Florida State vs. Wake Forest Preview

Coming off a bye week will be a good thing for the Seminoles since they suffered consecutive losses in what has been a bit of a disappointing season thus far.

All is not completely lost, though, with Florida State still in the top 25 and nowhere to go but up with some favorable matchups the next few weeks.

Starting quarterback EJ Manuel is the biggest story as he is expected to be ready to go and start on the road against Wake Forest (3-1, 2-0). 

When Florida State Runs the Ball

The Seminoles have been nicked up all season with injuries and the backfield has been one of the issues. Chris Thompson has not been the same with his chronic back injuries and without Manuel the 'Noles could not run the ball effectively against Oklahoma or Clemson.

FSU is just 115th in America averaging only 79 yards per game and the Demon Deacons have been impressive against the run this season allowing only 100 yards per game (26th).

With Manuel not being crazy about running that much, WF could bottle up the run again. However, this WF front seven is not nearly as good as Clemson's or Oklahoma's. This should finally be the week where Thompson, Devonta Freeman, Ty Jones and company rack up well over 79 yards.

Cyhl Quarles has been a player at defensive back who has been able to blow up plays at or behind the line of scrimmage for the Demon Deacons. This WF team has solid speed, but look for FSU to methodically move the ball down their throats.

Slight Edge: FSU

When Wake Forest Runs the Ball

Florida State is 12th against the run allowing only 82.5 yards a game and Waje Forest is not known for running the ball. They are actually almost as bad as Florida State is—ranking 99th averaging 108.5 yards per game.

Josh Harris has not had a ton of success, rushing for 276 yards and just two TDs ,(78 carries) whereas backup downhill runner Brandon Pendergrass has only 27 carries for 104 yards and two TDs.

Look for FSU's Christian Jones and Nigel Bradham to make several plays behind the line of scrimmage which would set up WF for plenty of third and longs.

Moderate Edge: FSU

When Florida State Passes the Ball

The Seminoles passing game has been their entire offense and EJ Manuel has been fairly impressive when on the field. Outside of his two picks against Oklahoma, he had a ton of momentum before being injured. 

Manuel has a rocket arm and can spin it with the best of them. Bert Reed (ankle) and Wille Haulstead (concussion) have both been at practice and should be expected to either start or at least play and see the field. Meanwhile, Jarred "Scooter" Haggins is still going to miss a few more games with his broken hand.

I also look for continued play from Rodney Smith (16 catches for 289 and two TDs) and Rashad Greene (14 catches for 294 and five TDs). They are the top two pass catchers and have had no issues stretching the field against the opposition. 

Reed and Haulstead have been in the system for the past few years and I would not be shocked to see extended playing time for Kenny Shaw and Christian Green. Those two youngsters could be starting next season and have been fairly impressive thus far in their careers.

Florida State is 14th in the country in passing offense (328 YPG) and Wake has been known for stopping the pass well. They rank 36th, allowing just 199.5 yards a game.

Hanging onto the ball for big conversions on third downs will be the key to this game and with legit talent I give the Seminoles a solid edge.

Moderate Edge: FSU

When Wake Forest Passes the Ball

Wake Forest's bread and butter in their spread system is throwing the ball downfield. Tanner Price is a solid quarterback and there are some out there who think this squad has a chance to go bowling this season with Virginia, Duke and Boston College all struggling miserably.

Greg Reid will be back playing a huge role like always, but Nick Moody is questionable for the game so look for Lamarcus Joyner and Terrence Parks to get all the playing time if that remains at game-time.

Ranking 17th in passing offense while averaging 314 yards a game is something the Seminoles must take seriously. Clemson and Oklahoma may have two of the best offenses in the nation so luckily they have been tested before.

FSU is 13th against the pass allowing just 174 yards per game despite getting torched by Tajh Boyd and, at times, Landry Jones. I like the Noles a ton in this matchup.

Moderate Edge: FSU

Facts and Matchup

Facts

Since 1992, Florida State is 16-3 against Wake Forest. It was just two seasons ago when EJ Manuel made his first career start against this Jim Grobe led team and FSU rolled up 41 in their 13-point victory.

Manuel totaled 265 yards in the game and will be looking to top those gaudy numbers from his career opener.

In the last five years each team has shut each other out. FSU won 31-0 last year, and though it brings back bad memories, the Noles were shut out 30-0 at the Doak on ABC National Primetime TV ('06).

Matchup

Wake Forest has had a ton of success stopping the run against their four opponents ('Cuse, BC, NCST and Gardner-Webb), so it is imperative for Florida State to finally find a way to run for well over their 79 yard average. If not, then Wake will attempt to pin their ears back and harass Manuel on obvious passing downs.

We will know how healthy EJ is when he scrambles for a big gain and takes a hit. If he can run with ease, it will go a long way into a Florida State victory.

X-Factor

Bjoern Werner has not earned or received much credit with Brandon Jenkins as the other edge rusher and it doesn't help that he might be one of the finest pass rushers in the nation.

However, both rushers this season have two sacks a piece. Jenkins will look to get double teams early on in this game which will open things up for Werner to wreak havoc once again.

For Wake Forest, Kyle Wilbur is doing the same while totaling two sacks (.5 per game). Wilbur could be a solid 3-4 edge rusher at the next level and playing outside linebacker can cause issues in both the Noles running and passing game.

Florida State has allowed their signal callers to get sacked 12 times already. That is atrocious and I could care less if they played the Cowboys or Giants. It is imperative that Florida State can strike early and protecting Manuel early on will be the key to their success.

Why Wake Forest Can Win

Wake Forest has been able to come after the passer which could spell disaster for Florida State. They are coming off a nice road victory at Boston College, 27-19.

Sure, BC has proven to set the offensive back ten years but I would not just assume that Florida State is going to show up and shut this team down with their defense.

FSU's defense has been mediocre at best for their own standards, and I can count on Mark Stoops dialing up a few blitzes to allow his secondary to have little time to cover.

Tanner Price can buy just enough time to do his best Landry Jones and Tajh Boyd impersonations. If WF can win the turnover battle and slow down the FSU running game as well as control the clock, the upset has a decent chance of happening.

Why Florida State Can and Will Win

Alright, so I tried my best to make you believe Wake has a decent chance of pulling off the upset, but this game could get ugly if FSU shows any attitude and aggression on the field.

This should be a ticked-off Noels squad that has been champing at the bit to prove to the nation they are not the most overrated team in the nation. Injuries and some tough breaks have led to their two losses.

Though it looks like Clemson may not lose a game, taking one game at a time will allow this Seminoles to get back into the race with a victory this Saturday.

Look for EJ Manuel to get a running game for once and to continue to just slowly torch the opposition. Their receivers are very fast and have the speed to beat you deep at some point during the game.

They will throw dink and dumps all day to set off their lack of a running game, but with as many as seven receivers that can come into the game to move the chains. This game will certainly become too much for WF to handle in the second half when they trail by double digits.

Look for a few turnovers to be forced by the Noles defense and they will be mad, bad boys up front.

Dustin Hopkins and Shaun Powell are arguably the best special teams unit in America (save Georgia) and they can make you pay for any of your mistakes.

Drama's Pick: FLORIDA STATE 34, WAKE FOREST 17