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Alabama vs. Florida: Last-Minute Spread Info and Predictions

Michael DixonAnalyst IIIOctober 1, 2011

TUSCALOOSA, AL - OCTOBER 02:  The offense of the Alabama Crimson Tide against the defense of the Florida Gators at Bryant-Denny Stadium on October 2, 2010 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

One of the biggest matchups of the early season will take place on Saturday. Two undefeated SEC rivals will clash when the Florida Gators host the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Alabama won 31-6 when these two played in 2010.

This game will match the 2008 National Champions (Florida) against the 2009 National Champions (Alabama). In each team's National Championship season, they beat the other in the SEC title game.

Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Gainesville, Fla.

When: Saturday, October 1 at 8 p.m. ET

Watch: CBS

Spread

Alabama enters the game as 4.5-point favorites. Basically, if you think they are going to win, you might as well go with them to cover.

My best advice would be to go with the Crimson Tide to win and cover. Florida is good, but they don't have Alabama's overall depth.

Over/Under

Bodog sets the over/under at 45. If both teams score in the low-20's, they will go over that. I don't see that as being much of a problem.

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I like Alabama to win, but Texas' offense is too good to not score a least 20 points. From there, all Alabama needs (assuming they win) is 26.

The SEC can produce some low scoring games, but I like the over here.

Key Injuries

Alabama LB Chris Jordan (body), and LB CJ Mosley (shoulder) are questionable.

Alabama S Wesley Neighbors (undisclosed), S Kendall Kelly (undisclosed), and DL Kerry Murphy knee are out.

Alabama WR Duron Carter (academics) is out for the year.

Florida WR Andre Debose (undisclosed), RG Jon Halapio (leg), QB John Brantley (ribs), and TE Jordan Reed (hamstring) are probable.

Florida CB Jeremy Brown (knee) is out.

BCS/Top 25 Poll Implications

Given the conference they play in, each team needs a win. Florida can lose and still win the SEC East, but I wouldn't like their chances against Alabama or LSU in an SEC Title Game.

The winning team will be a very viable National Championship contender. Alabama already is, but Florida isn't far behind.

Keys to Alabama Win

They won't shut the Florida attack down, but they need to contain it. Offensively, Alabama just can't turn the ball over.

A.J. McCarron is coming along as a quarterback. He just needs to avoid mistakes and allow his teammate play makers like Trent Richardson to shine.

Keys to Florida Win

Score early and get the crowd into the game. If Charlie Weis can keep Nick Saban and the Alabama defense guessing, Flordia has the speed in Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps to make a lot of big plays.

GAINESVILLE, FL - SEPTEMBER 10:  Chris Rainey #1 of the Florida Gators runs for yardage during a game against the UAB Blazers at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on September 10, 2011 in Gainesville, Florida.  (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

Prediction

Florida is good, but Alabama is just too deep. Rainey and Demps won't be shut down, but I can't see them doing enough to win this one.

Alabama 31, Florida 21.

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