Fantasy Football: Should You Trade for Chris Johnson?

The numbers don't lie, right?

Set 1: 4, 6, 7
Set 2: 10, 9, 11

The numbers in Set 1 are Chris Johnson's fantasy point totals for the first three games in standard scoring leagues. The numbers in Set 2 are his point totals from the same three games in PPR leagues.

What does that tell us? First off, it tells us that this isn't what we expected from Chris Johnson. Personally, I thought he might start a bit slow or get hurt as a result of his holdout. But never in my wildest dreams did I imagine that he would be healthy and only average 2.13 yards-per-carry (YPC).

We also notice that Johnson has been nearly twice as productive in PPR leagues. He's still not producing at an acceptable level, but at least he's averaging 10 points per game.

Why? That's really the question here. What has changed from the dominant Chris Johnson we all remember so well? Let's start with a memory check.

WHAT WE REMEMBER

Electrifying long TD runs, 2,000 yards rushing and talk of breaking the rushing record and running for 2,500 yards in a season.

• 2009: 358 carries, 2,006 rushing yards (5.6 YPC), 14 TD's, 50 receptions, 503 receiving yards (10.3 YPC), two TD's

ARE WE REMEMBERING CORRECTLY?

 We all remember the 2009 season. Really we should look at last season.

• 2010: 316 carries, 1,364 rushing yards (4.3 YPC), 11 TD's, 44 receptions, 245 receiving yards (5.6 YPC), one TD

DO WE HAVE ANY OTHER DATA?

Actually we do. From his rookie season when he played 15 games.

• 2008: 251 carries, 1,228 rushing yards (4.9 YPC), nine TD's, 43 receptions, 260 receiving yards (6.0 YPC), one TD

WHAT CAN WE CONCLUDE?

That certain aspects of Johnson's amazing 2009 season are more of the exception than the rule. Johnson's 10.3 yards-per-catch (YPC) number is almost twice that of his other two seasons. The 358 carries Johnson received in 2009 will likely end up being his career high. And rightly so. But that's not a good thing for fantasy owners.

Basically, Johnson's 2009 season represents what will be his career-best season. Look at his numbers from 2010. That's a more realistic picture of what to expect in 2011. While those numbers are that of a top-10 fantasy RB, they don't match Johnson's top-5 RB "perceived value."

MAJOR CHANGES WITHIN THE TEAM STRUCTURE

This is the easy part. Everything is different. The quarterback, the coaching staff and the contract. The one thing that hasn't really changed is the offensive line in front of Johnson. It's almost exactly the same o-line that he had in 2009.

The QB change should only help Johnson. Matt Hasselbeck has proven to be an adequate QB this season. He's definitely an upgrade from the Kerry Collins/Vince Young combo the Titans trotted out last season.

The coaching change won't work out quite as well for Johnson. Former coach Jeff Fisher was an "old school" type of coach who believed in playing defense and establishing the run. New coach Mike Munchak has shown more of an inclination to operate as a pass-first team. This will help Johnson in PPR leagues. But he's probably maxed out at about 300 carries this season.

Chris Johnson held out and Chris Johnson got paid. These first few weeks it has looked like Johnson was constantly looking to break the big run. Maybe he felt the need to justify his contract. Maybe he wanted to be on SportsCenter.

Johnson did not do a good job of taking what the defense has given him. That's most likely the reason that the coaching staff has elected to increase the number of touches that Javon Ringer sees. It's more of a shot across the bow for Johnson than anything else.

So what do all these changes mean? It's a bit too soon to really tell. This coaching staff has only been coaching these players since August. It's going to take more time. Still, none of these changes would explain Johnson's poor performance this year.

WHO HAVE THE TITANS PLAYED?

Good question. They've played at Jacksonville and hosted the Ravens and Broncos. How have these teams defended against the run this season?

Jaguars: 73 carries, 251 rushing yards (3.4 YPC), one TD
Ravens: 71 carries,  252 rushing yards (3.5 YPC), one TD
Broncos: 82 carries, 300 rushing yards (3.7 YPC), one TD

Now, only the Ravens would jump out at you as an "elite" run defense. Look at the numbers. All of these teams have been good against the run. Now for the good news. Between now and Week 13, the Titans only play ONE team that is above the league average in rushing yards allowed.

WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD?

Things got a lot more complicated today. Kenny Britt is out for the remainder of the season. So now what?

Initially, probably more of the same. The Titans opponents have loaded the box and dared Matt Hasselbeck to beat them. So far, Kenny Britt was making them pay. That means that defenses are going to continue to load up against Johnson.

So what? He faced the exact same tactics in 2010 with a worse QB, and still finished as a top-10 RB. He has never scored less than nine TD's in a season. He hasn't scored any yet in 2011. Does it really sound unreasonable to expect Johnson to score nine TD's in his final 13 games? Not really.

Don't forget his holdout. No matter what he was doing to keep himself in shape, it wasn't actually playing football. The more he plays and practices, the better he will play. And don't focus on this Kenny Britt injury as a negative. Britt has never stayed healthy for an entire season, including 2010. So this was bound to happen at some point. But the guy who owns Johnson might be terrified. The slow start and now the Britt injury? That's some snake oil that you can sell.

Throw the first three games out. You get nothing from them. As far as fantasy owners are concerned, they no longer exist. Those games have no bearing on the rest of your season. All that you care about is how many points they score for the remainder of the season. And I fully expect Chris Johnson to finish in the top-10 RB's from this point forward.

So if you can acquire him for anything less than a top-10 RB or WR, I would pull the trigger.

Have you already sealed the deal on a Chris Johnson trade? Are you thinking about making an offer? Feel free to shout it out in the comments or at me on Twitter. Good luck this week.

PS: This means that if you own Chris Johnson I would NOT trade him for anything less than Ray Rice, Darren McFadden, LeSean McCoy or Adrian Peterson.