MLB Playoffs 2011: Why Game 1 Is a Must-Win for Arizona Diamondbacks

The Milwaukee Brewers went an NL-best 57-24 at home, lending some extra weight to the homefield advantage they hold in the NLDS. Arizona, however, has one key weapon that might be able to turn the tide: ace right-hander Ian Kennedy.

Kennedy went 21-4 with an impressive 1.086 WHIP this season. Remarkably, he’s not even a serious Cy Young contender in this top-heavy season, but he might be the best non-Phillie in the NL playoffs.

If Kennedy wins the opener, he guarantees the Diamondbacks two games at home, one of which he would be able to start. Under those circumstances, Arizona has a real chance to take the series.

If, on the other hand, Kennedy falls to Yovani Gallardo, the outlook becomes much bleaker for the D-backs.

No Brewers starter can match Kennedy’s performance this season, but after him, the Arizona rotation drops off. Even projected Game 2 starter Daniel Hudson, a 16-game winner, has battled rocky starts that, if they recur, could prove disastrous against the homer-happy Brewers.

Add in the hand injury that may leave Joe Saunders less than 100 percent for Game 3, and a loss from Kennedy could spark a Milwaukee sweep. As much as anything else, that’s the danger of a Game 1 defeat: the prospect that Kennedy would only get to make one start.

Milwaukee, for its part, has a more balanced rotation to lean on. After Gallardo, the Brewers will be able to send Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum, both of whom would likely have the edge against their Diamondbacks counterparts.

As a staff, Arizona gave up 159 homers, worst among NL playoff teams. Against a Brewers team that led the league with 185 long balls, that alone puts the Diamondbacks at a disadvantage.

If Arizona loses the opener, they’ll have failed to capitalize on their one concrete edge in the series. That could be all the leeway the Brewers need to move on to the NLCS.