Cal vs. Oregon: Why the Ducks Won't Dominate the Bears

After seeing them lose to LSU 40-27 way back on Sept. 3, one can be excused for thinking the Oregon Ducks might not be as dominant this year as they were in 2010.

It turns out that any and all rumors of Oregon's demise were greatly exaggerated. The Ducks have been on a tear since losing to LSU, racing to a 3-1 record and reclaiming a spot in the AP Top 10 at No. 9. Along the way, the Ducks have reestablished themselves as the most dangerous offensive team in the country.

On Thursday night, the Ducks will take aim at the Cal Bears, who come into tonight's contest at Autzen Stadium with a healthy (albeit not overly impressive) 3-1 record.

The last trip the Bears took to Eugene didn't pan out so well. That was back in 2009, and the Ducks dominated them from the get-go on their way to a 42-3 victory.

Maybe that's why the oddsmakers decided to give the Bears virtually no shot of winning tonight's contest, as the spread (according to Bodog) has Oregon favored by 24.5 points.

Compared to the spreads we're used to seeing attached to Oregon's games, 24.5 points is actually a pretty flattering gesture towards the Bears. It implies they may be about to lose, but at least they'll keep it respectable.

Well, maybe I'm just a Cal homer (I am), but I actually think the Bears are going to keep it closer than the spread would indicate. They'll get beat, but they're not going to make it easy for the Ducks.

As invincible as Oregon seems at times, they can beaten if you can limit LaMichael James and the Ducks' rushing attack. This is definitely akin to saying "hold out hand, stop bullet," but it can be done. Just ask LSU, which held the Ducks to 95 yards on 28 carries back in early September.

Do the Bears have a front seven on the same level as LSU's? Goodness gracious, no. I do, however, think the Bears deserve some credit for the work they've done against the run so far this season. In the Pac-12, only Stanford has given up fewer rushing yards than Cal has. To boot, the Bears were last seen limiting Chris Polk, a very good running back, to 60 yards on 20 carries.

As strange as it may sound, I'm more worried about Darron Thomas lighting the Bears up in the passing game. Colorado and Washington were both able to pass on the Bears with ease, and one assumes that Chip Kelly was able to notice as much during his team's week off.

Well, there's only so much the Bears are going to be able to do about that. One of those things would be to keep pace with their own offense, which is halfway decent. Zach Maynard has been far from perfect, but he's definitely been better than Kevin Riley and Nate Longshore. He also seems to have a very good rapport with both Marvin Jones and Keenan Allen, the latter of whom is his half brother.

Yes, the Ducks do have good numbers against the pass, but many of them were compiled against lesser quarterbacks. A good quarterback (i.e. Arizona's Nick Foles) should be able to beat them.

At the end of the day, I think the magic number for Cal will be 40. If the Bears can keep the Ducks close to 40 points, they're going to have just enough offense to beat the spread. It's not a win, but one can think of worse consolation prizes.

Prediction: Oregon 42, Cal 21