Fantasy Football Week 5 Projections: WR Upgrades, Downgrades and Sleepers

Each week FFSpin will analyze the matchups and provide our take on which WRs should be splitting out wide for your fantasy teams and which players face difficult matchups with shutdown corners and should be avoided if possible. We take several variables into account including  matchups, injuries, potential weather problems, arrests, drug busts, etc.

Through four weeks, the following defenses are allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs (fewer than 25 FPG)—Pittsburgh, NY Jets, Jacksonville, Cincinnati and Cleveland.

Conversely, the following defenses have been torched up by opposing wideouts and rank at the bottom of the league (40-plus FPG): Tampa, Oakland, San Francisco, Arizona, Green Bay, New England and Denver.

On the injury front, the main casualty this week is Andre Johnson, who will miss at least three weeks with a hamstring injury. Jacoby Jones will get yet another chance for a breakout performance but we expect TE Owen Daniels has better than a 50/50 chance to lead the team in receiving over the next few weeks. 

Vincent Jackson (leg/abdominal) missed Thursday practices and could be a dreaded game-time decision. Malcolm Floyd has returned to full practice and could be a solid sleeper if V-Jax is ruled out.

Week 5 Byes: Baltimore, Cleveland, Dallas, Miami, St. Louis, Washington

Upgrade: Greg Jennings (@ Atlanta)

Despite the multiple weapons at A-Rod’s disposal, Greg Jennings remains a solid WR1 and is on pace for 100 passes for 1,400-plus yards and 12 touchdowns.

This week Jennings will face an Atlanta pass defense that made Tarvaris Jackson look like an NFL QB in Week 4. The Falcons pass D ranks 24th allowing 276 YPG and seven TDs through the air over the first four games. In the 2010 playoff blowout victory over Atlanta, Jennings finished with eight catches for 101 yards.

With Green Bay’s defense floundering, this game could come down to the wire in what figures to be a Sunday night shootout (Vegas over/under is 53 points).

Monster Numbers: Larry Fitzgerald (@ MIN), DeSean Jackson/Jeremy Maclin (@ BUF), Calvin Johnson (vs. CHI)

Downgrade: Brandon Lloyd (vs. San Diego)

The 2010 No. 1 fantasy WR has yet to find the end zone but is averaging a solid 88 YPG over three games. In Week 3 he was held to four catches for 38 yards against the Titans' seventh-ranked pass defense and this week faces another stiff test as San Diego boasts the fifth-ranked pass defense (196 YPG).

In two games against the Chargers last season, Lloyd averaged 75 YPG with two touchdowns. The Broncos' No. 1 WR might not crack the top 20 fantasy WRs in Week 5 (Chargers have held Dwayne Bowe to 67 yards and Brandon Marshall to 52 yards over past two weeks). Kyle Orton is tied for the league lead in INTs (six) and there have been rumblings that Tim Tebow could be inching closer to a starting job (for Decker/Lloyd’s sake let’s hope that Orton can keep the job).

Bench-Worthy: Mike Thomas (vs. CIN), Denarius Moore (@ HOU), Nate Washington (@ PIT)

SLEEPER: David Nelson (vs. PHI)

Don’t let the Week 4 clunker against Cincy scare you off of Nelson’s potential. The Bengals defense is allowing the second-least fantasy points to opposing receivers. The Bills' No. 2 WR is on pace for 88 catches for and 1,000 yards—not bad for a player plucked off waiver wires. 

This week Nelson faces a Philly pass defense that ranks 10th (218 YPG) but has allowed a league-high 10 passing TDs through four games. At 6’5", 217 pounds, Nelson is a force in the red zone and has a very good chance of notching his second TD of the season in a game that figures to be high-scoring (Vegas over/under is 50 points).

Sleeper Potential: Randall Cobb (@ ATL), Malcolm Floyd (vs. DEN), Jacoby Jones (vs. OAK)

Check out the Upgrades, Downgrades and Sleepers at RB here and QB here.

Look for the aggregate rankings from over 30 of the best fantasy experts tomorrow here at Bleacher Report or at FantasyFootballCrystalBall.com.