New York Mets: Predicting Their 2012 Opening Day Lineup

The New York Mets are undergoing renovations. Get the flares and hard hats out. You may not recognize them when Sandy Alderson is done with the roster this coming offseason. That may not be a bad thing necessarily.

In fact, it could be more beneficial for the future of the franchise to make these adjustments now rather than later. The Mets have many questions to answer in the next few months.

One thing is for sure: They are very eager to move on to a winning direction. If that means losing some players along the way, Alderson has no problems with doing so.

Among these offseason issues are re-signing Jose Reyes, addressing the outfield, solidifying the second base position, concluding the search for a closer and filling out the rotation. For the sake of this article, I will not address the pitching staff or the bench (though they may come in another article at a later date).

For now, let's focus on the starting nine for their Opening Day lineup next year.

F-Mart Will Finally Get His Chance to Stay in Queens in 2012

Leading Off: Fernando Martinez (CF)

The Mets have had an option for their outfield for a few years now. His name is Fernando Martinez. He is young (turns 23 next month), but injury issues (arthritic knees) have caused the Mets to put him on the shelf almost every year since they signed him as an amateur in 2005. He has played 47 games in the past three seasons with the Mets.

During those handful of appearances, he has amassed two home runs with 12 RBI. Every time he has been called up, he has struggled at first (as evident by a .183 AVG) but started to make adjustments before suffering some freak injury or just as the player he is replacing returns to the lineup and ends his stint.

With the outfield depth next season being thin at best, the Mets will give him a solid look, and they will like what they see. He almost made the cut a few times from spring training. In 2012, he will make the roster.

There are most likely a few things you may be asking yourself. First, why is he leading off? Why isn't Jose Reyes in this spot? I believe the Mets will lose the bidding war on Reyes. They will not match any offers from teams equally desperate to acquire him, and therefore, the Mets will be in a position to have to move on.

I hope I am wrong about that, but recent comments from Mets brass suggest this theory is pretty accurate. According to reports by ESPN's Jayson Stark, the team will not wait for Reyes to wade through offseason offers.

They plan on making what they deem a fair offer and move on from there. In other words, they will most likely not be interested in countering any other teams' offers. Their offer, whatever it is, will be their final one.

Next, you may be wondering who the Mets will replace F-Mart with in the outfield. I firmly believe the Mets will be looking to deal Angel Pagan in the offseason. That will leave a hole in center that makes F-Mart more enticing as an option next April. What makes me come this conclusion? Three things.

First, he is becoming a distraction with his constant complaining of health issues this season. With the colitis incident and his recent injury issues mounting, the team may be ready to move on to a younger option.

Secondly, he has struggled at the leadoff position on two different occasions when Reyes went down. Both times, he was not happy about being a leadoff hitter and had to have closed-door meetings with Terry Collins. That shows the team he is not as flexible as they need him to be.

Players like Nick Evans, Lucas Duda and Daniel Murphy have all played multiple positions this year without one word or excuse. Even David Wright, a Gold Glove third baseman, played shortstop for a few innings due to various team injuries. The team looks for flexible players and rejects those who are not (see Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez).

Finally, the Mets placed Pagan on waivers just a month ago. Though he cleared waivers, it is a move teams make to show other teams that a player may be available. Teams do that to gauge the interest in a player from other teams. It is the first step in the trade process.

While most players end their trade speculation there, the other reasons will help the Mets consider dealing Pagan. All of these factors will lead to a hole in center and at leadoff.

They will turn to a player that can fill both: Fernando Martinez.

Daniel Murphy Will Excel in 2012

Batting Second: Daniel Murphy (2B)

Regardless of who is batting leadoff, the Mets need a hitter in the second spot that can consistently make contact. A good contact hitter does two things. One, they allow for the option of a hit and run with speed on the bases with minimum fear of a double play. Second, they get on base ahead of the bigger bats in the lineup more frequently.

The Mets were very impressed with the bat of Daniel Murphy. He was not as much of a cleanup hitter as he was a setup hitter. Due to the injuries of both David Wright and Ike Davis, Murphy had to bat fourth. He did a wonderful job during this season posting a .320 AVG in 109 games. He hit six home runs with 49 RBI and 49 runs scored.

These are numbers comparable to a second-place hitter. The power numbers are low, but he gets on base and scores. He played just a little over half of a season and was extremely productive. His great season was cut down on August 7th when he tore his MCL in his left knee.

The bat is indisputable, but his glove is the major debate when pondering Murphy's role in the starting lineup.  While playing four different positions, he made 10 errors in 106 games (90 starts). His main competition for second base is Ruben Tejada.

But if Jose Reyes leaves (a strong possibility, as stated in the previous slide), Tejada is the option at shortstop. That leaves Justin Turner as the only option besides Murphy at second.

With Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Fernando Martinez, Nick Evans and Jason Bay all potentially filling roles in the outfield, Murphy will not be an option there. Murphy has to compete for a job at second base to be on the roster. There is little doubt he will be on the roster either way next year, health provided.

When comparing Turner with Murphy, the batting numbers are very different. Turner posted a .266 AVG (nearly 60 points lower than Murphy), four home runs (to Murphy's six), scored 47 runs (two fewer than Murphy) and 49 RBI (same as Murphy). The batting average is what stands out the most.

Fielding though, he has made seven errors at second in 74 games there, while Murphy has made two in 24 games at second. Murphy has a third of the errors in a third of the starts there. In other words, if projected to the same amount of starts, they are about even in fielding.

When that is considered, the only option is Murphy due to his ability to make contact. Murphy becomes the clear option for second base and for the second spot of the order.

David Will Get It Wright in 2012

Batting Third: David Wright (3B)

There is one candidate for the third spot in the lineup. That candidate is David Wright. The third spot is usually saved for the best overall hitter in the lineup. While who is on the Mets can be debated, one thing cannot be debated: Wright is a complete hitter when healthy.

In an injury-shortened season, Wright has hit 14 home runs with 57 RBI. He has a .263 AVG, which is primarily due to playing hurt for a month early in the season before going on the DL. He has shown in the past month, though, that he can carry the team when he gets hot. That is what a third-place hitter does.

His career batting average is .301 and his career slugging percentage is .510. He will start next season healthy and return to that form. I expect him to have a big year with the protection that the cleanup hitter will provide. With Murphy on base ahead of him, he should have ample opportunity to drive in runs and extend innings.

Wright is the face of the franchise and the best player they have (especially if Reyes departs for free agency). He is a former All-Star and Gold Glove winner. He is a leader on and off the field. He is not going anywhere.

He was placed on waivers last month by the Mets in an effort to see the interest from other teams. He was very quickly pulled back. That shows how much they want him around. They didn't even entertain an offer.

Wright is usually knocked for his lack of emotion, but he does show it when he needs to. He is not the type of player who will be a cornerstone, but with good pieces around him, he can and will be productive. He is used to the role of third hitter and embraces the challenge. He's the right man for that job.

Lucas Will Be the Dude in 2012

Batting Fourth: Lucas Duda (RF)

The Mets have been searching for a cleanup hitter since Carlos Delgado left. They tried to replace him with Jason Bay. That has not worked out as expected.

Little did the Mets know that they would be able to fill the void just two seasons later with a home grown option.

That option is Lucas Duda. In 98 games this season, Duda has 10 home runs and 49 RBI. He has a .466 slugging percentage to go with a respectable .272 AVG. That's all in just a little over a half of a season. These are numbers that would make him a candidate for rookie of the year, except he played 29 games in 2010 and therefore, is not considered a rookie by MLB standards.

Still, to hit that well in his first almost full season gives hope to the team and their fanbase. He can only get better as he establishes himself in the league. Duda is considered a gentle giant. He's a humble man of few words. He stands 6'4" and weighs 255 lbs.

He is an imposing threat standing in the batter's box, yet he is the exact opposite off the field. While he is a great teammate, by all accounts, it's his bat that will keep him in Queens for years to come. He has the strength to blast monstrous long balls out of the spacious Citi Field, and he can leg out doubles in that park as well.

To add to all of this, he is not too shabby on the field. He has committed one error in 40 games in right field and two at first base in 43 games. Not too bad for a man of his size. He has shown incredible agility and a great sense of knowing where he is on the field. If the Mets place him behind Wright, it will help Wright be a better hitter.

When they add Duda in front on the next man, he will see more fastballs and hit even better. He's the cleanup hitter the Mets system usually produces from time to time. He can be a special hitter. It will all depend on who hits behind him and how he adjusts to the league in his second full season.

Ike Davis Will Bounce Back To Make an Impact in 2012

Batting Fifth: Ike Davis (1B)

The presence of Lucas Duda helps David Wright, but the Mets need a power hitter to help offer protection in the lineup for Duda. Enter Ike Davis. His rookie season tallied 19 home runs and 71 RBI in 147 games.

He and the Mets were looking forward to him building on those numbers this season. A fluke ankle injury cut his sophomore season short after he started out with seven home runs with 25 RBI in 36 games started. He was on pace for a stud season.

Davis has shown the Mets that he can provide the thump they need behind Wright and Duda. He is a perfect fit in the five-spot. Though he hit .302 this season, his 31 strikeouts (nearly one per game) in his limited 2011 season is proof that he is not the contact hitter they need for the third-spot.

His pure power ability has great potential to pan out into either the cleanup role or the fifth spot, but with the emergence of Duda, Davis is perfect here. He could settle into this spot for the next decade, and like Duda, be a fixture in the Mets lineup for years to come.

Get Ready To Say Jay Bay in 2012

Batting Sixth: Jason Bay (LF)

Jason Bay has been one of the most debated players in his almost two years with the Mets. A nice guy off the field, he has been very bad on it. His first season, he came in with high expectations and was a huge disappointment. His six home runs and 47 RBI fell well short of the bar set for him by his massive contract.

This year has been a wake up call of sorts for the fans as much as it has for him. The expectations seem to have been lowered at this point of the season. With his poor performance over the past two seasons coupled with several key players returning to form and health, the pressure should be lessened, and Bay will be relegated to being counted on as a role player as opposed to a major offensive factor.

This will lead to a relaxed Jason Bay and a more productive season. He will get better pitches with a weaker part of the order behind him; he will be challenged and underestimated. Bay will then carry that success into his walk year in 2013.

Next year will be the beginning of the better second half of his four-year contract than the first. The team will look to him for veteran leadership in the clubhouse and on the field. They will look for him to continue to be an example. The players and coaches really like him.

He is a fixture in the dugout for at least the remainder of the contract. If he expects less of himself and gets comfortable being a role player, he will be a better fit for the team and will complement the younger players very well. 

Thole Will Grow into the Catcher the Mets Need in 2012

Batting Seventh: Josh Thole (C)

The New York Mets have had a long history of outstanding catchers. From Jerry Grote to Gary Carter to Todd Hundley to Mike Piazza, they have shown the knack of acquiring good offensive production from that position. Josh Thole was drafted and developed to be the next in that line.

So far, he has not panned out to expectations. In his third season (first as a full-time starter), Thole has amassed three home runs and 36 RBI in 107 games. That is the same amount of production as the first two seasons combined (90 games, three home runs and 26 RBI).

He is getting more comfortable in his attempts to adjust to the entire pitching staff. He calls a good game and plays fundamental defense behind the plate as evidenced by only two errors and a team ERA of 4.15.

He has gotten better as the season has progressed. Next season should show the Mets whether he is capable of being the long-term answer to that role or if they need to search elsewhere. Either way, his bat has potential to be effective in the seven hole, just in front of a weaker hitter (who will be named in the next slide).

He has spent this season adjusting to the defensive side of things and has grown as a player. If he spends next season expanding on his offense, he could be a mainstay in the lineup for years.  

Tejada Will Be Thrust into the Spotlight Next Year

Batting Eighth: Ruben Tejada (SS)

The New York Mets will have a major decision this upcoming offseason. They have to decide how aggressively they want to pursue Jose Reyes. If the reports from Jayson Stark (see slide No. 2) are correct, they may have to rely on a backup plan.

That plan: Ruben Tejada. That would offer some clarification for the Mets on how to use Daniel Murphy. Tejada would be the short stop. That leaves Justin Turner as Murphy's main competition at second base. 

It is most definitely agreed upon that the Mets are not deep in major league ready short stops. Tejada is really their only option at this point, unless they sign someone in the offseason to add to the dilemma. His glove is supposed to be solid, though eight errors in 39 games at that position this season may suggest otherwise.

His bat is the biggest question. Tejada is currently batting .279 with 32 RBI in 88 games this season. This is a big improvement on his rookie year (78 games, .213 AVG). The question is whether or not he can build on that and improve his offense for next year.

If he can, the Mets and their fans may not miss Jose Reyes as much as they currently think. With a healthy and effective F-Mart at the top and production out of the shortstop position, it will be a change in personnel, but change is needed to go into a direction of youth for the future of the ball club.

Tejada has the speed to get on base in the eighth hole in front of the pitcher's spot. That allows for sacrifice bunting opportunities to arise from the next spot in the order. If executed properly, that can turn the lineup over and allow for speed to be in scoring position for the top of the order.

That's the role of a good No. 8 hitter. Tejada could develop into that. 

Welcome Back, Johan Santana!

Batting Ninth: Johan Santana (SP)

The New York Mets have been missing an ace all year. They expected their ace to be Mike Pelfrey when Johan Santana went down last season. Unfortunately, Pelfrey has been less than stellar. Santana, however, is beginning to feel better and making strides for a complete comeback.

In his last full season, in 2010, Santana produced four extra base hits, including a home run. As a career .174 hitter (that's pretty good for a pitcher), he does a better job of laying down bunts to move players over than he does at coming up with a big hit.

He is not expected to produce the damaging blow from the plate. He's expected to deliver it from the mound. That's exactly what he will be able to do in 2012. He is on the road to recovery and an Opening Day start in his return to the Mets roster as their rightful ace.

In 2010, he posted a 2.98 ERA in 199 innings pitched while striking out 144 batters in 29 starts. He will look to regain that form in 2012. The fact that he is in this article says that I believe he will be healthy and ready to go by Spring Training.

What an incredible boost that would be to the Mets rotation. Having a healthy and effective Johan Santana from day one, will bring back some of the swagger and dominance the team had lacked this season. 

The 2012 Lineup Will Be Drastically Different but Competitive

In closing, when the New York Mets take the field next season, they will most likely look very different than they do right now. They will even look different from this past Opening Day. The big question is when Terry Collins hands in that very first lineup card of 2012, how effective will it be on the field?

We'll have to wait until next April to find that out. Until then, the team has a lot of decisions and assessments to make. Will they be able to re-sign Jose Reyes? Will they make any major trades? Will the younger players that missed significant time in 2011 make a healthy comeback in 2012?

The success of next year's team depends on the answers that will be revealed in the next few months. Only Sandy Alderson is in position to make the proper repairs to this roster that are needed to make them a contender once again.

Alderson has his hard hat on and the construction crew ready to go as soon as the season is over. The walls of Citi Field are not the only thing the Mets GM has to tear down and rebuild.

The Opening Day lineup for 2012 is officially under construction in a couple of weeks. 

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