Who To Start, Who To Sit–Week 14

Quarterbacks

Start:  Matt Cassel, New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks. After two straight 400 yard games Cassel was unable to do anything against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 13.  Of course, most quarterbacks have also struggled against Pitt.  But Cassel has had some big games against some average defenses and the Seahawks are far from average.  The Seahawks are fantasy gold for all quarterbacks as shown by Tony Romo on Thanksgiving and Kurt Warner two weeks before.  Hell, even Jason Campbell threw a touchdown against the Seahawks and he only has four in the last seven weeks.  Cassel should be able to tear up the ‘Hawks and throw for at least 250 yards and two scores.

Start:  Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers vs. Houston Texans. Rodgers has seven touchdowns in the last three games and he goes against a Texans’ secondary that has allowed 18 passing touchdowns this season.  Rodgers is one of my favorite quarterbacks of 2008 for the way that he handled the impossible situation handed him by Brett Favre, and he will have another big game this week against Houston.

Sit:  Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Dallas Cowboys. Where have the Steelers had the most trouble this season?  Against teams that are great at putting pressure on the quarterback.  They lost to the Eagles and Giants who are third in fourth in the NFL at sacking the quaterback.  This week they face Dallas who has the second most sacks in the NFL.  Stud pass rusher DeMarcus Ware should be able to play this week, which spells trouble for Big Ben.  Don’t expect a great statistical game, and the Steelers have been playing so many quality teams that I wouldn’t be surprised if they laid an egg here.

Sit:  Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants. I know I wrote about McNabb earlier, but I just don’t see him as “back.”  He was a hair away from being benched for the season and most likely run out of town before that game against the Cardinals.  Now we can’t just forget about that game, but there are two things to consider about it.  First, Brian Westbrook owned that game.  He was crushing the Cards and opened everything else up for Donovan and the receivers.  And second, no one has allowed more touchdown passes than Arizona.  Their 26 is far above the next closest, which is San Diego at 21 TD passes.  The Giants are one of the best defenses and should do a good job against Westbrook as they are among the best against the pass as well.  Look for no more than 200 yards and only one TD for McNabb this week.

Running Backs

Start:  Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints. There haven’t been too many bad games on the game log for Turner this season, and I don’t see a letdown as the Falcons look to keep themselves in the race for the NFC South.  The first time that these two teams faced each other Turner ran for 96 yards and a touchdown.  After scoring seven touchdowns in three games, Turner didn’t have a score last week but don’t expect that trend to continue.  Look for Turner to break the 100 yard plateau and score a minimum of one time.

Start:  Peyton Hillis, Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs. The biggest surprise at the running back position this season?  It would be hard to argue against Peyton Hillis.  In college he was the fullback behind Darren McFadden and Felix Jones at Arkansas and now he is outperforming both guys in the pros.  In the last three weeks, Hillis has run for over 250 yards and scored four times.  The putrid Chiefs run defense has been overtaken by the even worse Lions run defense for the worst in the league, but they are still horrible.  Look for Hillis to break 100 yards again and score at least once.

Start:  Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings. This is more for news than me actually thinking that Smith will have a good game.  It came down today that the six players in the doping scandal were all suspended.  Among those players are the anchors to the Vikings’ stellar run defense, Pat and Kevin Williams.  Without those two guys in there for the rest of the season, Minnesota should really struggle to stop the run.  All players are looking for an injunction that might keep them playing, but I wouldn’t count on it saving these guys.  For the rest of the year, the Vikings’ run defense takes a huge hit and you can now feel safe starting running backs against them.

Sit:  Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Jets. The Jets are among the best run defenses in the entire league and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Gore go for 50 yards rushing or less.  Coming off a loss that should give the Jets a wakeup call, look for them to be even tougher against the run.  They just gave up over 100 yards to Peyton Hillis, so they should have extra focus at stopping the 49ers running game in Week 14.

Sit:  Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills. Regardless of the Bills loss at home to the Niners last week, Buffalo is still a team to play for road teams, even if the game is across the border in Canada.  The Bills held Frank Gore in check last week, and you can expect them to do the same to Brown in Week 14.   Brown has had a great season aided by the new Wildcat formation, but this is a really tough divisional game and he does still split some carries with Ricky Williams.  I don’t see Brown scoring this Sunday, and he might not even top 75 yards on the ground.

Wide Receivers

Start:  Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts vs. Cincinnati Bengals. I know, I know Wayne owners, he has been really tough to live with this season.  Wayne was the top receiver off the board in a lot of drafts, and his inconsistency has been maddening.  But it’s the Bengals for crying out loud.  If Peyton and the boys can’t rip up the Bungles, who are they going to beat in the playoffs?  Start Wayne with supreme confidence.

Start:  Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos. Denver might have held the Jets’ offense in check last week, but that is about the only team that they have been able to do that to all season long.  They are sixth from last in the NFL against the pass, and Tyler Thigpen has emerged as a legitimate quarterback in this league.  He was impressive as a rookie and now he has already surpassed his yardage and touchdowns from last year.  The Broncos really struggle against the pass after all their injuries and Bowe should have at least six catches for 75 yards and a score.

Sit:  Lee Evans, Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins. Trent Edwards, J.P. Losman, it doesn’t really matter.  The Bills have been in an incontrollable tailspin since they started the season 5-1 and it hit rock bottom losing to the 49ers at home.  Evans hasn’t scored since Week 7, and with the uncertainty at the quarterback position I wouldn’t expect him to hit pay dirt this week either.  This should be a hard played division game where the first team who hits 20 points should win the game.  Evans might top 75 yards, but without a touchdown you should be able to find a better option.

Sit:  Braylon Edwards, Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans. First Derek Anderson was wildly inconsistent, then Brady Quinn hurt his finger.  Now Anderson is hurt and will miss the rest of the season.  Who is the next QB in Cleveland?   Sadly, it will be Ken Dorsey behind center for the Browns in Week 14.  Between Edwards’ inability to hold on to the ball and Dorsey’s lack of talent equals a rough end of the season for Braylon.

Tight End

Start:  Dustin Keller, New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers. Keller is now officially the favorite target of Brett Favre.  He has six catches in four straight weeks, and he should continue that streak this week against a susceptible Niners defense.  The Jets will have plenty of motivation to bounce back from that tough loss to Denver last week, and you can expect Keller to be a big part of the game plan.  He will continue his streak by having at least six catches for at least 90 yards and almost definitely a touchdown.

Sit:  John Carlson, Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots. Seriously, he is the leading receiver from Seattle this season, and has been even more of a factor when Matt Hasselbeck has been the quarterback.  In Week 13, Carlson even broke the 100 yard threshold.  Even though Hasselbeck is back the ‘Hawks still suck and the pass game is still struggling.  Without any other real option to guard against, look for the Pats to try to take Carlson out of the game and you can expect about three catches for 40 yards from Seattle’s tight end.

As always, your comments and questions (adds/drops, lineup advice, etc.) are welcome at [e-mail].