Is Ladainian Tomlinson No Longer a Viable Fantasy Force?

By Derek Lofland. (One of 14 Maniaxs' writers)

One of the hardest parts of having successful fantasy football teams is being able to identify which veteran still has another good year left in him, and which veteran is headed for the NFL Nursing Home.

When you guess wrong on a young player exploding, it is usually with a middle-to-late round pick.

When you guess wrong on a veteran, it is usually in the fist or second round.

Take Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson for example.

In 2005, Shaun Alexander had 1,880 yards rushing to go along with 27 rushing touchdowns.

Larry Johnson took over for an injured Priest Holmes and Johnson exploded for 1,750 yards rushing and 20 rushing touchdowns.

Those numbers made them the most sought after running backs in 2006 fantasy draft classes.

Larry Johnson put together another stellar year going for 1,789 yards and 17 rushing touchdowns.

Shaun Alexander was hurt the next year and limited to 896 yards rushing and seven rushing touchdowns.

In 2007, neither was able to get over 800 yards rushing or five rushing touchdowns.

Shaun Alexander appears to be done all together in 2008, and Larry Johnson has been hurt by poor play, a poor team, and poor personal conduct. He is near the end of his fantasy life and will be a late round pick in 2009.

The Fantasy Owners that were able to identify the fall of these titanic running backs were able to stay clear of some major disasters and keep their teams in contention.

The ones that drafted them in the first round hoping for a return to glory were left to find other options in the later round.

I can’t believe that we are even having to discuss this at this point, but with the season that both LaDainian Tomlinson and the Chargers are having it is fair to ask the question.

Are the days of L.T. being an automatic top five pick over?

I can see the look on Chargers fan’s faces already.

"What? What? What? His toe has been injured!"

"The Chargers' defense has been awful." "The guy is Hall of Fame caliber since his rookie season and you are ready to jump down his throat for one bad year?"

"How can you ask such a thing about a player that has accomplished so much?"

As a big fan of Brett Favre, I can understand where they are coming from.

I heard people say Favre was done in fantasy after bad 1999 and 2000 seasons. He went on to be a great fantasy quarterback from 2001-2004.

Then I heard it again after bad seasons in 2005 and 2006. To silence critics, he has comeback strong the last two years.

However, good fantasy owners have to be ruthless when it comes to these types of things.

The owners that are willing to ask the tough questions sooner than the people that operate their teams with a fan’s heart can avoid these pitfalls with greater ease.

While it hurts to pass on a good player in the first round, it hurts even more to get stuck with a dud.

First, let’s look at why L.T. is struggling.

There are a couple reasons why he is struggling, and there are a couple reasons that people are throwing around out there that aren’t true.

Let’s start with what is true.  

1) The toe 

The toe injury has been a problem this year and there is no way getting around that. LT just hasn’t looked like his old self this year. He isn’t cutting the same and doesn’t have the same explosion. The good thing is that a toe doesn’t worry me as much as a knee or a hamstring.

You would think the toe could get better next year and that this might just be an aberration. I haven’t read anything from a credible source that seems to think this is a career-ending injury that will plague LT in the future.

2) Age 

Let’s face it. LT isn’t a spring chicken anymore. Tomlinson is 29 this year and he turns 30 next year. That age is the big red flag that goes off for fantasy owners at the running back spot. It especially goes off for a guy that sees the ball so much.

LT has 2,607 carries in his career to go along with 502 receptions. That’s a lot of hits in an eight-year period. He has had over 300 carries every season and over 50 receptions every season. For the past eight years, he has virtually been the Chargers’ offense.

We don’t usually see monster production much past 30-year olds in terms of rushing yards. If you look at the Top 25 seasons in NFL history in terms of rushing yards gained the only person that was in their 30s was Tiki Barber, who had 1,860 yards rushing in 2005 at age 30. Curtis Martin was just outside the top 25 when he had 1,697 yard rushing at 31 years old. Barber was also just outside the top 25 when he had 1,662 yards at age 31.

The best running I could find in the Live Ball Era (after 1978) for a back late in a career was John Riggins in the 1983 and 1984 seasons. He had 1,347 yards rushing and a then NFL record 24 rushing touchdowns in 1983 at age 34.

He followed that up with 1,239 yards rushing and 14 rushing touchdowns in 1984. Keep in mind he was running behind The Hogs, one of the best offensive lines in NFL history. I don’t think this Charger’s line is on par with The Hogs.

There have been other successful 30-year-old backs. Walter Payton was also pretty effective in his 30s being named All-Pro in 1984 and 1985 at the age of 30 and 31.

Emmitt Smith had a decent year his last year in the league. He rushed for over 1,000 yards after 30 years old and even had 937 yards and nine touchdowns at 35 years old with the Cardinals.

Beyond that, some backs like Fred Taylor or Warrick Dunn can stick around and share time with younger backs. Fred Taylor made the Pro Bowl at 31 splitting time with Maurice Jones-Drew. There are guys like Jerome Bettis that can become touchdown threats. Bettis was huge in the Steelers’ 2004 run to the AFC Championship and 2005 run to the Super Bowl splitting time with Deuce Staley and then Willie Parker.

Remember though, good fantasy players vs. guys that help teams win games are two different things. In recent years, other than Tiki Barber and Curtis Martin, none of those accomplishments are worthy of first round picks. NFL History has not been kind to backs once they turn 30 years old.

3) The Offensive Line / Fullback

Running backs need a great offensive line to run behind. They also need a great fullback. Tomlinson has been really hurt by the departure of Lorenzo Neal. Neal has blocked for 1,000-yard rushers throughout his career. He opened holes for Eddie George before opening them for LT. His replacement, Jacob Hester, is a rookie and is not doing the same things Neal did. Don’t think that his departure to Baltimore and LT’s struggles don’t have anything to do with one another.

Also, the line just hasn’t blocked as well this year. Nick Hardwick is still playing at a high level. Marcus McNeil made the Pro Bowl each of his first two years. If he does this year, it will only be because of his name. I don’t think Mike Goff or Kris Dielman have played as well as they have in years past either. The holes just don’t seem to be there like they were in 2007 and especially 2006.

Therefore, that is why his production is down.

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