NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 4: Where's the Smart Money Going?

Week 4 of the 2011 NFL regular season is quickly approaching, and the sports books continue to see record amounts of action at the windows.

Casual bettors are busy watching the scores scroll on the bottom of their televisions, while smart money never sleeps in digging through information.

Let's take a closer look at where the smart money is landing on this week's full slate of games.

Detroit at Dallas

Smart money swallowed up the Detroit Lions as three-point road underdogs to the Dallas Cowboys, but it will be interesting to see if they find the home team appealing come Sunday.

Oddsmakers aren't likely to move "America's Team" into the role of home underdog, but crazier things have happened.

Bettors are infatuated with the boys from the Motor City.

New Orleans at Jacksonville

The New Orleans Saints are back to doing what they do best—scoring points—but smart money has driven them down from eight-point road favorites to 6.5.

Perhaps the early action was drawn to fading the team's 1-9 ATS mark when playing teams with a losing record.

I think it may be geared toward this week being the first of three consecutive games away from the comfy surroundings of the Louisiana Superdome.

After all, New Orleans is 2-0 ATS in home games, 0-1 ATS when playing on the road.

You get the picture.

Washington at St. Louis

Let's play the role as the oddsmaker in this contest, pitting a winless home team against a 2-1 squad that just lost on Monday Night Football by two points on the road.

You've got to favor the visitor in this role, which is exactly what happened.

As expected, smart money came in on the St. Louis Rams, especially when finding that they came away with a 30-16 win in this series last year as 4.5-point home underdogs.

The Rams will likely kick off as two-point home favorites when everything is said and done, but all value is gone.

Tennessee at Cleveland

Is this the week that Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson starts earning that massive contract?

Smart money is starting to think so, especially when analyzing such a short opening line when oddsmakers knew that Kenny Britt suffered a major injury in Week 3.

It's likely the following scenario: buy the Titans as underdogs and stay away if they are made favorites.

Buffalo at Cincinnati

Las Vegas is going for another huge score by keeping the Buffalo Bills as three-point road favorites despite over 90 percent of the action coming in on them.

From a technical standpoint, this is a very similar situation to the Detroit Lions of a week ago, as the Bills are not accustomed to being favored away from home.

I've heard the story at least three times this week—the Buffalo Bills are the only team in NFL history to stage consecutive comebacks of 18-or-more points.

Smart money is all over this game.

Minnesota at Kansas City

This is one of those lines that is in the sharp category, as the oddsmakers know that the Minnesota Vikings have blown three consecutive halftime leads.

Due to the road team bouncing back and forth from 1.5 to two-point favorites, the jury is still out in terms of smart money.

Stay tuned.

Carolina at Chicago

Which team do you think the public thinks is the better one to two team right now?

If you guessed the 6.5-point road underdog Carolina Panthers—you'd be correct.

You want to know what smart money is thinking?

You get the picture.

Pittsburgh at Houston

Boy, oh boy, the oddsmakers are playing some games in sending out the Houston Texans three-point favorites against the defending AFC champions.

Then something shocking happened—early wagers actually came in on them Monday afternoon.

Houston is known for underachieving when playing with a over .500 record, which is displayed in head coach Gary Kubiak's 7-19-2 ATS mark in that situation.

A line to watch closely, as it could have been driven up to take the Steelers later in the week.

Atlanta at Seattle

In my opinion, this is one of those contests that both sides are going to win.

Smart money hesitated for a moment in analyzing this line, as Atlanta has looked nothing like the NFC's No. 1 team of last year's regular season.

Just remember this in the land of sports betting—what would this line have been if the teams didn't have the same record through three weeks of the season.

Public bettors also just saw the Seahawks score as home underdogs versus the Cardinals.

Not this time around.

New York Giants at Arizona

Flying off on the road after registering a triple-revenge win over the Philadelphia Eagles isn't exactly a situation for spread success the following week.

Being placed as a favorite is even a worse scenario.

Sharp bettors hammered the Arizona Cardinals as field-goal home underdogs—and for good reason.

The Birds are 7-2 ATS when getting points in front of the home faithful.

Home underdogs are also a solid 9-6-2 ATS through three weeks of action.

Miami at San Diego

The Miami Dolphins are widely known as one of the best road underdogs in the NFL, which immediately caused this line to drop two points.

It's not likely to move any further, as making San Diego a home favorite of less than a touchdown opens up Pandora's Box.

Value is gone, we move along.

Denver at Green Bay

Here we find that Green Bay Packers as double-digit favorites for the second time in three weeks. 

The sharp move may have already occurred, betting against the Super Bowl champions to drop the line to 12.5, only to come back on the home team.

Too tough to call at this point but don't be surprised if the Packers drop the hammer.

New England at Oakland

Oakland Raiders first-year head coach Hue Jackson is becoming a fan favorite in Las Vegas.

Smart money is also getting involved in backing the Silver and Black early, dropping them from six-point home underdogs to 3.5 at some spots.

The party is over, unless you want to back the Patriots later in the week.

New York Jets at Baltimore

Sharp money is definitely a believer in New York Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez getting off the mat this week after failing as road favorites against the Oakland Raiders in Week 3.

The Jets have been driven down from 4.5-point road underdogs to a field goal in their AFC clash against the Baltimore Ravens this Sunday.

You've missed the boat—it has left New York Harbor. 

Indianapolis at Tampa Bay

The Indianapolis Colts will look mighty enticing to casual bettors as double-digit road underdogs on Monday Night Football, especially after covering at home versus the Pittsburgh Steelers.

It really doesn't matter to Joe Public that the previous contest took place at home, as he's only looking at the number.

I'd be very careful, as the oddsmaker may have a trick up his sleeve, as the public can't imagine a prime-time blowout.

Smart money doesn't care if the game is watchable.