Fantasy Basketball: Have These Rookies Made You Look Like a Fantasy Vet?

This basketball season, fantasy owners who have invested valuable draft picks in big-name rookies have been more than happy with the results.  There has also been a handful of free agent rookies whom owners have benefited from. 

Are these players just off to hot starts, or is this just the tip of the iceberg for the class of 2008?


The Big Three

Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, and OJ Mayo have not disappointed; from the first week of the season, the big three have been constant producers and there are no signs of slowing.  Many drafts saw the big three drafted between the seventh and tenth rounds, behind much lesser players.

Derrick Rose has started his team's first 15 games and has logged over 40 minutes in six of those games.  Rose is ninth among point-guard eligible players in rebounds with 3.9 per game, he's shooting great percentages for a rookie, and he is below three turnovers per game.

As Rose grows, he will need to improve his 5.7 assists per game, and he is yet to break the double-digit assists mark.  The sky’s the limit for the Chicago native, who is averaging 19.0 points per game.

No. 2 pick Michael Beasley has also been a full-time starter this season, and is averaging 14.8 points in 30 minutes per game.  Beasley has shown the ability to hit the occasional three, and is shooting an average 45.1 percent from the field. He can improve upon that number.

I am disappointed that Beasley is not averaging one steal or block per game, because he is far too athletic to be a marginal defender.  “B-Easy" is sinking his free throws at above 80 percent, and if he can get to the line more and get more involved in the open court, he could be an 18- to 20-point scorer alongside Dwyane Wade.

Critics claimed that OJ Mayo would be too small to get his shot off and that he is too much of a tweener to be a legitimate NBA shooting guard.  But if there’s one thing Mayo loves to do, it’s to prove the critics wrong. 

Fantasy owners who invested a draft pick in Mayo have been handsomely rewarded; 20.6 points and 2 threes per game while shooting 92.5 percent from the stripe is a great start to the season. 

Mayo is seventh amongst point-guard eligible players in rebounds per game, but he needs to improve on his 2.3 assists per game while keeping his 2.6 turnovers per game in check.

Redshirt Rookies

Greg Oden and Marc Gasol have been the two most productive rookie centers this season.  Their connection?  Spanish-born Portland Trail Blazer Rudy Fernandez and the 2007 NBA draft.

Greg Oden has bounced back from his early season ankle injury nicely.  He has season highs of 22 points, 11 rebounds, and four blocks.  The Blazers are working Oden back into the starting lineup, and with 25-30 minutes per game, he should start producing double-doubles on a regular basis.  Oden will struggle from the stripe, but he is efficient down low, shooting 51 percent.

Many laughed when Marc Gasol, the 48th pick of the draft, was thrown into the Lakers-Grizzlies deal for Pau Gasol.  After a great Olympic effort, and 12 points and 12 rebounds in his first NBA game, only the Memphis front-office is laughing. 

Gasol is a fearless, big-bodied center with a soft touch.  He has shot 57.7 percent from the field and 77.4 percent from the stripe this year while averaging 12.0 points and 7.2 rebounds per game.  Gasol is more of an offensive player, only averaging 0.9 blocks per game, but for being a free agent pickup, he is a very good fantasy contributor.

The chants of "Rudy, Rudy" can be heard all through the Pacific Northwest when 24th pick of the 2007 draft Rudy Fernandez steps on the court.

Fernandez has electrified the Blazers with an offensive package very similar to Manu Ginobili, but better away from the ball.  Fernandez is a 94.4 percent free throw shooter, and has made 42.0 percent of his 81 threes through 15 games.

He’s not a great rebounder or passer, but Fernandez will still come away with 1 steal in over 25 minutes of play.  Keep an eye on his minutes when Martell Webster comes back into the mix, however.

The Next Best

The fourth and fifth picks in the NBA draft were good ones, too.  Russell Westbrook has electrified the Thunder’s lineup with points, steals and assists.  Kevin Love's minutes have seen some flux, but when he plays, he produces with points and rebounds.  His field-goal percentage is awful, and we have yet to see his potent passing ability.

Second-round picks Mario Chalmers and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute have been stellar as fantasy options. Chalmers has added 2.1 steals per game along with a few threes and assists.  Mbah a Moute rips down an impressive 7.6 rebounds per game and one steal while scoring a respectable 9.8 points per game.

Since Jason Richardson has been out, D.J. Augustin has averaged 16.3 points and 5.3 assists while shooting 50 percent on his 20 three-point attempts.  Before the injury, Augustin had had 4 double digit scoring games, and his MPG average will continue to rise.

Jason Thompson has given the Kings a third big man who can produce in the lineup.  Through 16 games, Thompson is averaging 11.4 points and 7.0 rebounds per game; and has earned a starting spot while Kevin Martin is out.

Since earning a spot in the starting lineup, Brook Lopez has averaged 14.6 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks per game.  These numbers could grow into a double-double average as Brook continues to get acclimated to NBA play.

Disappointments

The other half of the Lopez Twins, Robin Lopez, has been less than stellar through the Suns' first 13 games.  Lopez, the best shot-blocker in Stanford history, has only swatted seven all year.  He has shot an efficient 52.0 percent from the field, but needs to work harder to get defensive rebounds before he will be a regular for the Suns.

Before the season, there was a lot of hype surrounding NBA Summer League MVP Jerryd Bayless.  With Fernandez, Oden, and Nicholas Batum taking up the rookie minutes, Bayless has only played in about a third of the team's games, logging 36 minutes and shooting 30 percent from the field.

Joe Alexander can jump through the roof, but after the addition of Richard Jefferson, and emergence of Mbah a Moute, Alexander is the odd man out.  He shined in 31 minutes against Denver, but even with Michael Redd injured, Alexander hasn't cracked the regular rotation.

The New York Knicks listened to Mike D'Antoni and drafted Danilo Gallinari with the sixth pick of the draft.  Having only scored two points on the season, it looks like he may be headed in for season-ending back surgery.