New England Patriots vs. Oakland Raiders: Each Team's Edge in Week 4 Showdown
The Tuck Rule game and the Richard Seymour trade are the two big storylines headed into the New England Patriots game against the Oakland Raiders.
Neither of those storylines will have any bearing whatsoever on the final outcome of the game. It will all come down to the match-ups, and how each team responds in any given situation.
The Raiders have been a big surprise, as they have exploded with a dynamic rushing attack the likes of which we haven't seen since the NFL began implementing one rule after another to favor quarterbacks and the passing game.
The Patriots, meanwhile, have been one of those high-flying offenses that the NFL and its fans love to see, but their defense has been the subject of media scrutiny since the onset of the season.
How do the match-ups break down?
Patriots Passing Game vs. Raiders Pass Defense
1 of 7The Patriots rank first in a lot of categories on offense. That says nothing about their defense, but I'll get to that later.
There aren't many quarterbacks who can have four picks in a game and still say they're off to a good start, but Tom Brady is one of them. His passer rating sits comfortably at 113.8, and he's putting up a preposterous 442 yards per game. He also leads all NFL quarterbacks with 11 touchdown passes.
It's pretty hard to stop Brady, and although he threw four interceptions against the Bills, he likely won't do that again. According to Christopher Price of WEEI.com, he averages 69.4 percent completions, two touchdowns and 0.2 interceptions following a four interception game.
Of course, it's not all on Brady. The Raiders could have success if they are able to shut down the Patriots receivers. Good luck with that, though, as the Raiders currently rank 28th in pass defense. What's more, the Patriots are just as successful racking up YAC as the Raiders are unsuccessful at stopping it.
We turn to Price again, who says,
"According to Pro Football Focus, 210 of the 369 yards New York quarterback Mark Sanchez threw for last week against the Raiders came as YAC...One of the reasons the Jets might have been able to pile up those YAC totals Sunday against the Raiders was because Oakland were working with a depleted secondary, and were forced to move from man-to-man to zone.
"
It's no mystery that Welker is one of the best in the league at racking up YAC, and as much as Welker has been a favorite target of Brady's early in the season, the little guy could get his chances against the Raiders. Also look for Julian Edelman to be a factor in the YAC attack.
Advantage: Patriots
Patriots Running Game vs. Raiders Run Defense
2 of 7The Patriots have a good chance to exploit some weaknesses in the Raiders defense. Oakland currently ranks dead last in yards per carry on defense (5.8 YPC). That's pretty bad, to say the least.
Though New England isn't known as a hard-nosed running team, they aren't terrible at running the ball, either. They currently rank 12th in YPC on offense (4.2).
The running game is never the main focus of the offense, as it's rather counterproductive to take the ball out of Brady's hands. However, utilizing the running game as an effective way to keep the defense off balance and force them to respect both the run and the pass is important. It will come down not to how often New England runs the ball, or how many yards they rack up, but running it effectively in the right situations.
New England's ground game has been efficient, even if not deadly. Oakland's run defense, on the other hand, has been neither efficient nor deadly. Look for New England to exploit some of those weaknesses on Sunday.
Advantage: Patriots
Raiders Passing Game vs. Patriots Pass Defense
3 of 7Just like New England's running game, Oakland's pass attack has been efficient, but not deadly. Still, that may be just the right thing for the Raiders on Sunday. Campbell currently boasts a 93.8 passer rating, ranking him among the top 10 in the league in that stat.
New England's defense, on the other hand, has been drubbed for a 94.6 Defensive Passer Rating. That puts them in the bottom 10 in the league. A defense that relied so heavily on interceptions last year has come up with five of them through three games, but New England's inability to play solid man coverage on the outside and inability to force incompletions with pressure has been cause for concern.
Campbell could have all day in the pocket to pick apart the Patriots secondary, and if New England's game plan is to take away Oakland's best threat, he may have no choice. They will likely focus most of their resources on shutting down Oakland's rush attack, which would inevitably put the ball in Campbell's hands.
The Raiders are also only giving up just 3.57 percent negative pass plays on offense, which leads the league, while New England only generates them at an 8.15 percent clip.
New England's defense has been rolled over in the first three weeks of the season, and the outlook isn't good for this week either. However, that may be a sacrifice the Patriots are willing to make if it means taking the ball out of Darren McFadden's hands.
Advantage: Raiders
Raiders Running Game vs. Patriots Run Defense
4 of 7The Raiders running game looks like a mismatch for anyone they face. After all, they gashed the vaunted Jets defense for 234 yards and 7.3 yards per carry. Those are unprecedented numbers against almost any defense, but the Jets defense—and one led by Rex Ryan, no less—are known for stopping the run.
Darren McFadden looks ready to have a field day against any defense he faces this year, bolting out of the gates to a 6.4 yard per carry average and a league-leading 477 yards from scrimmage.
One of the strengths of this rush attack is to get the backs out in space. It will be up to Rob Ninkovich to seal the outside and force McFadden back inside, where there will be sure tacklers waiting with open arms to bring him down.
If not, he could run wild all over the Patriots defense. For the time being, it's hard to see how the Patriots have an advantage in this area. They forfeit 4.3 yards per carry to opposing backs, and their weaknesses play right into Oakland's strengths.
The Patriots will need their cornerbacks to be sure tacklers if McFadden is sprung on the outside, but they will also need Vince Wilfork to return to form in the middle. Needless to say, the Patriots will be much better off if they can stop McFadden at the line. Unfortunately for the Patriots, the way the Raiders offensive line is playing right now dictates that won't be the case.
Advantage: Raiders
Special Teams
5 of 7These duels are becoming less of a factor with the ridiculous amount of touchbacks this year.
Well, Raiders kicker Sebastian Janikowski has already tied the NFL record for the longest field goal in NFL history this season, so there's that.
There's also the fact that Raiders punter Shane Lechler leads the league in yards per punt with a whopping 56.2.
Stephen Gostkowski is usually a consistent field goal kicker, but missed one in the season opener. He's been perfect since then, though, but hasn't been called on much because the Patriots offense is so frequently scoring touchdowns. Zoltan Mesko has been solid but unspectacular.
Advantage: Raiders
Coaching
6 of 7It's hard not to give this advantage to the Patriots on a weekly basis, but it's not hard to see both sides of the story this week.
On the one hand, we have a defensive mastermind in Belichick. On the other hand, we have Hue Jackson, a guy who did nothing more than to lead a down-in-the-dumps offense to one of the biggest turn-arounds in NFL history in scoring output.
Belichick's defensive wizardry is often key in shutting down an opposing offense's best threat. That being said, the Raiders have an offense that is capable of exploiting many glaring weaknesses in the Patriots defense.
There's no doubt that Jackson has already accomplished great things, but I'll take the experience of Belichick in this duel.
Advantage: Patriots
Conclusion
7 of 7I feel ESPN's Mike Reiss summed it up best in his weekly chat.
"I like the Patriots in this game. I would have picked the Raiders had the Patriots beaten the Bills, but here is why I like New England. I view this game as one in which the logo needs to be defended. The Patriots have been called a finesse team. The defense is under media siege. I believe the players are better than they've shown and that they will rally around this to beat the Raiders. As long as the OL can protect, I like the Patriots to put up 30-plus points in this game, and I don't see the Raiders keeping pace.
"
Prediction: Patriots 33, Raiders 24
Erik Frenz is the co-host of the PatsPropaganda and Frenz podcast. Follow Erik on Twitter @erikfrenz.
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