Boxing Prediction: Chad Dawson vs. Bernard Hopkins

The Story

Chad Dawson was in the top-10 best pound-for-pound rankings before his fight against Jean Pascal on August 14, 2010. However, when he faced his opponent in Montreal, Dawson boxed passively and only threw 436 punches. Pascal was able to land the best shots, and the fight was stopped in Round 11 due to an injury.

Pascal moved on to Bernard Hopkins. After sending down the legend twice in the early rounds, Pascal struggled late in the fight, resulting in a draw. At first, the WBC decided not to allow a revenge fight, but quickly changed their mind after some pressure from Hopkins’ organization.

On May 21, Dawson and Hopkins were both in the ring, but fighting different opponents. Dawson was less than impressive against a less-talented Adrian Diaconu.

As for Hopkins, it was a magic night. He stayed toe-to-toe with Pascal and unveiled his manpower with a few now-famous push-ups made toward the end of the fight. Hopkins won a close unanimous decision to become the oldest champion in boxing history.

Actually, it’s not the first time that I've see an older fighter winning against a much younger and powerful opponent. It’s not even the first time that I've seen a challenger going down twice and then stepping up to dominate his opponent. Do you remember Rocky Balboa?

Exactly, usually it only happens in movies! Is HBO trying to set up a new movie series by fixing all those fights?

On October 15, at the Staples Center, Chad Dawson (30-1-0 17 knockouts) will now fight the legend, Bernard Hopkins (52-5-2, 32 knockouts).

Why Hopkins Can Win

Once again, we have to point out Bernard Hopkins’ experience.

Even if he is behind in the fight, he is always dangerous. He might lack offensive talent, but he is tough as hell. There’s one thing we are sure with B-Hop: He has the desire to win. Can we say the same thing about Chad Dawson? I don’t know anymore.

Slowing down the fight’s pace will be key for Hopkins, something he will attempt to achieve by holding his opponent. Dawson isn’t a good inside fighter, so Hopkins will try to get inside, land some punches and then he will grab him.

B-Hop will try to make it a wrestling match. Look for him to try to intimidate Dawson and maybe land a few head butts. It’s all about his experience.

Finally, Hopkins will try to land his right hand often. In recent fights, it has been his most effective punch (after the head butt), so watch him endeavor to place it in every round.

Dawson’s Fight Plan

Before this fight, Dawson fired his coach, Emmanuel Steward. This change is a good one for Dawson. Don’t get me wrong—Steward is a great coach and has done marvelous things with boxers like Lennox Lewis, but his style doesn’t match Chad Dawson’s.

It was clearly a bad combination, which we witnessed in his fight against Diaconu. Dawson got back with his former trainer, John Scully, as the duo had resounding success in Dawson’s early career.

Chad Dawson has three advantages in this fight: He is younger (obviously, it would be impossible to be older), faster and more talented than Hopkins. Yes, I have said it—Chad Dawson is more talented than Bernard Hopkins.

Hopkins is a master when it comes to defense. However, in terms of offensive talent, Hopkins isn’t even close to Dawson.

During his last fight against Adrian Diaconu, Dawson looked bored. It wasn’t his best fight, but he was clearly superior to his opponent. 

Dawson landed 240 punches out of 620 (39 percent), while Diaconu only hit him with 106 punches out of 591 (18 percent). For this fight, Dawson says he wants to throw anywhere from 1,000 to 1,200 punches. To achieve this number, he will have to throw a hundred punches in each round.

He clearly needs to stay active and control this fight. Against Glen Johnson, he threw 802 punches in the first bout and 756 punches in the second one. However, against Pascal, he only threw 436 punches.

In summary, the fight plan for Dawson is simple: He needs to control the pace of the fight (fast pace), control the distance (far from Hopkins) and use the jab efficiently. He needs to throw a few jabs, follow with a quick combination and then get away from Hopkins with a side step.

The Conclusion

My main problem with Dawson is his attitude—it seems like he doesn’t want to hurt his opponent. Also, when the fight gets less active, he falls asleep. If he sleeps in front of Hopkins, it will be his worst nightmare ever. However, if Dawson fights 12 active rounds, Hopkins has no chance. Can he do it? He hasn’t shown anything good for the past two years.

Dawson said that he had outside distractions before fighting Pascal. Therefore, he only trained for four weeks. How can we be sure that his mind will be one-hundred percent focused on this fight?

In 2008 and 2009, Dawson actively tried to have a fight with Hopkins. However, the legend refused. Now that he is the champion, Hopkins is ready to fight a boxer who is 17 years younger than him.

How can you stop someone with the experience of a 46-year-old and the shape of a 25-year-old? I don’t know which magical potion Hopkins drank, but once he retires, he will make a fortune by selling it. It will be the new Viagra of this decade! At 50 years old, feel as powerful as if you were 25!

If you want follow the fight next Saturday, I will be describing it live on Twitter!