Michael Vick: Why Fantasy Owners Are Kicking Themselves for Drafting Eagles QB

We were previously told to jump on the Vick bandwagon, because last season's top scorer was primed for another big year, that the injury risk was overstated, and the potential upside would carry owners all the way to Titletown. Forget "safe" picks like Adrian Peterson; bold calls win championships.

After five weeks of action, I have a question for fantasy owners: How do you feel about owning Vick now?

The upside was easy to sell. Aside from his prolific rushing production, for the first time in Vick's extraordinary career he began to look like an accomplished pocket passer. In 11 and a bit games last season, Vick threw for 3,018 yards, 21 touchdowns and six interceptions. Extending these numbers over 16 games is to pretend Vick a player he is not, but were he available all season his numbers extrapolate to 4,390 yards, 30 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Pretty impressive, I’m sure you’ll agree.

What is missing from the high-level analysis is that Vick gorged on some of the worst pass defenses in the NFL in 2010; against Houston (32nd ranked), Washington (31st), Jacksonville (28th) and Dallas (26th) he threw over half of his touchdowns (11 of 21), and there were no guarantees that the Eagles' schedule would throw up a series of cupcakes again this year.

Another worrying trend leaps out on closer inspection; in the first ten weeks Vick managed to throw zero interceptions, then six in five games from week 11. To draft him again this year, you had to ignore the nagging suspicion that Vick was starting to get worked out by opposing defenses. Watching his four-pick performance in Buffalo on Sunday won't make those fears disappear any time soon. Old habits appear to be re-emerging; the gun-slinging style of the Falcons era is creeping back into his game, which will frustrate head coach Andy Reid no end.

Naysayers will be pointing to Vick's fragility this season, having been knocked out of two games already with head and hand injuries, and boasting to owners that they "told you so." The truth is, other than Berry, who didn't see this coming?

In eight seasons, Vick has only once made it through a full NFL schedule without missing games due to injury. In 2010 he was the fifth most sacked quarterback in the NFL with 34 take-downs, despite his rib cartilage issues limiting him to 11 games. Christopher Harris of ESPN cites NFL stats showing Vick as the most hit quarterback in the league on pass plays along with David Garrard, and this is before factoring in any tackles on the 100 rush attempts from last year.  

Then, there's the small matter of Dan Marino's single-season yards record, which is looking increasingly under threat from a number of quarterbacks this year, just not Michael Vick. After watching the jaw-dropping numbers produced by Tom Brady and Drew Brees so far this season—both of whom were available later than Vick in the majority of fantasy drafts—you could be currently sitting on a team with elite production from say, Ray Rice and Drew Brees. How many games have owners of Vick and Frank Gore won this year?

And it's not just the usual suspects topping the scoring charts. Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford and Ryan Fitzpatrick—names which would have been draft afterthoughts for most owners—are barely distinguishable from the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers in fantasy terms. 

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but if Vick owners had their time all over again, you can be sure that "safe" Adrian Peterson would be topping their re-draft lists.