NFL Picks Week 4: New Orleans Saints and the 5 Safest Bets

When you take a look at the matchups and spreads for Week 4 of the NFL season, there aren't that many games that stand out as being easy to pick.

Thankfully, there are a few exceptions. For all the games that are hard to pick, there are a couple that almost seem a little too obvious.

When it comes to games like these, one's first reaction is to proceed with caution. But for the sake of making things a little easier, I'm going to count down five teams that you can feel safe betting on.

Note: All spreads were retrieved from Sportsbook.

5. Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10)

If there is one thing that scares me about the spread for Monday night's matchup between the Colts and Buccaneers, it's that it might be a little too big. After all, the Pittsburgh Steelers were favored to beat the Colts by double-digits in Week 3, and they only won by three.

This being said, the Bucs should have enough firepower to cover a 10-point spread against the Colts. I don't think the Colts have enough offense to mount a charge against the Bucs, and I think the Bucs have just enough offense to find the end zone a couple times against the Colts.

It's going to be a close call, but I foresee the Bucs covering in this one.

4. Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers (-12.5)

We know the Packers can score, as they've topped 25 points in each of their three games.

What we don't know is whether or not the Packers can dominate, as they haven't yet won a game by more than 10 points. As such, they might be favored by a bit too much against the Broncos.

But I'm going to give the Pack the benefit of the doubt. The Broncos have done okay defensively, but that has more to do with the ineptitude of their opponents than anything else. On the other side of the coin, the Broncos are a mixed bag offensively, and the Packers should have no trouble keeping them under wraps.

Long story short, this one should be a blowout.

3. Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-7)

Given the general power of San Diego's offense and the struggles of Miami's defense, you'd think the Chargers would be favored by more than seven points.

The reason the spread is that modest is because the Chargers haven't made it easy for themselves this year. They barely beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1, and they barely beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3. The combined record of those two teams is 0-6.

The one reason I have faith in the Charges to cover is that it won't be September anymore. They typically play much better once they get beyond September, and I expect the Dolphins to be their first victim.

2. Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

The Bills offense is for real, folks. The Bills have scored 113 points this season, and only seven of those were scored via a defensive play.

So if the Bills don't cover a 3.5-point spread against the Bengals on Sunday, it will either be because the Bengals were able to hang with them or because the Bengals found a way to limit Buffalo's offense.

I don't think either of these things are going to happen. The Bills should be able to cover with ease.

1. New Orleans Saints (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Saints have scored more points than any team in the NFC, and Drew Brees is once again looking like an MVP candidate.

On Sunday, the Saints will be going up against the Jaguars, who have scored a grand total of 29 points in three games.

True enough, the Jags have some pretty good defensive numbers, but I think you have to keep in mind that they've compiled them primarily against a bad Tennessee Titans team and on a rain-soaked field against the Carolina Panthers. Their defensive stats are clearly inflated.

These things considered, I see no reason why the Saints won't be able to blow the Jaguars out of the water.