Predicting the NBA's Top 25 Players in 5 Years

When you want to look into the future in the NBA, many things must be considered. In general, it is one of the easiest sports to judge how players are going to do a few years down the line based on what they have done over the past few seasons.

A player's peak can vary. Tthat's true, but usually it's not to difficult to tell which players are going to have a long peak and which ones will be having a short peak.

So if we look far into the future, all the way to the year 2016, what is the NBA going to look like, and who are the top players in the league?

Well, to figure that out, we must get a few things straight.

First, it seems obvious that big men can stay more valuable over a long period of time compared to guards. It's not because they stay better longer, but rather that they are more valuable in the league, so having Dwight Howard average 17 points and 10 rebounds is usually more valuable than Chris Paul putting up 17 points and 10 assists, because Dwight is more of a distraction on both ends of the floor as a big man.

Also, defense and rebounding are skills that stay with a player the longest; they are the least fleeting skills. So if a young player is getting by on defense today with a viable offensive game, then it's possible that they will be even better once their offense catches up with their defense.

Finally, there are obviously going to be some players in the league that end up in the top 25 five years from now who are not readily predictable because they'll be coming in the league in two or three years. I've included some guys who aren't in the league yet, but for the most part, stuck with players on the court in the NBA today.

25. Dwyane Wade

One of the most concerning things with Dwyane Wade is the fact that he is injury prone at this point in his career, and he could continue to be, and even have a serious, career-altering injury at any point.

Last year, Dr. Nicholas Romanov commented on Wade's running style, saying that it could diminish his career.

Even if Wade does get hurt over the course of the next few years, it seems like he's the type of player that could adjust his game and work at staying a top-25 player. 

24. Thaddeus Young

After four years in the NBA, Thaddeus Young is finally starting to put his game together coming off the bench for Philadelphia, and that should do wonders for his development.

Young, after shooting below 50 percent for two years and taking any three-pointer that he saw fit to take, finally has learned better shot selection, shooting 54 percent this past season and barely shooting any threes.

Add that to the fact that he has amazing body control for a man his size, his youth and the fact that his defense is rapidly improving, especially with the presence and guidance of Andre Iguodala, and you should have a very impressive player here in a few years.

23. Jordan Crawford

I can see Jordan Crawford easily surpassing his brother's accomplishments in the NBA after a few more years of development and a few years of coming to his peak.

Crawford is a guy who can just flat-out score, which was obvious this season when he scored 16 points a game while playing for Washington.

However, he played on Washington without reigns and shot 39 percent. Once he matures and learns a shot selection, he's going to be killer, especially if he decides to develop some sort of a defensive game. 

22. Roy Hibbert

Slowly but surely, Roy Hibbert is turning into a very good player and could end up having a breakout season within the next two years, peaking about five years from now.

Hibbert has a low-post game that is continuing to develop and look like it's going to be very good; plus, he is starting to actually look like he could potentially average 10 rebounds a game, something that looked far off even just last October.

So long as Hibbert continues to develop, he should be able to be very good based on his size and low post game alone.

21. Chris Paul

I know it's kind of hard to imagine a point guard turning 30 and still being one of the 25 best players in the league, but it should happen with Chris Paul, so long as injuries don't slow him down too much.

Paul has a game based more on defense and distributing, two skills that last longer than offensive skills that point guards usually lean on because it can be done on a deteriorating body.

20. DeMarcus Cousins

Some will look at DeMarcus Cousins and think that he's a guy that's far too self-centered and quick to go off on a referee, opponent, teammate, coach or fan that he can't possibly hold himself together in the next five years to be one of the 25 best out there.

Well, good sirs, in the past decade, did we not see Rasheed Wallace, Ron Artest, Stephon Marbury and countless other sociopaths put together seasons that would make them at least considered for the top-25?

This man is a double-double machine, and I only see him getting better from here. Whether he calms down or not, he should end up being very good.

19. DeAndre Jordan

I'm still trying to figure out whether I believe in the hype that's surrounding DeAndre Jordan.

On one hand, he plays with quite an intensity that makes you think that he's going to be doing whatever he can do to get better. On the other hand, his improvement has been mild over the three years that he's been in the league, so it's hard to say whether or not I think he's going to get that much better.

Still, I think this is a safe bet, as he is a seven-footer, and more often than not when a seven footer looks like he's going to improve, he does, just because of the mere fact that they are seven feet tall and they learn how to exploit the game and their opponents to play the way they want.

18. O.J. Mayo

It's never good to give up on players because they have poor shot selection or because they have a questionable attitude or character, which is what Memphis nearly did when they tried to trade him at last season's trade deadline.

We have seen that the man can score; he just had such a turbulent season that it obviously effected him. Why else would he go from shooting 46 percent to nearly dipping below 40 two years later?

However, on top of that, since playing with the Grizzlies and Tony Allen, Mayo has learned some much more impressive defense beyond just being able to steal the ball, which should be key in his development.

17. Enes Kanter

Alright, fine; let's do this. I hereby fully buy into the Enes Kanter hype. I don't really know what it was that swung me, but I think Enes Kanter is going to end up being the best thing coming out of this year's draft.

Kanter is a big, physical big man that really isn't in the mold of the other European bigs to come over in the past two decades. He still has that jump shot (although not as polished), but he is a much more commanding presence when on the floor, making his body a weapon.

Sure, he may or may not have knee problems, but for now, I'll continue to buy the hype.

16. Andrew Bynum

I feel like I'm living life on the edge by picking Bynum because it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that he'll get hurt and I'll look like an idiot, but still.

Bynum has the defense that can hold him over if he ends up breaking down, but by playing with Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom, he is really starting to learn the lost art of the low post offense.

If Bynum can continue to develop and stay healthy, then he could be a good center in this league for a long time.

15. Rajon Rondo

Rajon Rondo is an interesting case because he does the things in basketball that will allow him to stick around for a long time, but there are plenty of questions surrounding him.

Rondo can see the floor as well as any player in the league today, offensively and defensively, as he can get all his teammates involved on offense and play the passing lanes, picking off any errant ball.

On the other hand, he can't shoot a lick outside of 25 feet. But, if this previous season of basketball has taught us anything, it's that you can learn a jump shot. Just ask Jason Kidd.

14. Andre Drummond

Barely out of high school now, Andre Drummond has basically taken the basketball world by storm.

He has the body of Amar'e Stoudemire, and he's still growing and turning into a man both in life and on the basketball court.

Considering the possibility (OK, probability) that he will be jumping to the NBA in 2012, you have to imagine that he'll have plenty of development to turn into a top-25 player pretty rapidly.

13. Monta Ellis

When great scorers are young, they can rely on their body to get where they want and get the best possible shot off. When they are old, they have to adjust, but they are able to use their guile and ability to fool the defender to get where they want.

For most scorers, there is that inevitable window of a few years where they are still physically capable of playing like their younger self, but they have also been in the league long enough to know how to trick their defender. That's the Monta Ellis we should have five years from now.

12. DeMar DeRozan

The Toronto fans have fully gotten to me, and I'm starting to see what they are seeing in DeMar DeRozan.

DeRozan jumped from eight to 17 points a game from his rookie season to this year, but his shooting percentage dipped just two percent. Usually when you see a young fellow thrusted into a leadership role where he will be shooting basically whenever he wants, you see a big dip in percentage. 

Instead, DeRozan's percentage took a slight drop while his free throw percentage rocked up over 80 percent. This kid's got something.

11. Kevin Love

I am not fully sold on Kevin Love becoming a superstar. He's too soft on defense at this point for me to see him coming near that, but that's not to say he won't still be a good player in five years.

For starters, rebounding isn't a skill that just disappears, especially as a player is entering his peak years, so Love should be able to use his bloodhound-like nose for the ball at a similar rate for the next five years at least.

On top of that, this guy has a strange offensive game that is difficult to defend. I never thought I'd say it back when he was a chubby guy running around the court for UCLA, but Kevin Love is going to be good.

10. Stephen Curry

My word: If Stephen Curry can refine his point guard skills and average around eight or so assists a game, he could be a very scary player.

I mean, this year alone, Curry was just two percentage points away from having a 50-40-90 shooting season as a sophomore in the league (he shot 48 percent from the field, 44 for three and 93 from the free throw line).

If you were to pick one player to pick as the next Steve Nash, I think it would have to be Curry.

9. Russell Westbrook

Russell Westbrook is starting to really come into his own as a point guard in the NBA, and now that he is passing the ball well and being more selective on his shots, shooting wiser three-pointers (he's still shooting a miserable 33 percent), he looks like he could be very good.

I see no reason (barring injury) that Westbrook can't come into the 2016 season as one of the 10 best players in the league.

8. Serge Ibaka

Serge Ibaka is starting to remind me of a young Dikembe Mutombo. He can score when he is asked to score, and do so efficiently, plus he plays with a type of intensity that is so intimidating that his presence is felt as soon as he walks onto a court.

Just his ability to control the crowd is enough to warrant him being a good player, as every move he makes seems to intensify and energize those guys down there in Oklahoma City, and then when he unleashes one of his blocks, it just brings down the house.

7. John Wall

It only took a year, but I'm ready to see John Wall as a star player in the NBA.

Sure, he had his ups and downs all year long and only ended up shooting 40 percent (and 29 from downtown), but he did so much good in his rookie year that it's hard to ignore.

He scored 16 points a game, cracked the top-10 in assists as a rookie with 8.3 a game and even grabbed better than five rebounds and a steal a game; plus, he's got room to grow.

6. Marc Gasol

In case you didn't know, I adopted the Grizzlies as my Western Conference team to enjoy back around February, which is basically a fluffy way of saying that I've jumped on their bandwagon.

Still, watching Marc Gasol over the last few months of the season really showed what he can be in the NBA with a man as physical and unpredictably wild as Zach Randolph backing him up.

Gasol is a legitimate big man in the NBA, and he isn't even that great yet.

His 11 points and seven rebounds don't look all that impressive on paper, but in his third year in the league, he really broke out of his shell, and if nothing else, he could be that defensive mastermind in five years who does just enough on offense for people to really appreciate.

5. Derrick Rose

Derrick Rose is the best player in the NBA who just so happens to play point guard. That's not to say that he's the best point guard in the league (in the traditional meaning of a point guard), but being the best anything is a testament to Rose.

Already an MVP in just his third season in the league, Rose has been able to turn into a decent point guard in the traditional sense, a great basketball player and a developing leader, and he's just got room to improve.

4. Dwight Howard

Dwight Howard is the best center in the league, and presumably, he still will be in five years.

However, there is a bit of a gripe that I have with Howard, which is why I couldn't put him in the top three.

Howard has had very few moments where he is demanding to be the centerpiece of a team, which is really what he should be. Rather, he is passive as a person, which kind of glazes him over, if that's at all possible.

What he needs to do is what Shaq did in his first years with the Lakers in which he demanded to be the system, rather than just a part of the system, which led to his amazing 2000 season.

He needs to go into Keyshawn Johnson mode and tell everyone to, "Just give me the damn ball."

3. Blake Griffin

I'm trying to figure out how unlikely it is for Blake Griffin to be this good, because we all know that he'll have had three knee surgeries within the next three years just because he is on the Clippers.

However, let's pretend that he doesn't crush Clippers fans' hopes and dreams as they have been for the past few decades. Isn't he going to be amazing?

In his rookie season, he already has turned into a dominating force both on the basketball court and on the internet, delivering his sneakily hilarious deadpan comedy.

2. LeBron James

Right now, LeBron James is entering the ninth season in his NBA career; five years from now, it will be his 13th, so he should be starting to fall off a bit...right?

Well, even though he'll be in his 13th season in the league, he'll still only be 31 years old.

When Michael Jordan was 31, he was just finishing up his baseball career and still had three championships to win.

Scary.

1. Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant is entering his fifth year in the NBA, and in the four short years that proceeded it, he has nearly become a household name.

Durant will be turning just 27 years old in five years, an age in which many players in the NBA are right around their peak.

In five years, Durant should have already won a championship, but he should also have added weight to his still slight frame and more physical defense to his repertoire.

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