Andrew Luck Sweepstakes: Why It's St. Louis Rams, Then Everyone Else

Sure, it rhymes. And with nearly every talent evaluator, real or imagined, painting Andrew Luck as the next "sure-fire, can't-miss, totally-bust-proof, Peyton-Manning-clone" quarterback prospect, it's easy to get excited about watching him play for the home team.

But "Suck for Luck" is just plain dumb. And that's not a unique viewpoint. Luck himself recently called the notion "stupid," and he's right. No NFL team, no matter how dire the current circumstances, is going to throw in the towel six weeks into the season. Even 0-5 is no mathematical guarantee of missing the playoffs.

However, it's a pretty good start. Or, if you're the St. Louis Rams, it's a pretty awful one. After falling to the Green Bay Packers 24-3 and failing to find a win for the sixth straight week, the Rams are comfortably poised as the team to beat, or not beat, if you want Luck wearing your uniform in 2012.

Just look at the competition. The Minnesota Vikings have already notched one win, knocking off the Arizona Cardinals in sort-of-impressive fashion, and with Adrian Peterson in the backfield and not a single loss by more than a touchdown, it's not likely that they'll finish with only that one win.

The Carolina Panthers, another one-win team, just drafted Cam Newton, who's playing pretty well, by the way. They've got a few more wins in them, and they wouldn't cast Newton aside so quickly even if they did land the top overall pick. The Jacksonville Jaguars, even with their 1-5 mark, seem likely to steal another game in a weak division, with two more games against the Indianapolis Colts and a trip to the AFC North to play the Cleveland Browns. And the Cardinals just signed Kevin Kolb through 2016 with $21.5 million of his $65 million contract guaranteed, making it a bit of a financial strain to select another passer, no matter where they end up in April.

The Kansas City Chiefs, a franchise certainly primed for a passer of Luck's caliber, have won two in a row, and don't appear to be futile enough to slide to the front of the draft. They'd certainly take Luck if the opportunity presented itself, but the soft nature of the AFC West makes it hard to believe they're done winning in 2011.

That leaves the Miami Dolphins, Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts as the biggest threats to St. Louis' shot at landing Luck. An argument could be made for all three of those teams. The Broncos, with ex-Stanford QB John Elway running the show, seem to be a smart pick to tank, with Tim Tebow finally starting and the defense still hiding.

The Dolphins felt like a stronger contender for the first pick with Chad Henne under center, but Matt Moore has what it takes to get them there after pointing Carolina in the right direction a season ago. And the Colts, with their sporadic offense and dearth of talent, have proven Peyton Manning worthy of another NFL MVP award despite not playing a down this season.

Still, the Rams have the edge. The Colts have shown sparks lately, with Curtis Painter throwing five touchdowns against only one pick over his past three games. And even Denver looked energized last week after Tebow nearly led a late comeback over the Chargers, and with two weeks to prepare for Miami, a second win feels imminent. 

That still leaves the Dolphins, but even with Henne sitting, Miami still hasn't suffered the same sloppy offensive line play that the Rams have witnessed on a weekly basis. The 'Fins have at least one premier receiver, regardless of mental state, in Brandon Marshall, which gives them some hope of offensive balance with rookie Daniel Thomas in the backfield. Sure, Miami's just as winless as St. Louis, but they've been a tough out nearly every week. The same can't be said for the Rams, who've lost three of five games by at least 18 points.

There's still time, and playing in the NFC West could save Steve Spagnuolo and the Rams, but not at their current pace. Sam Bradford has gone under 200 yards three times, Steven Jackson is still looking for his first 100-yard game, the receiving corps is banged up and below average even when healthy and the defense is one of the five-worst in the league. 

As it turns out, "Suck for Luck" isn't all that great of a ride, even when it's unintentional.  Just ask the fans in St. Louis.