BCS Rankings 2011: What Needs to Happen for Wisconsin to Play in Title Game?

If you consult the polls, you'll learn that the Wisconsin Badgers are a very, very good team. They're No. 4 in the AP poll, No. 4 in the USA Today poll and No. 4 in the Harris poll.

The BCS computers agree that Wisconsin is a very good team, but only to a degree. The first BCS rankings for the 2011 season were released on Sunday night, and they had Wisconsin at No. 6.

Alas, the computers just aren't sold on the Badgers. The Harris and USA Today polls—the only two human polls that are factored into the BCS rankings—may have Wisconsin at No. 4, but the BCS computers have Wisconsin at an average ranking of No. 11. One system ranked the Badgers as low as No. 17.

It's unfair, but there's no arguing with the BCS computers (that's a joke). The only thing the Badgers can worry about now is how their National Title dreams can be fulfilled.

That's where things get a little complicated.

The first and most obvious thing the Badgers have to do is win out. Because we think the Badgers are the best team in the Big Ten, this may not seem like such a tall task, but it is. The Badgers play four of their final six games in the road, including a tough one at Michigan State this Saturday.

Even if Wisconsin does finish the regular season undefeated, it will still have to win the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game on December 3rd. That could mean a rematch with Nebraska or Michigan State, and it could also mean a tilt with Michigan. All three are good teams.

Let's say Wisconsin actually pulls this off. Even then, a spot in the BCS title game is far from ensured.

This is because the Badgers need other teams to lose. The good news for them is that they know LSU and Alabama have to play each other, and the same is true of Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. Two of those teams are walking away with a loss.

Conceivably, that means Wisconsin could climb as high as No. 4, still two spots away from earning a spot in the title game. Jumping another spot will rely primarily on Boise State. The Badgers will either have to leapfrog Boise State in the rankings, or capitalize on a Broncos loss. The leapfrogging route seems more likely, as Wisconsin has a couple of games against ranked opponents to help its cause.

Even that isn't likely to be good enough. In order to make it as high as No. 1 or No. 2, somebody else is going to have to lose. Wisconsin will be on the outside looking in if two teams from the core four of LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State also finish undefeated.

A lot needs to happen, no doubt about that. Personally, I think too much has to happen for the Badgers to make it to the title game, but I think we can all agree that stranger things have happened.

At the very least, we can probably all agree that a playoff would solve all of this.

Rank	Team	BCS Average
1	LSU	.9522
2	Alabama	.9519
3	Oklahoma	.930
4	Oklahoma State	.857
5	Boise State	.803
6	Wisconsin	.771
7	Clemson	.758
8	Stanford	.748
9	Arkansas	.626
10	Oregon	.619
11	Kansas State	.569
12	Virginia Tech	.505
13	Nebraska	.497
14	South Carolina	.491
15	West Virginia	.373
16	Michigan State	.329
17	Texas A&M	.308
18	Michigan	.300
19	Houston	.286
20	Auburn	.265
21	Penn State	.231
22	Georgia Tech	.197
23	Illinois	.152
24	Texas	.135
25	Washington	.087