Final Seat at the BCS Table: Ohio State or Boise State?

As we go into the final week of regular season and conference championship games, the BCS pictures is becoming clearer, but there are still a few unknowns.

It appears that the SEC will send two schools, Florida and Alabama, as will the Big 12 (South), Oklahoma and Texas. Missouri beating Oklahoma in the championship game changes everything, but for now assume that longshot won’t happen.

The Pac-10 sends USC, the Big Ten sends Penn State, The Big East sends Cincinnati, and the ACC sends the winner of Boston College and Virginia Tech.

Utah gets an automatic bid (MWC champion and ranked higher than #12). Boise State does not get an automatic bid for wining the WAC because only one automatic bid can be given to C-USA, MWC, WAC, MAC and Sun Belt collectively. BYU, TCU and Ball State are all ranked to low for consideration.

This leaves one slot open for either Ohio State or Boise State.

How do you decide between a 12-0 WAC champion and a 10-2 Big Ten co-champion? Let’s look at it from a few angles.

Quality Wins

Boise State has only one quality win this year and it was an early season, non-conference game.

At #17 Oregon 37-32 (Sept. 20)

Ohio State has three quality wins this year, all against Big Ten opponents. They also have two losses, though both to Top 3 teams.

At #18 Wisconsin 20-17 (Oct. 4)

At #20 Michigan State 45-7 (Oct. 18)

At #24 Northwestern 45-10 (Nov. 8)

Loss at #1 USC 3-35 (Sept. 13)

Loss to #3 Penn State 6-13 (Oct. 25)

Clearly Ohio State plays a much tougher schedule than Boise State does. The Big Ten has gotten a (deserved) bad rap the past few years for being weak, but even so, it is a much tougher schedule to play than the WAC.

Quality Wins goes to Ohio State.

BCS Bowl Performance

Ohio State has played is 4-2 in BCS bowl games with an average TV viewership rating of 14.72. Ohio State fans travel in droves, which guarantees a sell out no matter when or where they play a BCS bowl game.

·         1998 Sugar Bowl: (4) Ohio State 24, (6) Texas A&M 14

·         2002 Fiesta Bowl: (2) Ohio State 31, (1) Miami 24, 2 OT [TV rating 17.2] – National Champions

·         2003 Fiesta Bowl: (5) Ohio State 35, (10) Kansas State 28 [TV rating 8.7]

·         2005 Fiesta Bowl: (4) Ohio State 34, (6) Notre Dame 20 [TV rating 12.90]

·         2006 National Championship Game: (2) Florida 41, (1) Ohio State 14 [TV rating 17.40]

·         2007 National Championship Game: (2) LSU 38, (1) Ohio State 24 [TV rating 17.40]

Boise State has played in one BCS bowl game, which they won with a TV rating of 8.40. Boise State fans don’t travel in the same numbers as Ohio State fans, but that might change after the unforgettable 2006 Fiesta Bowl.

·         2006 Fiesta Bowl: (8) Boise State 43, (10) Oklahoma 42, OT [TV rating 8.40]

BCS performance (including TV viewership and “butts in the seats”) goes to Ohio State.

Rankings

Boise State ranks No. 9, ahead of Ohio State at No. 10 in the AP Ranking, The BCS Ranking and my own KPI.

AP Ranking

9. Boise State

10. Ohio State

BCS

9. Boise State .7034

10. Ohio State .6340

KPI (Kraus Performance Index)

9. Boise State 47.72

10. Ohio State 47.48

Rankings go to Boise State.

Conclusion

This is nearly a toss up. I think for many people the argument is Ohio State has stunk it up two years in a row and Boise State’s only BCS performance was one for the ages. Conversely, many people feel that one “BCS Buster” per year is enough, and Ohio State is the better team and the better choice.

BCS chooses Ohio State.