Fantasy Football: Week 14 Preview, Part One

In some leagues, this kicks off the playoffs. For others, this is the one that wraps up the regular season. In any case, it has a lot on the line for many teams across all leagues. Can you really beat December football? It's just great stuff! Let's break it down.

Oakland at San Diego

Who to Start: Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas, Zach Miller, Ashley Lelie (Deep Leagues)

Who to Sit: Vincent Jackson, Philip Rivers, JaMarcus Russell

What to Expect: I can't get this AFC West.

Rivers has gone from a sure thing to an unknown. With Nnamdi Asomugha opposite Jackson most of the day, it certainly won't get any easier. It should free San Diego's Chris Chambers for some passes, but the Raiders have been better in the secondary than their record would have you believe.

Teams are beating Oakland by running the football. If you have options to use beyond Rivers and his receivers, I'd go that route. Gates is the best play.

LaDainian Tomlinson SHOULD have his best game of the season. The Raiders don't stop the run effectively. You'll likely have to start him, and this should be where that is rewarded. Don't go reaching for Darren Sproles unless in an injury bind.

For the Raiders, I would keep Russell down because there are plenty of better options, but Zach Miller is getting more work, and Lelie has found the end zone of late.

Lelie is more of a 12-team league play, but he's worth a look if you have the space and are in a PPR format. San Diego's secondary has been exposed as very weak this season. It's why I like Miller as well.

McFadden and Fargas should be flex options in virtually all formats. Fargas will get the yards again, and McFadden will find the end zone. Look for 90 yards from Fargas with a potential score, and 70 combined rushing and receiving yards from McFadden with a definite score.

Sleeper Pickup: Lelie. The Chargers have been thrown on most of the season because they give the quarterback too much time. Russell is elusive, and that will create more havoc and give him the time to find Lelie down field.

Jacksonville at Chicago

Who to Start: Marcedes Lewis, Matt Jones, Devin Hester, Rashied Davis, Kyle Orton
 
Who to Sit: Fred Taylor
 
What to Expect: When we look here, there should be some passing by the Jags, and plenty of offense for the Bears.

We've seen teams try to run on the Bears, but to no avail. That is going to be a problem for Jacksonville as they aren't built to throw the football in that manner. It's why I keep Fred Taylor down this week. Taylor doesn't have the receiving ability of Maurice Jones-Drew and that makes him less effective in this matchup.

Jones-Drew is worth the play because of the various ways he can get yards.

Garrard will need to find Lewis, Jones, and Reggie Williams regularly in order to open up anything for the running game. I'm not convinced he'll be lights-out, but I'd keep Jones and Lewis in my lineup. Williams is a reach play, and should only be grabbed if you are in a bind. For playoff matchups, this is not the way to go.

The Bears shouldn't have any more problems than the Texans did. Matt Forte is a great play. I'd look for Rashied Davis and Hester to have big days, and Kyle Orton will be very effective. There is nothing about this matchup that you shouldn't like if you own any Bears players. Keep all Chicago players active.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Lewis. I like this one for him. The Bears struggle in stopping the pass, and Lewis is the most sure-handed receiver in the red zone.

Minnesota at Detroit

Who to Start: Gus Frerotte, Bernard Berrian, Visanthe Shiancoe, Kevin Smith
 
Who to Sit: Daunte Culpepper
 
What to Expect: Truth be told, much of this hinges on the suspensions of the Williams' Wall.

I'm only using Kevin Smith if the two Williams' guys — Pat and Kevin — have to serve their suspensions. If that's not the case, the Vikings' run defense is too good for me to risk this late in the season. Smith has been good, and is getting stronger as the season progresses, but the Vikings are very good against the run.

The only Lions player you want in the passing game is Calvin Johnson. I think that pretty much sums it up. It doesn't matter how well or poorly the Vikings' pass defense is playing, this is not a matchup to exploit.

The Lions, however, should be exploited. I'm starting most Vikings. Obviously, you have Peterson going in the run game. I'm even starting Taylor in deep leagues, if you need a flex option. I think he'll get enough touches to be worth the play, especially in PPR leagues.

On the passing side, Frerotte is OKAY in 12-team leagues for a start against the Lions. He looked good enough against the Bears last week, and the Lions are worse. Berrian is his most consistent target, and should be started here as well. Sidney Rice and Bobby Wade are too inconsistent for plays, but I'd expect one of them to have a good game.

A tight end like Shiancoe will be valuable as well.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Shiancoe. He'll find the end zone against the defense. I could find the end zone against this defense.

Houston at Green Bay

Who to Start: Donald Driver, Owen Daniels, Donald Lee
 
Who to Sit: Kevin Walter
 
What to Expect: You beat the Packers by running the football. 

Steve Slaton should be the workhorse all game. Slaton beat the Jags for a 100-yard day, and this start against the Packers should produce similar results. Slaton has the opportunity to score twice in this one as well. Great matchup.

I'm not high on Sage Rosenfels or Matt Schaub this week. The Packers stop the pass rather effectively. I'll play Daniels and Andre Johnson, but look to avoid Walter. On the road, in the cold, something doesn't add up in this case for the Texans' passing game. 

Aaron Rodgers and friends will be in for a nice day. I'm playing Driver, Lee, and Greg Jennings for certain in the passing game. They have the tools and the ability to make this a long day for a depleted Texans' secondary. Look for Driver and Jennings to find the end zone. I think Rodgers hits for three touchdown passes and finds Lee as well.

That statement is going to be more true as we find out more on Ryan Grant. Regardless, he isn't going to be 100 percent. Brandon Jackson owners should monitor this one, and use Jackson if Grant is expected to not play. Grant, otherwise, is a decent play. I think he finds the end zone, but I'm holding down his yards to 65 based on his health.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Lee. He likes the cold, and the Texans have given up big games to tight ends thanks to weak linebacker play.

Cleveland at Tennessee

Who to Start: Justin Gage, Brandon Jones, Kerry Collins
 
Who to Sit: All Browns
 
What to Expect: Boy, this could be ugly for Cleveland.

We can sum up the Browns very quickly: Ken Dorsey is playing quarterback. How much more do you need to know? Seriously, avoid playing any Browns. Bench Edwards, Lewis, Winslow, and anyone else. That simple.

The Titans are going to be in for a good day. Their defense is the best play of the week, no doubt about that. Offensively, you have to start both LenDale White and Chris Johnson, and they will both score and combine for around 200 yards of rushing.

I'm starting Kerry Collins as well. The Browns are just going to struggle here. Brandon Jones and Justin Gage should be in for decent days. I like Gage better than Jones overall, but Jones has managed to put up several weeks of good numbers. He's clipping either 40 yards or grabbing a touchdown each week. In deep leagues, he's a good play.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Jones. As stated above, he seems to be finding various ways to get the ball each week. Owners need to take advantage.

Cincinnati at Indianapolis

Who to Start: Anthony Gonzalez, Dominic Rhodes
 
Who to Sit: All Bengals
 
What to Expect: I feel like this is a repeat of what we talked about above.

You beat the Colts by running on them. Without Bob Sanders, they're not able to bring up the extra man to protect against the run. You would think that would mean a decent day for Cedric Benson, but I just don't see it. I'm certainly not confident enough to put him into the lineup during a playoff week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick should find T.J. Houshmandzadeh for a score, but the Colts have done very well defending against the pass this season. Start Housh if you must, but don't look to Chad Johnson or anyone else for additional help in this matchup.

For the Colts, I would start everyone. Yes, Manning seems to be off-target on many of his deeper throws, but it's not enough to warrant benching any of his receivers in this one.

I'd use Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark, and Gonzalez without hesitation here. They all will be in for fine days, as Manning puts up three touchdown passes at home in this one. Gonzalez is a better PPR play, but use him in all formats as a flex.

Just remember what Joe Flacco did to this Bengals team last week.

When it comes to running the football, I think there will be enough touches for Joseph Addai and Rhodes here. Rhodes is a deeper league play, but worth it if you are struggling with injuries and need to fill in.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Rhodes. It's a feeling. I think he hauls in 40 receiving yards and runs for 40 to 50 more.

Atlanta at New Orleans

Who to Start: Matt Ryan, Michael Jenkins, Harry Douglas, Lance Moore, Pierre Thomas
 
Who to Sit: Jerious Norwood
 
What to Expect: Expect these two teams to put up some offense.

Everyone seems to be enjoying their time against the Saints secondary, so don't expect the Falcons to be any different. You're already starting Roddy White, but other guys are coming to the party.

Harry Douglas put up 92 yards in week 12 and scored a touchdown in week 13. I'd expect another good day for him against the Saints. Jenkins as well. Both are WR3 or flex options.

I'm playing Matt Ryan and expecting him to throw for at least two touchdowns to go with 265 yards. I have a feeling there could be a third here, but two is the sure thing.

Start Michael Turner and then enjoy the ride. I think that covers Atlanta's running game.

The Saints should have more success throwing the football than the Chargers did. The Falcons continue to be in the lower half of the league in defending the pass.

Drew Brees should have no problems finding Marques Colston and Moore regularly. I like Jeremy Shockey as well, so keep him active as a tight end option in this one. Not much to hate in the Saints' passing game.

The running game will be led by Pierre Thomas with Deuce McAllister suspended. Reggie Bush's return makes this easier, but the Saints are still going to work him in slowly. He'll have an expanded role this week, but I'm still not high on Bush being a starter this week.

Brees will throw more to compensate for a more limited running attack. Thomas should be good for 70 yards with a score.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Moore. McAllister being out gives him another boost in value until Bush is healthy. Please, pick him up so I can stop talking about him.

Philadelphia at New York Giants

Who to Start: Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, DeSean Jackson, Kevin Boss, Domenick Hixon
 
Who to Sit: L.J. Smith, Jason Avant
 
What to Expect: The Giants and Eagles are both in the top 10 when it comes to defending the pass, so the starts seem counter-intuitive.

That said, these teams put up some points when they last faced each other, and the Giants haven't been solid against good passing teams. The Eagles give up about 1.5 touchdown passes a game, so while yardage might not be there, touchdowns should be.

Eli Manning may not break 230 yards, but he should throw for two touchdown passes. I like Kevin Boss and Domenick Hixon to come up with the plays.

Hixon has played well in place of Plaxico Burress most of the season. No worries on keeping him in the lineup. I love Boss as a tight end play. He's making some impressive catches, and Manning is trusting him more each week.

I'm starting Brandon Jacobs this week without a worry, and Derrick Ward seems to be a solid option in PPR leagues, as evidenced by his stats the last two weeks.

For the Eagles, I like what we saw out of McNabb last week. Sure, the Cardinals' secondary is weak, but McNabb was out to prove something. He'll play like that again here as the Eagles need him to push them towards any shot at the playoffs. Look for another 240-yard day with two touchdown passes and a likelihood of a third.

Jason Avant is on this list only because of the week he had against the Cardinals. Don't look for a repeat. Hank Baskett and Jackson, as well as Kevin Curtis, are the players to use in the Philly passing game. Baskett is less of an option this week, but the other two are decent plays in most formats.

Brian Westbrook should be in for a decent day, and you're playing him anyway.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Boss and Hixon. With Burress out, these guys are going to be the primary beneficiaries. Being obvious doesn't make it less true.