NFL Picks Week 3: 8 Home Teams Guaranteed to Lose

Looking beyond the obvious individual stories—Cam Newton’s brilliance, Tom Brady picking up where he left off, the injuries to Jamaal Charles and Peyton Manning—home-team dominance might be the most interesting element of the young 2011 NFL season.  

Just last week, the Lions clobbered the Chiefs last week, the Steelers shut out the Seahawks, and the Jets pounded the Jaguars in the Meadowlands.

It’s not exactly going out on a limb to say that those three winners are the superior clubs, but playing at home certainly helped push the games to blowout levels.

But in the modern NFL that’s not always the case. Home teams win just by showing up—look at what the Packers did in the 2010 playoffs—and here are eight more cases where the visitors will come to town and silence the crowd. 

Houston (2-0) at New Orleans (1-1)

Line: New Orleans -4

These two squads aren't so different: Both have the potential to light up a scoreboard, and both teams fell short in 2010 because of shoddy defenses. 

Now certainly Houston and New Orleans made significant defensive upgrades this offseason, but I'm still not convinced they're where they need to be. The Texans have played  a pair of anemic offenses (Miami and Indianapolis), and although the Saints handled a mediocre Bears attack last week, they completely wilted at Green Bay a week earlier. 

This one will be a classic shootout, and because the Texans have their top receiver (Andre Johnson) and the Saints don't (Marques Colston will again be out), Houston will have one more bullet. 

Predicted Score: Texans 41, Saints 38 (OT)

Miami (0-2) at Cleveland (1-1)

Line: Cleveland -2.5

Yes, the Dolphins are pathetic at home, and that's why they are 0-2 and haven't won in Miami since before last Thanksgiving. But the flip side of that is how well they play on the road. 

Last year the beat the Packers and Jets on the road, and now that Daniel Thomas seems to be way ahead of schedule, they will have a running game to attack a pretty good Browns defensive line. 

Still, it's what the Dolphins are capable of doing in the passing game that will give them a win over Cleveland. Brandon Marshall is off to a great start, Davone Bess is a solid second option and Anthony Fasano is vastly underrated. 

Peyton Hillis will keep Cleveland on schedule, but despite Colt McCoy's development they're still lacking a playmaker in the passing game and it will show this week. 

Predicted Score: Dolphins 17, Browns 13

Arizona (1-1) at Seattle (0-2)

Line: Seattle +3.5

Over the last decade or so, the Seahawks have been one of the toughest home teams, so normally I say that it would take a much better team than the Cardinals to leave Qwest Field with a victory. But that's just how bad the Seahawks have been this year. 

Patrick Peterson is going to be a nightmare for that Seahawks kick coverage that was embarrassed by Ted Ginn, and the Cardinals offense is light years ahead of where it was last season. Beanie Wells has had back-to-back solid outings, and Kevin Kolb's been extremely efficient in his first two games. 

For a Seahawks defense that was pounded last week by Pittsburgh, that's not a good sign. Neither is the fact that Seattle's offense is worst in the NFL, averaging just 191 yards per game. 

Predicted Score: Cardinals 27, Seahawks 14

New York Jets (2-0) at Oakland (1-1)

Line: Oakland +3.5

The Jets offense hasn't yet proved it's where it needs to be in order to defeat New England and go to the Super Bowl, but if Mark Sanchez is half as good as Ryan Fitzpatrick was last week in Buffalo, they'll still beat the home team. 

Against a Raiders defense that let Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller run wild (almost 180 yards on 19 carries between the two of them) expect Shonn Greene to break out of a mini-slump. 

Now the Raiders' suddenly explosive offense will give the Jets defense a better fight than the Jaguars or even the Cowboys did thus far in 2011. With Darren McFadden and the emergence of Dernarius Moore, they have serious talent at the skill positions. But without Louis Murphy, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Jacoby Ford and Kevin Boss, both Moore and McFadden will draw a ton of attention from Rex Ryan. 

Predicted Score: Jets 31, Raiders 17

Detroit (2-0) at Minnesota (0-2)

Line: Vikings +3.5

Man, the tables turned fast. A year ago, the Lions had Super Bowl aspirations and the Lions were just hoping to get to respectability. Now it's almost the other way around.

Even though the Vikings offense is a mess and Donovan McNabb has yet to win over anyone, Minnesota still has Adrian Peterson. Of course, against that Ndamukong Suh-led defense (7th in the NFL) he's not a good bet to reach triple-digit yardage. 

But forget about the Vikings offensive woes and the Lions powerful front four for a second. Matthew Stafford has been electric in his first two games. And although the Leslie Frazier's defense has been great in the first half of games (allowing just one score), it's been awful in the second half, squandering double-digit leads both times. As the cliche goes, it's not how you start, it's how you finish and the Vikings have been terrible in that respect. 

Predicted Score: Lions 34, Vikings 21

Baltimore (1-1) at St. Louis (0-2)

Line: Rams +3.5

You'll probably hear this question repeated over and over again on the pregame shows this weekend: "Which Ravens team will show up today? The one that pounded Pittsburgh or the one that was dominated by the Titans?"

I'm inclined to think it's one somewhere in the middle. 

They'll look to take the ball out of Joe Flacco's hands and put it more in the hands of their best playmaker, Ray Rice, who only had 13 carries in Tennessee. 

The Ravens defense may have been mediocre at best last week as Matt Hasselbeck carved them up, but that Rams offense looked lost and uninspired at times in the second half against the Giants on Monday night. Without Steven Jackson at full strength, Baltimore will sell out against the pass (something they couldn't do a week earlier with Chris Johnson on the field), which will be a big problem for Sam Bradford. 

Predicted Score: Ravens 24, Rams 13

Pittsburgh (1-1) at Indianapolis (0-2)

Line: Colts +10.5

How stunning is that point spread!? The Colts 10.5-point underdogs at home!? 

But it's warranted. Peyton Manning's neck isn't the only problem with this team. Peyton Hillis and Ben Tate ran over the Colts front seven, and they've really struggled to put pressure on the opposing passer, which is good news for the Steelers who still have problems protecting Ben Roethlisberger.

And since last week against Seattle, the Steelers defense looked like the Steelers defense we've come to know, Kerry Collins doesn't have much of a chance of getting the ball downfield this week. 

Predicted Score: Steelers 31, Colts 17

Green Bay (2-0) at Chicago (1-1)

Line: Bears +3.5

The Packers may be undefeated, but they did show a few flaws last week in Charlotte, allowing Cam Newton to throw for another 400-plus yards. But because they picked him off four times, they escaped with the win.

So because Jay Cutler has done a decent job of protecting the football so far (only one turnover) he'll keep them in the game....provided they can protect him against Clay Matthews and last year's NFC leader in sacks. They didn't last week as the Saints recorded six sacks.

Still, the Saints really exposed the Bears secondary last week. With the Bears pass rush largely kept at bay, Drew Brees repeatedly hit on every time of pass—short-, medium- and long-range—and torched Chicago. Aaron Rogers is just as good, if not better, and has just as many weapons, if not more.

Predicted Score: Packers 24, Bears 21 (OT)