BCS Standings 2011: Does No. 1 in Mid-October Mean No. 1 in January?

It's official and it's October and the BCS hype is in full chatter mode.

Sunday nights in TV land will be forever changed until the week after the New Year.  That’s when the rights to the BCS No. 1 ranking will be officially earned and the stadium lights will shut down until next season.

In this land where the leaves are a’changin' color, how accurate are these mid-October rankings in predicting the final winner?  

With pen in hand, we’ve tackled the challenge.  Our research reveals a few surprises.  There are years when the national champion was indeed among one of the top five in the October standings.  And there are other times when a fall BCS ranking doesn't amount to an official's tote filled with bean bags.

Settle back in your recliner and peruse the history books with us...

BCS Standings Versus Final: 2005

It was 2005 and the USC Trojans were on fire.

The Pete Carroll-coached team was stacked with an army of return starters and expectations for a repeat national championship. This was an explosive team that included an offense led by 2004 Heisman Trophy winner Matt Leinart and the now scandal-laced Reggie Bush.

In October, the BCS rankings were revealed. The Trojans were ranked at the top.  Below them at No. 2 was Texas, a team with another highly touted quarterback named Vince Young.  Following in the rankings was Virginia Tech (No. 3), Georgia (No. 4), and Alabama at No. 5.  

The season ended in the likes of a Disney movie. 

National Championship Game:

USC versus Texas

National Champion:

Texas

Summary:

This was truly one of college football's greatest games.

Keith Jackson called his final game at this national championship mic in a storybook Rose Bowl setting.  The battle of No. 1 and No. 2 team played on for 60 minutes, literally.  It was fourth down with five yards to go.  Longhorns' quarterback Vince Young scrambled to score on an eight-yard touchdown run with 19 seconds to win the game. Stunned by the Longhorns' victory, USC fans sat in disbelief. Texas became No. 1 in the BCS. Ironically, USC's Bush won the Heisman that year, which he had to return years down the road.  

BCS Standings Versus Final: 2006

Fall's first BCS rankings for 2006 gave the Ohio State Buckeyes the No. 1 rank.  This team stayed that way for the entire 2006 season.  Led by quarterback Troy Smith, a Heisman trophy winner, Ohio State played to perfection, ending regular season play at 12-0 and a national championship meeting with the Florida Gators.

So where were the Gators in the October BCS standings?  If you look, you won't find them in the Top 5.  Following the Buckeyes at No. 1 were the USC Trojans at No. 2, Michigan at No. 3, Auburn at No. 4, and West Virginia at No. 5. Enter: Florida ranked at No. 6.  

National championship game:

Florida versus Ohio State

National champion:

Florida

Summary:

This was a game that had fans from both teams chomping on their Tostitos.

The Buckeyes struck first when receiver Ted Ginn Jr. returned the opening kickoff 93 yards for a touchdown.  But this would be a play plagued with a costly blunder.  During the celebration, Ginn was injured and taken out for the remainder of the game.  

Florida quickly rebounded with their quarterback Chris Leak leading the Gators and a young Tim Tebow anxiously awaiting his turn from the sidelines.  At the end of the half, Tebow sprung, tossing the ball in his signature style for a 1-yard touchdown pass.  The Gators took a 34-14 lead at the half. There was no score in the third quarter and the single score in the entire second half came again from Tebow with 10 minutes left.  He bolted through the Buckeyes' defense for a one yard touchdown that gave the Gators the win and a National Championship (41-14). 

BCS Standings Versus Final: 2007

The Buckeyes of Ohio State were back again as the BCS first premier team in college football in the 2007 October standings.  They were followed by South Florida at No. 2, Boston College at No. 3, LSU at No. 4, and Oklahoma at No. 5.

Those standings were shaken as the season progressed and surprise, the SEC once again emerged at the top when the dust settled.  By virtue, the Big 10 winner (Ohio State) earned a trip to the championship game with one loss.  But that didn't overshadow an LSU team that also sneaked into the Big Easy with two losses.

National championship game:

LSU vs Ohio State

National champion:

LSU

Summary: 

The Louisiana Superdome gave LSU a home-field advantage.  From the game's opening festivities—including the national anthem being played by the New Orleans Preservation Hall Jazz Band—the Tigers were energized by a strong fan base who embraced them from the start.  Beanie Wells, the Buckeyes' running back scored the first touchdown with a 65-yard run into the end-zone. The Tigers' Ricky Jean-Francois blocked a 38-yard field goal attempt in the second quarter and the LSU fan base began to verbally resonate throughout the Dome after their team scored 24-consecutive points in the second quarter. The game ended with an LSU 38-24 victory and a deflated Buckeye fan base.   

BCS Standings Versus Final: 2008

The orange and blue of the Florida Gators was omitted from the Top 5 of the BCS October standings in 2008. Instead, we note that the Texas Longhorns claim this initial top rank.  The Gators crept into the National Championship game with a one-point loss to the Ole Miss Rebels in regular season play and hence, the infamous Tim Tebow rally speech became forever etched into Florida's history books.

Ironically, Oklahoma's quarterback, Sam Bradford helped lead the Sooners into a history book of their own, scoring 702 points in this season—the highest scoring team in NCAA history.  The first week's BCS standings went like this:  (No. 1) Texas, (No. 2) Alabama, (No. 3) Penn State, (No. 4) Oklahoma and (No. 5) Oklahoma.

National championship game:

USC vs. Florida

National champion:

Florida

Summary:

Playing in Dolphin Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL, the Gators relished this location and its home-crowd advantage.  The first quarter was lackluster with both teams coming up scoreless. But that would soon change.  The Gators held the Sooners twice inside the 5-yard-line in the second quarter.  

Led by an emerging Tebow, Florida dominated this game in all areas to claim the national championship with a score of 24-14.   

BCS Standings Versus Final: 2009

The Florida Gators held onto their top spot as a favorite in October's 2009 BCS rankings, but it wasn't long before the Crimson Tide of Alabama would prove their worth with a perfect season.  In a story with its ending determined in Atlanta, the rankings fell in this order: (No. 1) Florida, (No. 2) Alabama, (No. 3) Texas, (No. 4) Boise State, (No. 5), Cincinnati.  

National championship game:

Alabama vs Texas

National champion:

Alabama

Summary:

To get to the National Championship game, Alabama had to first, defeat a powerful Florida team in the SEC conference championship game.  This proved to be a game of firsts.  For one, it was the first time any conference championship game had featured two undefeated teams. Also the meeting of Alabama and Florida defined the first time the AP poll that No. 1 played the AP No. 2 apart from the BCS Championship Game (since 2006).  Alabama came out victorious defeating the Gators 37-21 for a trip to the Rose Bowl in Pasadena.  

In a game-ending injury that is still baffling to this day, Texas quarterback Colt McCoy was taken out in the first quarter.  Hit by Alabama defender Marcel Dareus, the injury was defined as a nerve pinching injury to his throwing shoulder. Hence, the Longhorns' attempt to overcome Bama's beefy defense and an offense that was nearly perfect, washed out to sea.  The Tide rolled on to win their 13th national championship.   

BCS Standings Versus Final: 2009

Although the crisp fall air of October had Oklahoma football fans looking ahead toward a BCS national championship, a few bumps in the road led to a surprising outcome in January.  With Oklahoma given the No. 1 BCS nod in their first standings, Oregon followed at No. 2, Boise at No. 3, and Auburn—the sleeper National Champion—emerged as No. 4 early on.  

The Horned Frogs of TCU made the cut at No. 5, and as the season wore on, it became clearly evident that the Auburn Tigers were heading toward a greatness they hadn't experienced in many years.

National championship game:

Auburn vs. Oregon

National champion:

Auburn

Summary:

Auburn took a 16-11 lead in the first half but met the challenges of a fighting Duck offense in the last minutes to win this one in Glendale. 

It was Auburn's final possession that sealed the win in a play that left fans breathless.  Auburn's Michael Dyer appeared to be tackled after a six yard run.  He fell on top of a defender but his knees didn't touch the ground.  Dyer—at the urging of his sideline—got up and ran 37 yards down the field. The play was reviewed and Dyer's run allowed Auburn to kick a field goal just as time expired for the win and national championship!