Handicapping 2012 Olympic Basketball Teams' Chances for Gold

The FIBA Championships have all wrapped up now that China has finished off the rest of their continent in the FIBA Asia Championship, securing their spot in the 2012 Olympics.

Obviously, the defending gold medalists and FIBA World Basketball Championship gold medalists the United States are the favorite for the gold medal in 2012, but is it such a foregone conclusion? Remember what happened in 2004 when it was pretty much a foregone conclusion that the US would win the gold?

The nine teams that have qualified for the Olympics so far have all either won a tournament in their respective tournament (or in Brazil and France's case, came in second) and have no reason to worry about the Olympic Qualifying Tournament in July next summer.

There are some teams who are looking to make one last run to get the most out of their time in the Olympics while others are young up-and-comers who could make a splash this year as a precursor of what is to come. 

So, for your reading pleasure, and because I'm sure some of you are hoping for a welcome change to NBA lockout talk, I decided to run down the list of contenders in the London Olympics next year.

Each team is ranked in order and is accompanied with odds of them winning the gold medal.

FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament

Like I said before, only nine teams have officially qualified for the Olympics with 12 spots total open for different teams, leaving three holes to be filled.

The FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament will be held in July, a month before the Olympics start to determine the final three "wild card" teams in the Olympics.

To judge the ability of each of the world teams to medal in this tournament (which gets them a spot in the Olympics) I've taken a look at performance over the past few months and what their team is likely to look like next July.

Turkey

One of the fastest rising teams in international competition, Turkey has just a few NBA players that are recognizable, but they have one of the best European leagues filled with Turkish players waiting to jump on the team.

They went undefeated in the 2010 World Tournament until they played the United States in the Gold Medal Game, beating everyone from Puerto Rico and Greece to France and Serbia, and that's without Enes Kanter playing.

They had a lackluster showing in EuroBasket 2011, with losses to Poland and Lithuania in the group stage (although they did beat Spain) and losses in all three games in the second round.

Lithuania

Always a good international team, Lithuania had a similar showing as Turkey in the 2010 World Tournament, winning the bronze medal and notching wins over France, Brazil, a romp over Argentina in which they won by 19 points and the bronze medal game over Serbia.

They are stocked with young big men (Jonas Valanciunas played in EuroBasket and Donatas Motiejunas is expected to attempt to join the team) and ended up placing fifth in EuroBasket 2011 this year with a final win over Greece.

Russia

I may be going out on a limb here overlooking Greece, Serbia, Germany and a few other teams, but Russia has looked like the hot hand to play over the past few months

Showing rapid improvement since the 2010 World Tournament where they placed seventh, Russia got stellar play from Andrei Kirilenko in EuroBasket, winning the bronze medal with their only loss coming in a close game with France.

12. Great Britain-'OFF'

Notable Players: Luol Deng

Last International Tournament (Place): EuroBasket 2011 (13th), Wins over Portugal and Poland.

Great Britain is making just their second appearance in Olympic history with their automatic bid coming from the games being held in London.

Surprisingly enough, the last time they were in the Olympics for basketball was 1948 when the games were also held in London.

This should be a thing where Great Britain is happy to be there and end up lucky to win a game or two.

I mean, you can only expect so much from a team whose backup point guard is named Devon von Oostrum.

11. Tunisia-'OFF'

Notable Players: Salah Mejri (only Tunisian in European Leagues, devastating seven-footer)

Last International Tournament (Place): FIBA Africa Championship (First)

Tunisia broke Angola's death grip on the FIBA Africa Championship, stopping their streak at six straight championships to qualify for the tournament.

They will be making their first appearance in the Olympics and should be easily dispatched, although that's not to say they can be completely ignored.

Still, as no African team has ever even made it to the bronze medal game in the Olympics, I have to go ahead and say that they aren't a threat to medal.

10. China: 1000:1

Notable Players: Yi Jianlian, Wang Zhizhi, Sun Yue

Last International Tournament (Place): FIBA Asia Championship (First)

The Chinese National Basketball team is going into its first Olympics without Yao Ming since 1996, having had Yao in the 2000, 2004 and 2008 games where they placed 10th, eighth and eighth respectively.

Yi, Wang and Sun are all current or former NBA players, and many of the players on their roster are veterans of the Olympics, with most of their 2008 team looking likely to return for 2012.

Still, even with all their veterans they shouldn't be a threat to upset anyone's time in London.

9. Australia: 500:1

Notable Players: Andrew Bogut, Patty Mills

Last International Tournament (Place): FIBA Oceania Tournament (First)

Even though they were without Andrew Bogut for the Oceania Tournament last month (FIBA couldn't work out his insurance issues in time) Australia continued to dominate the region, winning their 17th gold in 19 appearances.

The Aussies should be a more dangerous team than they were in the 2010 World Championship, as Bogut was still wet behind the ears and Patty Mills was still adjusting to the high level of play.

They shouldn't be too dangerous, but they shouldn't be overlooked either.

8. Russia: 250:1

Notable Players: Andrei Kirilenko, Sasha Kaun, Timofey Mozgov

Last International Tournament (Place): EuroBasket (Third)

With Andrei Kirilenko leading their team at a torrid pace in the EuroBasket Tournament, the Ruskies were able to capture the bronze medal.

They are also joined by former Kansas center Sasha Kaun and current member of the Nuggets Timofey Mozgov, along with a slew of names that sound like they should be on a hockey rink instead of a basketball court.

Russia could be an interesting team here and could break out of the group stage with a little luck, as Kirilenko always seems rejuvenated when he plays in international tournaments.

7. France: 100:1

Notable Players: Tony Parker, Joakim Noah, Boris Diaw, Nicholas Batum

Last International Tournament (Place): EuroBasket 2011 (Second)

As crazy as it sounds, and probably because the French team hasn't done anything in the Olympics since medaling in 2000, France could be the perfect storm brewing as an upset pick.

They have Tony Parker at his peak as a veteran leader, Joakim Noah coming in to do what Joakim Noah does, Boris Diaw entering his highest level of play, Nicholas Batum coming out of nowhere in the past NBA season.

What's more, they could be joined by the likes of Ian Mahinmi and Ronny Turiaf, both of whom have been at the team at various times before, just kept out of the EuroBasket tournament because of slow insurance clearance.

Look for France to make some waves in pool play, possibly getting out and clawing their way through a few games in the knockout stage.

Hell, this team could even medal if everything goes right.

6. Lithuania: 50:1

Notable Players: Jonas Valanciunas, Linas Kleiza

Last International Tournament (Place): EuroBasket (Fifth)

Lithuania had a decent showing in the EuroBasket tournament last month with Jonas Valanciunas showing off that he is more than just hype, coming off the bench and blocking shots left and right.

Valanciunas should be more seasoned when the Olympic Qualifying Tournament rolls around (so long as the NBA season isn't canceled), and should impart an even bigger impact.

After all, they are touting him as the best thing to come from the country since Zydrunas Ilgauskas.

5. Turkey: 50:1

Notable Players: Omer Asik, Ersan Ilyasova, Enes Kanter, Hedo Turkoglu

Last International Tournament (Place): EuroBasket (11th)

This Olympics will probably be the last for Hedo Turkoglu, if he ends up playing at all, so this should be a passing of the torch of sorts to the young Enes Kanter.

Kanter showed off well in the EuroBasket tournament, even though Turkey didn't fare that well, but they did end up meeting the United States in the gold medal game back at the 2010 World Championship. 

By the time the Olympic Qualifying Tournament rolls around, Kanter should be back into the swing of playing competitive basketball consistently, and should be even more of a threat after the NBA season.

4. Brazil: 25:1

Notable Players: Anderson Varejao, Tiago Splitter

Last International Tournament (Place): FIBA Americas (Second)

Brazil was probably the most impressive international team in this year's slew of FIBA tournaments, especially when you consider that they didn't have Anderson Varejao, who many consider to be their best player.

They nearly beat Argentina, who has had a death grip on South American basketball for years now with impressive physical play from Splitter and especially Rafael Hettscheimeir.

Brazil is competing in the Pan-American Games in a month, which should give us another point to assess whether they are for real or not, but right now they look like a very dangerous team.

3. Argentina: 20:1

Notable Players: Manu Ginobili, Carlos Delfino, Luis Scola, Andres Nocioni, Fabricio Oberto

Last International Tournament (Place): FIBA Americas (First)

This could be the swan song for Argentina, as they have only one regular player under the age of 30 (Delfino is 29), and their top players will be 40 (Oberto), 38 (Ginobili), 35 (Scola), 35 (Nocioni) and 33 (Delfino) by the time the 2016 Olympics roll around.

On top of that, they don't have the deep well of talent that the European countries or Brazil has, so they could be like an animal backed into a corner in the Olympics.

I would watch out for Argentina, because if the USA doesn't take this all seriously, Argentina could be walking away with the gold.

2. Spain: 10:1

Notable Players: Pau and Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, Jose Calderon, Rudy Fernandez, Ricky Rubio

Last International Tournament (Place): FIBA Europe Tournament (First)

Just think about this for a second, at center and power forward, Spain has Pau and Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka and 2009 Spanish League MVP Felipe Reyes, while the USA's big men look to be Dwight Howard, Lamar Odom, Kevin Love and Tyson Chandler as their four down low.

Doesn't that matchup seem just a little too close for comfort, especially in international play when big men with a jumper seem to dominate play over big, physical guys?

I'm not saying Spain is going to win this tournament, but giving Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka another year to develop (into what could be two of the five best big men in the league) could be scary for the US.  I don't even want to think about what could happen if Rubio turns out to be for real.

1. USA: 4:3

Notable Players: (Potential players) Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Deron Williams, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Derrick Rose, Lamar Odom, Rudy Gay

Last International Tournament (Place): FIBA World Championship (First)

When the US competed in the FIBA World Tournament, the squad that we put on the court was deemed "The B Team," a shot at the fact that almost nobody from the 2008 Olympic squad was on the team.

Originally, Jerry Colangelo demanded that the players who wanted to play in the 2008 Olympics needed to make a multi-year commitment to USA basketball, stemming from the embarrassment in 2004. However, the same stipulation is not in place going into 2012's Olympics.

Colangelo said he would be open to players from the Redeem Team joining the B-Squad from last year's FIBA Championships.

Obviously the US has the most talent of any of the other teams in the tournament, but could jamming the best parts of two squads together hurt them?  Isn't it possible that there are problems with the team gelling quickly enough to compete with teams that have been together for the past three years?

I'm not worried about talent, but Spain and Argentina scare me and this isn't 1992 anymore, international teams are more developed and have a better basketball mentality than they did when Michael Jordan and his cohorts romped all over the world.  This could be an interesting time at the Olympics.

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