Saints vs. Jaguars: Why New Orleans Shouldn't Take Jacksonville Lightly

As far as noteworthy events that most NFL experts would expect from the Jacksonville Jaguars this season, firing their head coach and moving to Los Angeles would have greater odds than the team actually defeating the New Orleans Saints on Sunday.

In fact, the Jags beating the Saints might be one of the biggest upsets in all of football this season if it were to happen. And it would almost assuredly be Jacksonville's most impressive victory.

Jacksonville is a really poor 1-2 team. The Saints are very deserving 2-1 team that easily could be 3-0. So on paper it is clear, the Jags should not beat the Saints.

But as annoying analysts remind us all the time, the game is not played on paper, and that is why the Saints must not take the Jaguars lightly on Sunday.

Reason No. 1: History

In 2003, the Saints traveled to Jacksonville in Week 15 needing a big win--one they should have had. Every Saints fan--perhaps every football fan--remembers what happened that fateful December day.

Aaron Brooks completed a pass on the last play of the game, that after about five or six laterals ended up in the end zone for a Saints would-be tying touchdown.

Then John Carney, one of the most reliable kickers in NFL history, missed the extra point and the Saints lost.

Fast forward to 2010 when the Saints hosted the Cleveland Browns at the Superdome. It should have been an easy victory, but Cleveland behind rookie quarterback Colt McCoy came in and shocked the Saints.

Then the Saints proceeded to lose a playoff game to a team that most NFL enthusiasts wanted to petition their playoff eligibility. Most experts predicted an easy victory for the Saints, yet guess who came out on top? The 7-9 Seattle Seahawks!

This game is potentially a trap in the same way that those games were. Thus it is essential the Saints not look down on the Jags but prepare to play as if Jacksonville is just as good if not better than Houston or any of the opponents the Saints have already faced.

Reason No. 2: Young QBs Kill the Saints

This is partially an overlap of the first idea. But I am speaking specifically of young QBs the Saints have faced over the years. Many of them have had great success against the Saints.

Of course, I already mentioned Colt McCoy's tremendous effort in the Bayou a season ago. But a few other examples pop into my head also.

The first Saints game I ever went to was Dec. 18, 2006. I remember that game like it was yesterday. The Saints had the opportunity to clinch the NFC South if they could just defeat a rather meager Washington Redskins squad.

Yet young gun Jason Campbell came in and played perhaps his best game as a pro (or at least with that team) and the Redskins walked out of New Orleans with a W.

Earlier in that season, rookie Bruce Gradkowski nearly defeated the Saints in his first start for the Buccaneers. In 2008, Matt Ryan gave the Saints defense fits.

Heck, even last year, the Saints lost a road game they definitely should have won against the Arizona Cardinals with Max Hall at quarterback. Hall isn't even on the Cardinals' roster this season.

It's been a real issue for the Saints for a number of years. The Saints must be as ready for Blaine Gabbert as they can possibly be. If they are able to right that proverbial ship, they should walk out of Northern Florida with a W.

Reason No. 3: A Possible Letdown

After last week's super emotional victory at home (five years to the day of the reopening of the dome, and with Steve Gleason's honorary captain status), the Saints are in a potentially dangerous spot this Sunday..

Very few teams are going to play with the kind of energy New Orleans did last week, for a second straight week. Also, it is an early road game in a likely empty stadium against a bad team, and a young quarterback. All of these factors seem to point to a likely downturn in effort.

But effort is a key to the Saints playing well, as it is with all teams.

Reason No. 4: The Jags Are Playing for Their Future

As I mentioned previously, the Jaguars are more likely to fire their head coach and/or move to Los Angeles than they are to beat the New Orleans Saints.

And that in itself ought to be enough motivation for the Jags to play with everything they have. They should desire to not be the bunch that was bad enough to cause their team to be moved and/or their head coach to be fired.

If these things don't get a professional football player to play his best, what can?

Reason No. 5: The Jaguars Running Game

Notice that up until now I mentioned nothing of the X's and O's of this game. I purposely mentioned only the x-factors, the intangibles, the psychological aspects of the game. I did so because it clearly has nothing to do with how this game will turn out.

Well, except the run defense will be an essential aspect of winning this game. Maurice Jones-Drew is a powerful, quick, elusive back who challenges every defense. The offensive line isn't the greatest, but Jones-Drew makes up for it with raw natural ability.

Jones-Drew is the Jaguars' offense, with the exception of one other player (more on him in a moment). He catches the ball out of the backfield, as he is great in the screen game, and is wonderful in pass protection. New Orleans needs to stack the box and force the other guy to beat them.

Reason No. 6: Tight End Marcedes Lewis

With any success in the running game, the Jaguars can then run a lot of play-action where Jacksonville loves to hit their tight end Marcedes Lewis. Because Lewis is their primary passing target, Jacksonville will look to line him up anywhere on the field that would create a favorable matchup.

With Mike Thomas taking up Jabari Greer's attention, Lewis will face a linebacker, or Roman Harper. For that reason, Lewis is an effective player and necessary to any success the Jaguars' offense may have. If Lewis really does get matched up on Harper or a linebacker, even a rookie such as Gabbert could find him wide open.

Because he is such a nightmare to cover with his exceptional size and speed, only Roman Harper or Jenkins have the size to play the ball if and when Lewis gets thrown to. The speed that Jenkins has, though, is the only way to slow Lewis down.

I know it will probably be Harper who gets the matchup, but stopping Lewis can only be done by Jenkins. Otherwise, the Saints may actually give up some points to an offense that has no right to score any points on the Saints.