Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Why He Isn't a Legit NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase Contender

The body slamming whirlwind of the new points system can take a Chase driver from king of the hill into a stomach-churning slide with a loss of points that may effectively ruin a run for the title, faster than ever before.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. made it back into the NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup title this year after floundering in the performance department during the 2009 and 2010 season.

The driver of the Amp Energy/National Guard No. 88 was as high as third in the Chase point standings, but tire troubles caused him to drop to eighth after the second race in New Hampshire.

Earnhardt is finding the pressure of being in the Chase much less stressful than the 26 week preseason grind to make the Chase.

Certainly Junior and his new team led by crew chief, Steve Letarte, have suffered some growing pains as a new team, but overall they have appeared to jell.

Letarte provides the motivation and guidance that his driver needs to stay focused and maintain confidence in his equipment.

The third race of the Chase at Dover showed that events both in and out of the control of the team can be costly in the run for the Sprint Cup title.

 The unexpected happened to Earnhardt at the start of the race when he found himself with an ill-handling car before he took the green flag.

A broken suspension piece that required replacement of the sway bar in the very first laps of the race could hardly have been predicted, but the team replaced it quickly.

Though Junior returned to the track at the back of the pack, he made his way up to the 14th position.

The Hendrick driver made a green flag pit stop after the midpoint of the race. He returned to the track and discovered a vibration.

On lap 271 the No. 88 car returned to the pits because of a right front loose wheel that resulted from a pit crew error. In the Chase, such errors can be very costly and that was the case at Dover.

Earnhardt was never back in contention for even a Top 10 run and with his 24th place finish he dropped two slots to 10th in the point standings, 34 markers behind the leader.

In a post-race interview aired on Speed TV, a dejected Earnhardt said, "We'll just try not to have loose wheel next time."

Junior can't afford to get down at this point in the game and he has to be a cheerleader for his team just as much as Letarte has to motivate his driver.

 Seven races remain in the Chase and for Earnhardt to have a shot at the title, he would have to win one or more races and have consistent Top Five finishes with a hint of bad luck to other contenders.

Letarte took the conservative approach in the races leading to the Chase and now that he is being more aggressive with the car they have had some problems that may be attributed to the car setup.

It will become mandatory for the team to unload a fast car that is near perfection on each of the upcoming tracks. At worst case the car can't be so far off that it takes multiple attempts to correct.

The No. 88 team does not appear to be able to do that consistently. They have fast cars during the race for the most part, but they still aren't at the top of their game.

The Amp Energy/National Guard car fails to qualify well, which not only puts Junior back in harms way at the start of the race, but it does not allow for a good pit box selection.

Earnhardt Jr. has his best chance of winning at Talladega. He has won at Phoenix and Texas, but it is hard to call him a favorite at any track other than the Superspeedway in Alabama where he has five wins.

 Fantasy, folly, or reality are all words that might be applied to the chances of Earnhardt Jr. winning a NASCAR Sprint Cup championship this year.

It would depend on your staunch allegiance to Junior Nation, whether you are a casual observer of Junior or one of his diehard naysayers who are quick to deny that he is anything more than an average driver.

Though Earnhardt Jr. is not likely a legit contender for the 2011 Cup title, he will win a championship before his tenure at Hendrick Motorsports concludes six seasons from now—barring any contract extensions.

The winless streak, which has now reached 122 races is sure to come to an end. Once Dale Jr. finds his way back to Victory Lane with Letarte and company, more wins will follow.

A winning driver will make the Chase and contend for a Sprint Cup title. So for those fans of Earnhardt who find this article disheartening, continue to believe.

The driver of the No. 88 is a legitimate contender to win the series title in the elite series of NASCAR, just not this year.