NFL Predictions Week 4: How Will the AFC East Shake Out?

After three weeks of the NFL season, one of the tightest division races is forming in the AFC East.  The division is filled with surprises, disappointments and drama that will make for an interesting race going forward.

So with only a few weeks under our belt, it is time to take a look and see how the rest of the season might play out with respect to the AFC East.  Will New England continue their dominance, or will an up and coming team like the Bills find themselves playing spoilers as they did last week?  Lets take a look and find out. 

4. Miami Dolphins (4-12)

Although this is one of the most competitive division in the NFL, one team is left on the outside looking in.  After a valiant effort against the Patriots Week 1, everything has been downhill for Chad Henne and the Miami Dolphins.

Miami came into the season with a lot of turmoil and question marks during the offseason, starting with their head coaching position.  The front office tried to essentially dump Tony Sparano after hearing that Jim Harbaugh was ready to come to the NFL.  After he declined the Dolphins offer, they went to Sparano and decided to try to kiss and make up.

The story of Chad Henne is very similar to that of his coach.  During the offseason the Dolphins tried to get Kyle Orton, Matt Moore, or it seemed like anyone who could throw to come in and be their starting quarterback.  After a deal with Orton fell through, Miami still signed Moore who is now riding the pine in favor or the bitter, albeit better, quarterback Chad Henne.

Another problem is in the backfield, where the Dolphins took a chance on former Saint Reggie Bush.  They thought he could be an every down back, but it turns out he's better at just sitting down on the bench.  They have given the starting running back position to rookie Daniel Thomas, and it looks like things will stay that way for the rest of the season.

I don't see things getting much better for the Dolphins and they look to be finishing the season at a lowly 4-12.  On the bright side for Dolphins fans, you may just be bad enough to win the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.  What more could the Dolphins ask for?

3. Buffalo Bills (10-6)

If you looked at a stat line of 841 YDS, 64.9 CMP%, 9 TD, 3 INT and a 103.5 passer rating so far this season, who do you think you are looking at?  Drew Brees?  Aaron Rodgers?  Phillip Rivers?  Not even close.  You are looking at Ryan Fitzpatrick's 2011 stats.

The Bills are hands down the biggest surprise of the young season, and I see no reason why they can't continue this trend.  They are riding a hot quarterback and a solid yet youthful defensive core to victory after victory.  

The Bills are not faced with that tough of a schedule the rest of the season.  They already have a huge upper hand by beating the Pats and should have no problem getting wins against teams like the Bengals, Broncos, Titans and Dolphins (two times).  Even if they only win these games, that would put the Bills at 8-8.

I think that Buffalo can also win a few of their other games and will finish the season at 10-6, only missing out on second place in the division because of the fact that the Jets will beat them in the tiebreaker.  With this being said, I think this season will still be the Bills' first taste of the playoffs since 1999. 

2. New York Jets (10-6)

I will be the first person to admit that the New York Jets have a lot of question marks for the rest of the season, but they always find a way to come together and make a strong run at the division title and the playoffs.

Mark Sanchez has been less than stellar this season, only having six TDs compared to four INTs.  He needs to step up his play, but as the season goes on and he gets used to his new receivers, I think the offense will start to gel much more.  

Plaxico Burress needs to get his injury situation figured out, and he has to do it quickly.  Burress has showed how dangerous a weapon he can be going downfield and once the Jets get into the red zone, but he does nothing to help them if he is on the sidelines on Sundays.  

The Jets need to get back to more of a ground-and-pound style of offense as they seem to have lost their identity so far in 2011.  Shonn Greene has still yet to step up and become a true No. 1 back and Sanchez needs to continue targeting Dustin Keller.  Although Keller is having a good year, there are some points in games where the offense seems to stagnate and Keller is almost never targeted during those times.

The Jets will continue to ride a solid defense and get back to pounding the ball on the ground.  I look for them to finish 10-6 and capture a wild card birth. 

1. New England Patriots (11-5)

The Patriots have been the cream of the crop in the AFC East, and I think that trend will continue in 2011.

Even with a loss to the Bills, which no one saw coming, the Pats were very unlucky on some tipped balls and still almost came out of Buffalo with a victory.  Tom Brady threw four interceptions in the game, and knowing the way he plays the game I doubt that he will throw four more interceptions the rest of the season.

Brady will continue to be the best quarterback in football, and with an army of weapons and wide receiver and tight end there is no reason that the offense cannot win game after game for New England.

The defense has been the biggest problem for the Patriots so far this year (I highly doubt anyone is sending thank you cards to Albert Haynesworth for the way he has played this season).  They have not held any of their three opponents to under 20 points and have been tested in all three of their contests so far.

I think that New England finds a way to tighten up their defense and learns from their loss to Buffalo.  They will finish the season at 11-5 and sit atop the AFC East going into the postseason.