Picks for All Week 4 NFL Games Against the Spread

Last week: 8-8.  Season totals: 31-15-2, Pct. .667.  Best Bets: 7-2, Pct. .778.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.  

SUNDAY  

N.Y. Giants 27, ARIZONA 20 (+3)—Just as a finesse team like the Eagles figures to excel, and does, on artificial turf despite playing their home games on natural grass, a physical team like the Giants figures to excel, and does, on natural grass despite playing their home games on artificial turf. They're 15-5-1 against the spread on grass since 2007, and with forecasted 100-degree heat likely forcing the closure of the retractable roof, their 12-3 spread record indoors since 2002 adds to their wagering appeal in this spot.  

San Francisco 10 (+7), PHILADELPHIA 9—How can you expect a team that doesn't even know how to read an x-ray to win a Super Bowl?  And just because Michael Vick says he is going to start doesn't mean that he is going to finish. The Eagles have been shut out so far this season when Vick hasn't been in there.  This is prime upset timber even with Philly's five-game win streak over San Fran, both ways, by a combined 84 points (they had beaten the Giants six in a row both ways prior to last week).  

JACKSONVILLE 26 (+7), New Orleans 24—Blaine Gabbert didn't show much against a suspect defense in his first start but that was on the road, and things will be different at home. Things are almost always very different, and not in a good way, for the Saints whenever they have to venture outdoors, covering only two of seven in this decade, including none of the last four.  Stir in the fact that the home team is 4-0 lifetime both ways in the series, and what you have is the recipe for an upset.  And it's big balloons!

DALLAS 31, Detroit 21 (+1 1/2)—Once upon a time teams that were favored by less than a field goal at home would lose outright far more often than they'd win and cover.  But not recently. Dating back to Week 6 of last season, 17 sub-three-point home favorites have won and covered, versus only seven that lost outright (one won but didn't cover and another won straight-up and pushed against the spread).  Coming off a first win at a division rival's building in 14 years and winning on the road anywhere within the division for the first time in four years is definitely the stuff that letdowns are made of.  

Buffalo 35, CINCINNATI 14 (+3)—Cedric Benson may be suspended for three games beginning this week and the Bengals have lost ten consecutive games to the Bills. How come Ryan Fitzpatrick never showed anything like this in either Cincinnati or St. Louis?  

Tennessee 16 (+1), CLEVELAND 10—Another less-than-three-point home favorite. I know but, believe it or not, the Titans own the league's top-ranked defense through three games, and can't see Cleveland's velocity-challenged offense doing much to change that.  

CHICAGO 17, Carolina 14 (+6)—Cam Newton cooled off considerably last week, but still did enough to win.  This one likely gets decided on the game's final play, so the six points are definitely worth taking.  

ST. LOUIS 24 (+1), Washington 10—Monday night's loss was Washington's eleventh straight on artificial turf.  The Redskins have also dropped their last six in domes, and St. Louis has covered in each of the last four meetings.  Last chance for the Rams—If they lose here, feel free to bet against them the rest of the year.  

Pittsburgh 20 (+3), HOUSTON 14—These teams have met three times previously, with the Steelers having outgained the Texans by a comical 1,115 total yards to 502. Pittsburgh lost the first one when Tommy Maddox gave the game away single-handedly by allowing three touchdowns on turnovers.  Not ready to climb aboard the Houston bandwagon in the post-Peyton Manning AFC South just yet. 

KANSAS CITY 28 (+1), Minnesota 17—Forty years ago, and about this time of year too, a song entitled You Gotta Crawl Before You Walk was popular.  Well the Chiefs "crawled" last week with a never-in-doubt spread cover at San Diego, and now figure to "walk" in a series, in which the home team has walked all over the visitors six straight times, both ways. Minnesota's straight-up records on grass and outdoors, respectively, going all the way back to December of 2000 are 13-39 and 15-48.  

Atlanta 27, SEATTLE 10 (+4)—It didn't take long for the NFC West to establish itself as the NFL's weakest division yet again. Furthermore, the Falcons haven't exactly gone "Coverless in Seattle" of late, doing that very thing in four of their last five there.  

GREEN BAY 41, Denver 14 (+13)—Part of me thinks that Kyle Orton will throw for his usual 300 yards and lose, and at this number, that means the Broncos would probably cover. But cover is something Denver has never done when visiting the Packers in franchise history (0-5).  

SAN DIEGO 30, Miami 24 (+9)—Why not keep on picking against the home team in every Dolphins game?  The Chargers find a new way to not cover every week.  

New England 31, OAKLAND 28 (+4 1/2)—If only New England's defense could play even one-tenth as good as its offense. Buffalo's out-of-nowhere rise transforms this into a textbook sandwich game for the Patriots, who host their mortal enemies, the Jets, next week.  

BALTIMORE 24, N.Y. Jets 13 (+3 1/2)—Don't know about you, but I long for the good old pre-"parity" days when one didn't have to get one's briefs in a bunch over 3 1/2-point spreads.  Nonetheless, the Ravens have beaten the Jets six times in a row, and Rex Ryan's defense looked simply awful in every phase against the Raiders.  

MONDAY NIGHT  

TAMPA BAY 27, Indianapolis 0 (+10)—The last time the Colts were in town, they erased a 21-point deficit with less than four minutes left in the game and won in overtime.  Anyone out there think they will do that again?  

BEST BETS: BUFFALO, ST. LOUIS, KANSAS CITY