Fantasy Football: Week 14 Preview, Part Two

If last night doesn't tell you that we all know nothing about the AFC West, I don't know what will.

JaMarcus Russell might have been hurt just before the half, but his two quarters were ugly. This is a San Diego defense that everyone has been able to find holes against. Russell made it look like a stone wall. His offensive line was miserable, so that didn't help, but Russell made some stupid mistakes that cost his team.

They had trouble running the ball against a porous defense, and only Zach Miller had himself a decent game.

For San Diego, Darren Sproles ended up with more points than LaDainian Tomlinson by virtue of receiving stats. Tomlinson continues to perform well against the Raiders, registering his 22nd touchdown against them for his career. He ended with 91 yards, so overall not a bad day.

Vincent Jackson put up huge numbers, as Chris Chambers seemed to be the lucky one to draw Nnamdi Asomugha for most of the night. Not what I expected, especially where Jackson has torched several teams this season already with his height and speed. The Raiders backed off their typical bump-and-run coverage, giving San Diego receivers way too much space.

Let's check out the late games for Sunday.

Kansas City at Denver

Who to Start: Peyton Hillis, Eddie Royal, Tony Scheffler, Tyler Thigpen, Larry Johnson

Who to Sit: None

What to Expect: These two teams are going to be out to run all over each other.

Peyton Hillis should be able to crack 100 yards and score twice. He's still the better play in the Denver backfield. It only took injuries to three starters for fantasy owners to figure out who Mike Shanahan was going to go with in the backfield. Be grateful.

I'd look for Jay Cutler to have himself a day as well. He found Brandon Marshall seven times for 77 yards in their first meeting of the season, and that should be duplicated. Marshall hasn't topped 98 yards since Week Three, but this should be the week that changes. The Chiefs have no one to contain him.

Royal and Scheffler should be beneficiaries of a poor Kansas City defense as well. Scheffler is a solid tight end play, and Royal has been strong the last two weeks. Keep both active.

Tyler Thigpen is coming off his first rough outing of the season, but that shouldn't be a concern for owners. The Broncos can't stop the run or the pass. They gave up 100 yards in the first half to Thomas Jones last week, and they will be in for as long a day with the Johnson/Jamaal Charles combination. Johnson is the better play.

I'm concerned over the injury to Mark Bradley, enough to make him a borderline play at best. I'll take Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez all day though. Keep them active and look for each to score.

Sleeper Pickup: Hillis. This could be a big day for him.

Miami vs Buffalo at Toronto

Who to Start: Davone Bess, Chad Pennington, Ted Ginn, Ricky Williams

Who to Sit: Fred Jackson, Josh Reed

What to Expect: Expect that Miami will love the fact the weather won't be an issue.

Trent Edwards is going to be a game-time decision for the Bills, as he missed practice again yesterday. If he isn't able to go, you certainly have to lower expectations for the entire passing attack, likely making Lee Evans your only start. I'm still not a huge fan of Josh Reed even if Edwards is under center.

Marshawn Lynch should be fine, and will find the end zone with 80 or so yards. Miami has been tough against the run, but the Bills won't have many options other than handing the ball off. It probably means we'll see some of Jackson, but that wouldn't make me want to start him unless it's a REALLY deep league.

Chad Pennington and friends should enjoy this matchup. The Bills secondary is a mess, and that should mean bigger days for Ginn and Bess. Ginn will be able to find the end zone on one big play, as well as close in on 100 yards. Bess was targeted ten times last week, posting six receptions and 84 yards. He's going to see most of his value in PPR formats.

The turf surface should give Williams and Ronnie Brown good footing to run on. The roof will be closed, so that makes it better. Keep both active and look to Williams as a flex option in deep leagues.

Sleeper Pickup: Bess. He's certainly out to replace Greg Camarillo as the possession receiver.

New York Jets at San Francisco

Who to Start: Leon Washington, Jerricho Cotchery, Dustin Keller, Isaac Bruce, Shaun Hill, Vernon Davis

Who to Sit: Frank Gore (if you can)

What to Expect: Expect that Eric Mangini might read the scouting report this week. I hate that guy.

I don't see this as a good matchup for Gore. Gore has posted good numbers against bad defenses. The Jets do not qualify as a bad run defense. Even on the road, they'll be able to shut down Gore. If you can use someone else, I would avoid this one.

You beat the Jets by throwing the football, and everyone has been able to do that this season. In deep leagues, I would recommend Shaun Hill. He's had several solid weeks in a row, and is developing good rapport with Davis and Bruce. Both receivers are solid plays against such a weak secondary.

Use them with confidence in nearly any matchup, as the 49ers will be playing from behind and throwing the football even more than usual.

For the Jets, I'm starting Leon Washington because he's the most dynamic player on the team when he has the football. Thomas Jones is a must-start as well. Both should have solid days on the ground for the Jets.

Brett Favre knows that this secondary can be beaten, and he'll take advantage there as well. Laveranues Coles and Cotchery are good plays. I'm certainly starting Keller, as he's getting more regular looks each week. Expect Keller to find the end zone and Favre to top 250 yards.

Sleeper Pickup: Washington. He's still not widely owned and can do some damage.

New England at Seattle

Who to Start: Wes Welker, Jabar Gaffney, Sammy Morris, Deion Branch, John Carlson

Who to Sit: Maurice Morris, Julius Jones

What to Expect: Don't expect the Pats offense to repeat their performance against the Steelers. Don't expect that the Pats two new linebackers will make a difference on defense.

Let's start with the Pats. Get everyone in the pool. Matt Cassel is going to have much more fun this week than he did last week. The Seahawks have a beatable defense, and Cassel will top 300 yards with three scores in this one. Randy Moss and Gaffney certainly get in on the act.

Welker has been practicing, but certainly had his bell rung last week. I'm not saying he finds the end zone, but he should have enough receptions and yards to be a very useful play.

Sammy Morris is running the ball well for the Pats, and he finds the end zone twice. Kevin Faulk is a solid PPR play, as he gets the third down work for New England.

Matt Hasselbeck should be able to provide some numbers against the Patriots. He threw well against Dallas, and the Patriots secondary is in much the same shape. Branch was targeted ten times last week, and is a better play than Bobby Engram. He has something to prove against New England, and I think he'll top 80 yards with a score.

The prize, though, is Carlson. He scored in Week 12 and had over 100 yards against the Cowboys last week. Keep him active, he's earned the spot.

You don't beat New England running the football, and I'm holding off on the Seattle running game. The Patriots have been able to stop better teams from running on them. These two just don't have the legs for it.

Sleeper Pickup: Carlson. He's an emerging tight end, use him this week against a weak line backing core.

St. Louis at Arizona

Who to Start: Steve Breaston, Tim Hightower

Who to Sit: Donnie Avery

What to Expect: Don't expect any surprises.

The Rams have a bad defense, the Cardinals have a good offense. The key is to not over-think this one. You obviously start Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, and Larry Fitzgerald. I'm recommending Breaston because I do think that there will be enough offense to go around in this one for Arizona.

They get this one at home, and they continue to perform well there.

Hightower has been effective against sub-par teams, and he gets one here. The Cardinals should get up early and then look to control the clock. Hightower will benefit and find himself with 90 yards and a score by the end of the day.

I don't have much nice to say about the Rams at all. Donnie Avery is battling an injury, which sort of makes his last few weeks make sense. Steven Jackson should be a good play, simply because he's all the Rams have.

I wouldn't go and look for more to happen here than that. Keep everyone else reserved if you can.

Sleeper Pickup: Breaston. He gets looks every week, and is valuable in PPR formats. He should break 80 yards easily this week.

Dallas at Pittsburgh

Who to Start: Tashard Choice (if Barber is out), Mewelde Moore, Nate Washington, Ben Roethlisberger

Who to Sit: Willie Parker, Patrick Crayton, Roy Williams

What to Expect: Expect poor field conditions.

This is the week after they put the new field down over the old field because of the thousands of games the Steelers allow to be played on their home turf. Last year, we had the game where the punt stuck in the field. The weather isn't supposed to be that bad, but the footing still won't be that good.

I'm betting that Parker doesn't play, so I'm starting Mewelde Moore. Even when Parker has played, Moore has been given enough opportunities to do some damage. He should be a flex play in all formats at worst. I'm not starting Parker, even if he's active.

And why do we not start Parker? Because EVERYONE throws on the Cowboys. Roethlisberger came in around 200 yards against the Patriots, and he should hit 240 with three touchdowns against Dallas here. Washington, Santonio Holmes, and Hines Ward are all going to get in on the action in this one. Start them all.

You already are starting most of the Dallas passing game, but I'd hold back on Williams and Crayton. Keep Terrell Owens and Jason Witten involved in your lineups, as they will certainly be fine. Romo should be started, even if it is against Pittsburgh. Unless you have a better option at your disposal, he's an every-week player.

Marion Barber looks likely to play, and I'd start him. If not, Tashard Choice will get the carries and help carry your offense. He's a flex play whereas barber would be a top running back play.

Sleeper Pickup: Choice. He's now Barber's backup.

Washington at Baltimore

Who to Start: Joe Flacco, Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton

Who to Sit: Jason Campbell, Clinton Portis (if you can), Baltimore running backs

What to Expect: I like this one, because it should be a solid matchup in general between two teams that need a win.

Flacco looked good last week, and I think this matchup will suit him just fine. There was concern last week that the Redskins would be able to shut down Eli Manning, but he was able to throw on them in a tougher environment. At home, coming off a good game, I'll keep Flacco in there if I'm normally using him.

Mason, Clayton, and Todd Heap are all solid options for the passing game. I'm buying all three and using the receivers as flex options. Heap is coming alive after being left for dead most of the season. He's still a solid performing tight end.

Avoid the Baltimore running game. Even they don't know who is going to start or get carries.

For Washington, I'm avoiding most areas. I know they're a decent team, but I haven't seen enough to warrant starting Campbell or Santana Moss. With Portis having been hurt recently, I'd also look elsewhere for a running back if I had some good matchups. Portis will go up against one of the best run defenses in football. I don't see a good day for anyone concerned.

Sleeper Pickup: Clayton. He's performing, and has three touchdowns in the last two weeks.

Tampa Bay at Carolina

Who to Start: DeAngelo Williams, Muhsin Muhammad, Antonio Bryant, Warrick Dunn

Who to Sit: Jake Delhomme, Jeff Garcia

What to Expect: Expect defense to rule the day.

The Bucs are in the top ten against both the run and the pass. What's more, they have only allowed one rushing touchdown all season. While Williams could break through for 90 yards, a score just isn't likely. I'm keeping Jonathan Stewart down, and would only use Williams here.

As far as Delhomme, he's not going to find it much easier. The Bucs have defended the pass very well, and that means a likely long day for Steve Smith. I'd look to the secondary option, Muhammad, in this case for the touchdown that gets thrown. The best play for the Panthers offense will be in the kicking game. I think that says enough about that.

The story doesn't get better for Tampa. Garcia and Bryant were held down during the last meeting. I think Garcia still struggles, but is able to get the ball to Bryant more effectively this time around. I'd use Bryant, expecting five catches, 65 yards, and a touchdown.

The Bucs will look to do damage on the ground, and I still feel that Warrick Dunn is the way to go this time around. Dunn should have a solid day, as team's have been able to move the ball against the Panthers the last three weeks. His time may be short as starter, but while Cadillac Williams is getting healthy, he's the best they have.

Sleeper Pickup: Cadillac Williams. He's eventually going to be a factor, and I think that will happen sooner rather than later.

Enjoy the games!