NFL Playoff Odds Week 5: Chances All 32 Teams Make the Postseason

At the quarter mark of the 2011 NFL season, things are starting to take shape. 

Several of the usual suspects look like Super Bowl contenders, several of the teams everyone thought would struggle are struggling and there are a handful of surprises as well.

So while we have a little less than three months remaining in the season and a ton of football left to play, it's not too early to start weeding out the bad teams from the good. 

Certainly no team is mathematically eliminated yet, and none of the undefeated or 3-1 teams are guaranteed anything, but here's a look forward at which clubs have a shot at playing into January and those who don't. 

Buffalo Bills

Record: 3-1

Odds: 70%

The Bills fell back down to earth a bit in Week 4, not necessarily because they lost, but more because who they lost to: the Bengals, a game most people expected them to win.

Perhaps that type of letdown was to be expected considering the back-to-back emotional comebacks, first over the Raiders then a week later against New England, but if the Bills are going to snap their 11-year playoff drought, they cannot afford to let their guard down at all. 

And while they are off to a great start, and have a critical win over a division rival in New England, there's still a long road ahead. You have to figure the Jets will bounce back and contend for the division along with the Pats. That will make Buffalo's playoff hopes twice as difficult. 

New England Patriots

Record: 3-1

Odds: 90%

Yes, the Pats and Bills have the same record and Buffalo has that head-to-head win over New England, so on paper the two teams should have the same odds at reaching the postseason....maybe even lower odds for the Pats. 

But setting the odds based on that criteria would be absolutely foolish.

Say what you will about the Pats postseason failures since 2004, but they've been a playoffs team every year all but once since then and were 10-6 when they didn't make the playoffs in 2008. Translation: there is a wealth of talent and experience on that club. 

Barring an injury to Brady or even more troubles with that shaky secondary, I don't see any way they miss out on at least a berth in the postseason. 

New York Jets

Record: 2-2

Odds: 75%

As bad as the Jets were on Sunday night, I choose to think of that loss to Baltimore as an aberration. The combination of being on the road, playing the opportunistic Ravens defense and serious personnel problems on the offensive line were the reason that game got out of hand Sunday night.

For one, the deficiencies with the so-called "ground and pound" running game are a major reason why Mark Sanchez was horrible on Sunday. And sooner or later they will straighten that out and the offense will become respectable.

But even if they don't, their defense is so good and so capable of shutting down the opponent's passing attack that they will always be in contention. 

And with all their problems, they are only one game behind the Pats and Bills for first place in the division and haven't opened up the divisional schedule yet. 

Miami Dolphins

Record: 0-4

Odds: 5%

Being winless at this point and qualifying for the postseason isn't completely impossible: stranger things have happened in the NFL.

But if a team is going to pull off that type of miracle, they'd have to be far more talented and far more coherent than the Dolphins.

They're is a good chance they will be without Chad Henne for a long time, they have a lame duck head coach, and that defense—which was supposed to be one of their strengths after last season—is pretty awful, ranked third-worst in the NFL against the pass.

Add in the fact that they are absolutely atrocious at home (losing their last six games at Sun Life Stadium) and they are basically done at this point. 

Baltimore Ravens

Record: 3-1

Odds: 75%

Because the Jets offense was so incompetent, the Ravens defense probably isn't as good is it looked Sunday night. And because the Jets defense is so outstanding, the Ravens offense probably isn't as bad as it looked Sunday night. 

Given that fact and their performance in the first three weeks of the season, they are something of a conundrum. They crushed the Steelers and Rams, but were really pretty awful against the Titans.

Certainly, they are still the class of the AFC North right now and they can all but guarantee a division title if they beat Pittsburgh later in the year. But until Joe Flacco shows he is capable of playing with some type of consistency (he was great in Weeks 1 and 3, but horrible in Weeks 2 and 4) they aren't a mortal lock yet. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Record: 2-2

Odds: 50%

The Steelers have plenty of built in excuses for their troubled state right now. They played three road games in four weeks, they have tons of problems on the offensive line, and several of their key players on defense are "old" by today's standards. 

Having said all that, they are 2-2 and still have a rematch with the Ravens (at home) so they are fully capable of bouncing back. 

But their unusually poor play against the run is what's holding them back right now and will be the deciding factor in their chase for a playoff spot. With Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Peyton Hillis (twice), they will be tested. 

Cincinnati Bengals

Record: 2-2

Odds: 20%

Topping the undefeated Bills was a major step in the right direction for the Bengals: it definitely helped Marvin Lewis with job security and also helped validate Andy Dalton's claim to the role of "franchise quarterback."

But just because they are 2-2, tied for second place in the division at the quarter-mark, and have the top-rated defense in the league, doesn't mean they should be planning the postseason. 

They have a host of extremely difficult games left on the schedule: Baltimore twice, Pittsburgh twice, as well as the Texans in addition to rising clubs like Arizona and Tennessee. I just can't see them winning enough games this year to edge the Ravens and/or Steelers out of a playoff berth. 

Cleveland Browns

Record: 2-2

Odds: 10%

Much like the Bengals, the Browns have plenty of reason to be hopeful for the future: they are 2-2, Colt McCoy has played very well in spurts, and they have a very good pass rush. 

But they are still on the bottom of the food chain in the AFC North. 

Cleveland still has a major hole in the passing game when it comes to wide receivers and as good as first round draft pick Phil Taylor has looked, the Browns run defense is still one of the worst in the NFL. 

This club is still at least a year off in terms of contending for a postseason berth. 

Houston Texans

Record: 3-1

Odds: 80%

I don't think the Texans have nearly enough on the defensive side of the ball to contend for a Super Bowl title. And if they miss Andre Johnson for an extended period things will get much tougher. But as far as earning a playoff berth, they really have to be considered a favorite to qualify.

Now part of that certainty is due to their great offense and a defense that is vastly improved. And their manhandling of the defending conference champion (Pittsburgh) a week ago coupled with the narrow loss in shootout with an elite club in New Orleans exemplified both.

But more than anything they do, it's just so hard to look at the other three teams in their division and not see the Texans as prevailing to earn an automatic berth in the playoffs.  See the next three slides for more on that.

Tennessee Titans

Record: 3-1

Odds: 40%

I really don't want to rain on the Titans parade because they really are such a great story, having changed so much only to bolt out of the gate at 3-1.

But you have to look at their record and their co-first place position as a textbook case of "doing it with smoke and mirrors."

For one, two of their three wins are against well below average clubs in Cleveland and Denver, and while they did defeat one of the conference's elite teams in Baltimore, that game was more about what the Ravens did wrong rather than what the Titans did right. 

And although Chris Johnson seems to be have hit his stride and Matt Hasselbeck has been extremely efficient, the loss of Kenny Britt is going to be an incredible high hurdle going forward. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Record: 1-3

Odds: 15%

It's too early to start a "Fire Jack Del Rio Watch" but this team has a long way to go just to be mediocre.

The upgrades on defense have been something of a success: case in point, holding the Saints to just 23 points last week (just three field goals in the second half), but that offense is borderline putrid.

Sure the abrupt insertion of Luke McCown followed by the start of the Blaine Gabbert era is partially the reason why, but they have so few weapons in the passing game that it would be hard for Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers to excel in that scenario. 

Considering how much is stacked against him, Maurice Jones-Drew should be getting some attention as an MVP candidate. How much worse would this team be without him? 

Indianapolis Colts

Record: 0-4

Odds: 5%

The Colts have been a pretty great story lately, losing Peyton Manning, then being blown out in the opener, only to scrap and fight three straight weeks and hang in contention. So in some ways, Jim  Caldwell is doing the best bit of coaching he's done since taking over for Tony Dungy and that includes taking the team to a Super Bowl two years ago.

But as far as playoff hopes? There are basically none. And not just because of Manning's absence. Their running game is still below average and the secondary has plenty of flaws. 

Prior to the season, I thought this team had at best a 50-50 shot to make the playoffs with Manning, so they seem to be right on target at 0-4 and three games out of the AFC South race. 

San Diego Chargers

Record: 3-1

Odds: 65%

Why is no one talking about the Chargers?

They are finally off to a decent (let alone great) start under Norv Turner and their only loss came on the road against New England in a game that was fairly close throughout. 

Philip Rivers is playing well and so is the defense, but they finally have great balance on offense with Ryan Matthews and Mike Tolbert so this team has to be considered a major force in the playoff chase.

Because the Raiders managed to beat San Diego twice last year, it's far too early to hand the Chargers a division crown at this point, even though the Chiefs and Broncos are playing for high draft choices. And since the AFC North and East are better bets to earn the Wild Card, meaning it's likely that the West will only send one team to the postseason, that's why their odds are only at 65 percent. 

Oakland Raiders

Record: 2-2

Odds: 65%

Maybe I'm blinded by the overwhelming amount of speed and talent at the skill positions, but it's hard not to like the Raiders at this point, even though the Patriots just schooled them on Sunday.

Darren McFaddden might be the NFLs best running back and when their receiving corps gets healthy, they have an ability to score a ton of points, no matter if the quarterback is Jason Campbell, Rich Gannon, Todd Marinavich or Daryle Lamonica.

The team's playoff hopes ride more with the defense which clearly has problems stopping both the run and the pass, and the division will probably come down to whether or not they can contain the Chargers offense enough not to get swept in their two games later this season. But either way, you can expect them to be in the mix until Week 17. 

Kansas City Chiefs

Record: 1-3

Odds: 10%

Defeating the Vikings in front of the Arrowhead faithful was important for keeping Chiefs fans from being completely depressed at this point, but it's going to be one of the few bright spots in a 2011 season ruined by injuries and bad luck. 

There's still talent on both sides of the ball, despite losing Jamaal Charles, Eric Berry and Tony Moeaki, but they've built such a huge hole right out of the gate, and all three of their division rivals look so much better than they did a year ago, that Kansas City is not only a threat to finish last in the AFC West, but they might very well finish last in the entire AFC and be picking in the first hour of the 2012 draft. 

Denver Broncos

Record: 1-3

Odds: 10%

Although there's probably less talent on the Broncos club than on the Chiefs, and Denver was just blown out by the Packers on Sunday, they are much improved from a year ago. What does that mean? Well, probably not much, but I do think that fact will provide some inspiration and hope for this very young club going forward.

If at all possible, look beyond the quarterback situation involving Kyle Orton, Brady Quinn and Tim Tebow, and consider the fact that they went to Tennessee and pushed the Titans to the final minutes and have found (somewhat) diamonds in the rough in Willis McGahee and Eric Decker, two players no one in the national media was talking about back in August. 

And it's worth noting that their run defense is greatly improved, something that will certainly come in handy when they play clubs like Oakland, Minnesota and the Jets later this season. 

New York Giants

Record: 3-1

Odds: 75%

It seems as if the NFC East is once again the most competitive—top to bottom—division in the NFL so it's risky to choose any club as a "favorite" at this point. But if forced, I'll take the Giants as the most likely candidate.

Eli Manning has been outstanding the past two weeks and although the stats don't bear this out, that running game is among the best in the NFL: Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are still a formidable duo. 

The defense certainly needs to get better, especially against the run, but they should get Prince Amukamara on the field at some point and he will take pressure off their corners which might allow them to keep an extra man in the box to slow down the opponent's ground game. 

Washington Redskins

Record: 3-1

Odds: 33% 

Mike Shanahan has done a masterful job with the Redskins. As was the case in Denver, he seems to be able to put any running back out there, whether it's Roy Helu, Tim Hightower or Ryan Torrain, and rack up 100 yards. 

More importantly, that defense—which was statistically the worst in the NFL a year ago—has played very consistently and been the key to their great start. 

But I refuse to believe that that defense is as good as advertised until I see them try and defend Michael Vick, who embarrassed the Redskins a year ago on Monday night. 

Dallas Cowboys

Record: 2-2

Odds: 33% 

The silver lining in Sunday's loss to Detroit is probably the fact that if you subtract Tony Romo's two interceptions-turned-touchdowns, the Cowboys defeat Detroit pretty handily. 

But let's try and look at the entire body of work thus far and not completely obsess over Romo's atrocious second half against Detroit.

The Cowboys have been in every game to the very end, are just one game out of first place and are 1-0 in the division. Furthermore, that defense has been really good at times and DeMarcus Ware has a great shot at NFL Defensive Player of the Year. 

Now it's just a matter of them finishing strong in December, something they have not been able to do for a long time. 

Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 1-3

Odds: 33% 

There's no reason why the Eagles can't turn it around and get back to championship form...well, unless you consider how bad their offensive line is, how disappointing the secondary has been, how much their special teams have let them down, etc. etc. etc.

Still, there is just too much talent on this club to think they won't rebound. 

Changes need to be made in order to keep Michael Vick safe, to try and utilize LeSean McCoy more in the running game and to improve a run defense that is arguably the worst in the NFL.

But this is a club that had the lead going into the fourth quarter of all three of their losses this season. Getting to that point shows they are capable of winning consistently. Now they just have to find a way to hold on to the lead. 

Green Bay Packers

Record: 4-0

Odds: 80% 

I can appreciate the fact that the Packers have looked absolutely dominant at times this year and might be the NFL's best team right now, but there are a few reasons to think that they might run into a few problems along the way to that repeat championship.

For one, the Lions look very tough to beat and are a good match for the Packers: they did nearly beat Green Bay in both of last year's meetings. And the Bears shouldn't be counted out just yet, despite their share of issues. 

But more importantly, we've seen previous Super Bowl winners start to run out of gas down the stretch of the regular season. The opposition always tries that much harder and puts up a little bit better fight against the defending champs. 

Detroit Lions

Record: 4-0

Odds: 75% 

The Lions deserve every bit of credit they are getting right now. They've been able to overcome huge deficits in back-to-back weeks and they've won games with both great offense and great defense. 

And even if they aren't able to edge out the Packers and take the division, I do like their chances of earning one of the wild card berths. 

But they still have a fairly brutal remaining schedule with Atlanta, San Diego, New Orleans and Oakland ahead of them not to mention four division games against Chicago and the Packers. 

Let's see how they do in some of those showdowns before scheduling them for January football. 

Chicago Bears

Record: 2-2

Odds: 33% 

Once the Bears realize they are not going to catch their arch-rival Packers in the chase for the NFC North title and they find a wild card berth palatable, they'll be a lot better off. And that is certainly within their reach.

They have two games left against the Lions, who they own a serious advantage over in terms of experience and are capable of beating, especially since Mike Martz showed a willingness to run the ball at all costs last week against the Panthers.

If Martz starts to transition that offense away from a Jay Cutler-centric approach and utilizes Matt Forte more often (in both the air and ground) then they will stand a much better shot. Their defense, especially the pass rush, is still good enough to disrupt any team they play (including the Packers) and they do have a fairly easy schedule down the stretch in December. 

Minnesota Vikings

Record: 0-4

Odds: 10%

First, the good news for Minnesota: They have Adrian Peterson, were good enough to grab a second-half lead in every one of their four games this season, and they do have Christian Ponder's debut to look forward to. 

Now, the bad news: everything else, including a schedule which features seven games against teams with a great shot at making the playoffs. 

It's just a team going through the growing pains of a new head coach and many new faces on both sides of the ball. So as the great Jim Mora would say..."Playoffs? Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game!" 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Record: 3-1

Odds: 50% 

In any other division, the Bucs playoff odds would probably be higher, but the Falcons and Saints still own a huge edge in experience, talent at the skill positions and star power. 

Still, the Bucs' only blemish came in Week 1 against a Lions club that is undefeated any currently the darlings of the NFL. 

They probably missed a great opportunity to shine on the Monday Night stage, barely beating the depleted Colts at home, and they don't do any one thing great...including limiting the big play on defense, as we saw against Indianapolis.

But both Josh Freeman and LeGarrette Blount do have a knack for making big plays when they need them most and that defense is ranked in the top 10 in most categories.

If they can split with the Saints when they play New Orleans twice in a month, you've got to like their chances. 

New Orleans Saints

Record: 3-1

Odds: 50% 

As was the case in 2009 when they won the Super Bowl, the Saints have started to be much more balanced on the offensive side of the ball. With that three-headed tandem of Darren  Sproles, Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram, the Saints are shockingly 10th in the NFL in rushing.

Couple that with what Drew Brees is capable of, and it's going to be very hard to keep them home this January. 

But despite their offseason additions and tweaks, the defense hasn't come around quite as well as it needs to.

Sure the two offense that carved them up recently (Green Bay and Houston) are two of the best in the NFL—and they did suffocate the Jaguars and Bears this year—but with a pair of games against the Falcons on the horizon, things won't get any easier for Gregg Williams unit. 

Atlanta Falcons

Record: 2-2

Odds: 50% 

If you look past the Eagles and Jets, the Falcons are probably the NFLs most disappointing team this year. With a few more bad bounces against the Seahawks and Eagles, they might be 1-3 or even 0-4, something basically unfathomable since they were the NFC's top seed last year and added apparent game-changers in Julio Jones and  Ray Edwards.

But you'd be crazy to count them out at this point, especially since they only trail the Bucs and Saints by one game in the division. Michael Turner has been very efficient and for a rookie wide receiver Jones has been brilliant, catching 24 passes for 342 yards already. 

Maybe the offense has not been the super power they were projected to be—a unit akin to the Greatest Show on Turf, according to Roddy White a few months back—but their playoff destiny will once again be tethered to their defense. 

They don't have to be a lights out group, but with their schedule featuring Green Bay, Houston and New Orleans twice, they have to start getting more pressure on opposing passers or they will be eaten alive. 

Carolina Panthers

Record: 1-3

Odds: 10% 

Cam Newton's tremendous rookie rise has helped overshadow the fact that this Panthers team is not good. 

DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have not been able to run the ball effectively and they really have no answer for stopping opponents on the ground. 

But that's not news to anyone. They had the NFL's worst record a season ago, saw a lot of turnover on the roster and in the coaching staff and (perhaps more importantly) everyone in their division also made significant upgrades this offseason. 

So while they look up at three legitimate playoff contenders in Atlanta, New Orleans and Tampa Bay, the Panthers can look forward to 2012 when they might have a shot at a wild card. 

San Francisco 49ers

Record: 3-1

Odds: 80% 

It may only be a two-game lead with 12 to play but considering how bad the rest of the division is, the 49ers feel like a lock to win the NFC West...despite the fact that they certainly have their flaws. 

They are really vulnerable through on defense against the pass, allowing 284 yards each week and that offensive line still needs a ton of work. And to make matters worse, they have an absolutely brutal schedule the rest of the season, with playoff contenders Tampa Bay, Detroit, Washington, the New York Giants, Baltimore and Pittsburgh left. 

But Alex Smith has played well, their collection of pass catchers is very talented, and the pass rush is solid. All those factors and, again, the weakness in the rest of the division, should translate to a home playoff game even if they were to finish with a .500 record. 

Seattle Seahawks

Record: 1-3

Odds: 25% 

Because they are two games behind San Francisco and were already beaten by the 49ers once this season, the defending NFC West champions have a long way to go if they are to have any shot at the division title: you can forget any hopes of a wild card since the NFC is so strong. 

Still I wouldn't count them out just yet, not because of their own abilities, but because the 49ers still have a lot to prove. 

Look, we know that Seahawks are overloaded with problems: Tarvaris Jackson is well below average, their special teams are bad, their offensive line is worse and they have absolutely no running game right now.

But they did beat the Cardinals two weeks ago and showed tremendous resiliency last Sunday against the Falcons, coming back from a 20-point deficit to make a game of it. That's got to count for something. 

Arizona Cardinals

Record: 1-3

Odds: 35% 

Losing to the Seahawks hurt Arizona's chance to show they were a viable contender for the division title, but they will still have plenty of opportunities to make a run at catching the 49ers. 

Of all the teams in this fairly putrid division, they have the most offensive talent and while their defense has given up huge chunks of yards through the air (to Cam Newton, Eli Manning and even Rex Grossman) that young secondary, particularly Patrick Peterson, will come around fast. 

If they can hang around .500 towards the end of the regular season, things set up really well for Ken Wisenhunt's club. They finish with four home game in the final five weeks, have winable games against Cleveland, Seattle and Cincinnati, and will host the 49ers in Glendale, a game that could produce a two-game swing in the division. 

St. Louis Rams

Record: 0-4

Odds: 5% 

The Rams may have come within one game of winning the NFC West last year, but by no means did that mean they were a good club. So perhaps we shouldn't be surprised that they are arguably the worst team in football.

(On a side note, everyone seems to have Andrew Luck penciled in as the number one pick in April no matter what: how does that happen if Sam Bradford's Rams finish with the NFL's worst record?) 

Still, while this team has essentially no shot at finishing .500 let alone earning a playoff berth, I do expect them to start playing much better football in the second half of the season.

As Robert Quinn gets more comfortable in that defense and those rookie receivers gain more familiarity with Bradford, they'll at least be competitive.

But the schedule makers didn't do them any favors either. Coming up in the next five weeks, they have four road games, three of which are against New Orleans, Green Bay and Dallas.  

St. Louis' secondary will have no answers for those passing games and they'll be fortunate to avoid a winless record at the season's halfway point.