UFC 137: Main Card Breakdown and Predictions

UFC 137 may have lost its main event, but don't be fooled. While the card may have lost name power, it has not lost in excitement.  BJ Penn and Nick Diaz will serve as the main event in a fight that simply can't be unexciting.

There will also be two exciting heavyweight matchups.  Matt Mittrione steps up in competition and gets to test his skills against Cheick Kongo. Mirko Cro Cop may well be fighting his last fight against Roy Nelson.

The night also features the debut of Hatsu Hioki, the most highly-ranked featherweight outside the UFC. He'll be greeted by George Roop. Not to mention the bantamweight bout between Jeff Curran and Scott Jorgensen.

Hatsu Hioki vs. George Roop

Japanese fighters are often called overrated.  They often come over to America with high expectations, and usually end up being beaten by slightly above average American competition.

There are several explanations for this.  American fighters cut more weight than the Japanese, so some Japanese fighters find themselves having trouble against larger American wrestlers.  Wrestlers in general aren't abundant on the Japanese circuit.

I don't think Hioki will any problems though.  He is 24-4 in his career, with half of his wins coming by way of submission.  He has never been finished, and his last three losses have all been by split decision.  He has not been decisively beaten since 2003.

He also boasts wins over notable western fighters, including two submission finishes over former title contender Mark Hominick.  His ground game is arguably the best at 145 pounds.

George Roop is a warrior and has good striking, but isn't as well-rounded and has suffered against top talent.  He's also lost most of his fights by submission.  I expect Hioki to take this one.

Decision: Hatsu Hioki by round 1 submission

Scott Jorgensen vs. Jeff Curran

After juggling some fights, the UFC finally decided that Scott Jorgensen vs. Jeff Curran would be added to the main card to fill the gap left by cancelling the main event.

Jeff Curran is a very strong pure grappler.  He's a second degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and 19 of his 33 wins have come by submission.  He has not been knocked out since 2001, and apart from a submission loss in his MMA debut, has only been submitted by Urijah Faber.

Scott Jorgensen is a much younger and less skilled BJJ practitioner, but he has better striking, wrestling and power.  He's 6-1 in his last seven and he has not been finished since 2006.  

He most recently recovered from a unanimous decision loss to Dominic Cruz with a knockout win over Ken Stone via ground and pound.

Curran has a decent record if you look at the numbers, but I think he has long since peaked.  After winning 15 of 16 bouts from 2004-2007, he has lost five of his last nine. Furthermore, his wins have all come over weak competition.  I expect Jorgenson to beat Curran and spoil the debut of his second run in the UFC.

Decision: Jorgenson via unanimous decision

Mirko Filipović vs. Roy Nelson

Both of these fighters are exciting heavyweights but both have had trouble in the UFC, each coming off of two losses.  The loser of this fight may well end up getting the pink slip (or in Mirko's case, asked politely to retire).

Cro Cop is on the tail end of his career, but he is still a threat.  While he doesn't use his legendary kicks to as great effect as he once did, he still boasts good power and technique.  However, he has been knocked out in most of his UFC losses.

Roy Nelson has a granite chin, great power and a superior ground game, so it might seem intuitive to pick him to win.  However, his takedown offense isn't very strong, whereas Cro Cop's takedown defense is quite good.  

As for his striking, even though he's only been knocked out once, Nelson has consistently shown weakness against elite strikers.  He's also very predictable. I think the Croatian will win this one, and win in glorious fashion.

Decision: Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipović by round 3 TKO

Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione

Matt Mitrione is finally getting the step up in competition he deserves after handling his last five opponents.  He will get to test his striking against Cheick Kongo.  Matt Mitrione has deceptive power and good movement, finishing four of his five UFC opponents with strikes.

Unfortunately, Cheick Kongo will be too much for him.  Kongo is both the most powerful and most technically skilled striker Mitrione has ever been put up against.  

Kongo also enjoys a huge experience advantage.  Both have huge power so the fight could go both ways, but I think Kongo's experience will be the difference, handing Mitrione his first loss.

Decision: Cheick Kongo by round 2 TKO

B.J. Penn vs. Nick Diaz

B.J. Penn and Nick Diaz will finish the night with a bout that's bound to be exciting.

Both fighters boast some of the best boxing in the division, and each has a strong chin.  Diaz will hold a four inch reach advantage over Penn, but Penn will hold a significant power advantage.  Penn also mixes it up slightly more than Diaz does.

Both also have very good BJJ, but neither fighter often goes out of his way to bring the fight to the ground. We will likely only see the ground game after one fighter is knocked down or crumbles.

Diaz's biggest advantage over Penn is his cardio.  If the fight gets into the later rounds, Diaz has a much more substantial chance of winning.

I don't see Diaz taking this one though.  Penn is the best fighter Diaz has ever faced in his career, by far.  I think Penn will get the better of the standup and rock Diaz but—unlike some of his previous opponents— won't be tentative of following up on the ground and finishing him.

Decision: BJ Penn by round 1 TKO