NFL Picks Week 5: Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football

The Chicago Bears (2-2) and Detroit Lions (4-0) will close out Week 5 of the 2011 NFL season on ESPN's Monday Night Football with the opening kickoff scheduled for 8:30 EDT from inside Ford Field.

Las Vegas oddsmakers opened up Detroit as six-point home favorites, which has been bet down to five at most sports books, while a couple places are offering 48 for the total.

I believe the total in this contest has been sent out with an inflated number, as both teams have a high-profile quarterback, while the public loves wagering on the "over" in primetime events.

It's important to note that four of the first five Monday Night Football games this year have gone over, including last week's 24-17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers win over Indianapolis Colts, creeping just above the posted total of 40.

The public knows this and will bet accordingly.

When examining the last 10 meetings between these two NFC North rivals, this week's number is two points higher than any previous total.

That fact alone offers incredible value to a bettor that is looking to play the under.

Smart money is clearly involved in playing this total, as each time the number has moved up to 48, it's been immediately knocked down.

That's definitely not a public move when over 80 percent of total wagers in this game have come in on the over.

All four of Detroit's games have gone above the total, but the last two were definitely unique circumstances, as the team needed to virtually throw on every down to overcome large halftime deficits.

I don't expect either side to jump out to a huge lead in a rivalry game of this magnitude, which would suggest that the Lions will be more balanced and attempt to run the football more.

Chicago has played just one road game this year, dropping a 30-13 contest to the New Orleans Saints as 4.5-point underdogs, falling below a total of 46.5.

From a betting perspective, the Bears are known for playing defense as an underdog, which has led to the "under" posting a 17-5 record over the last two-plus campaigns.

Why is this important?

The team flying in from the Windy City hasn't been an underdog in this series in at least the past 10 meetings.

Pick:  Under 48 points