2011 Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe: Who Will Be the Winner?

With Europe’s most prestigious horse race taking place at Longchamp Racecourse, Paris, this coming Sunday, it is time to take a serious look at the leading contenders with a view to identifying the likely winner.

Before taking a closer look at the field, it is worth noting that 3 year olds have a huge weight advantage over their old rivals in this race. Colts who are 3 years old carry just 123 lbs., while their elders must shoulder 131 lbs. An advantage of 8 lbs. to the youngsters is one explanation that goes some way in explaining why 3 year olds have won Europe's richest race 15 times in the last 20 years.

The current favorite for the race is the French trained filly, Sarafina, who is a 7/2 chance following a luckless third in the race behind Workforce 12 months ago.

She comes to the race in good form having won her last three starts, including the Group One Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud at the end of June. However, she was all out that day to beat the ever popular Cirrus Des Aigles by just a neck when she had a 3 lb. pull in the weights. She was far from convincing last time out too in the Group 2 Prix Foy where she only won by a nose against the Japanese Raider, Hiruno Damour, who will be out to reverse that form in "The Arc."

This time around, Sarafina must concede 3 lbs. to the 3-year-old Colts and makes her a favorite who is well worth taking on.

Irish trainer, Aidan O’Brien, confirmed recently that his "Australian Import" and multiple Group One winner, So You Think, will take his chance in the race. However, the 5-year-old is not experienced at the mile and a half distance, having won the majority of his races over 10 furlongs. Although connections believe this will not be an inconvenience, and expectations are high that he will land the $3.1 million first prize and will become the fifth 5-year-old since the World War II to win the race.

English trainer, John Gosden, has had his sights set on winning the race with his runner Nathaniel ever since the 3-year-old ran away with the Group Two, King Edward Vll Stakes, at Royal Ascot in June. He has since given last year’s Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner, Workforce, a sound thrashing when winning the Group 1 King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes also at Ascot in July and has been kept purposely fresh for a tilt at the Paris showpiece on Sunday Oct. 2.

With the 3-year-old weight advantage in his favor, Nathaniel has the potential to run a big race and having never finished outside of the first two in any of his six starts, it is no surprise to see him as a 6/1 chance.

Galikova, half sister to the three times winner of the Breeders Cup Mile, Goldikova, carries the least weight of all runners since she is a 3-year-old Filly and her chances of upsetting the boys received a huge boost when she won over a mile in the prestigious Group 1 Prix Vermeille at Longchamp a couple of weeks ago. She is a 6/1 chance to become only the third Filly to win the race since 1983.

Elsewhere, there has been little confidence behind Workforce in the build up to the race as the English Runner bids to become only the seventh runner to win this race back-to-back in its 81 year history. The 2010 Epsom Derby was an impressive winner 12 months ago and has done little wrong this season but has found both So You Think and Nathaniel too good in his last two starts and it looks like a tough ask to reverse form with either of those rivals, let alone both.

The runner with the best all round credentials is So You Think and although the weight and history stats are against him, it could be argued that few 5 year olds who have contested this race have been of the standard as this son of dual Breeders Cup Turf winner (2002 and 2003), High Chaparral. He is certainly the one to beat and if he wins in Paris, he is likely to be next seen at Churchill Downs where he'll bid to win the Breeders Cup Classic, for which he is the current favorite.