Week 3 NFL Predictions: Matching Each 2-0 Squad with Similar Teams from Past

Probing for evidence in an NFL season still lacking in absolutes, I paired each of the seven remaining unbeaten NFL teams with another 2-0 team from the past five years.

My purpose? To help forecast what the rest of 2011 holds.

This bit of prediction, by way of review, reveals similarities in game results, personnel and organizational trajectory—elements that help to put early wins into the proper perspective.

For whom do the parallels augur well? And for whom does history cast a dark shadow?

Hint: History’s darkest shadow loves Rex Grossman.

The New York Jets Are...

The 2009 Baltimore Ravens

Coming off a bitter loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2008’s AFC Championship game, the Baltimore Ravens and young leader Joe Flacco readied themselves for another playoff run in 2009. That quest began auspiciously with a comfortable home victory over Kansas City in Week 1 and an impressive road win during Week 2 in San Diego.

Substitute the Jets for the Ravens, along with Mark Sanchez for Flacco, and you have a nice portrait of the 2011 Jets. Both teams feature(d) strong defenses—the Ravens finished third in yards allowed—and tend(ed) to ebb and flow with the play of their young quarterbacks.

What Happened?

The Ravens proved that 2008 was no fluke, sneaking into the playoffs at 9-7 before humbling the New England Patriots in a first-round road rout.

Most importantly, Flacco improved in almost every significant statistical category, graduating from game manager to offensive weapon. The Jets would love to see the same from Sanchez this year.

With better talent around him in New York than Flacco had in Baltimore during 2009, a similar advance from Sanchez could yield even greater things for Gang Green.

The Buffalo Bills Are...

The 2008 Buffalo Bills

Sorry Bills fans, but this year’s 2-0 Buffalo team reminds me of the last Buffalo team to start 2-0.

In 2008, the role of the overachieving, late-drafted quarterback from a brainy school was played by Stanford’s Trent Edwards. His steady performances led the team to a surprise rout over Seattle in Week 1 and a gutsy fourth-quarter comeback against Jacksonville the following Sunday.

This year, it’s Harvard-educated Ryan Fitzpatrick leading the comeback in Buffalo, and things look just as rosy. Fitzpatrick's heroics have Bills fans believing once again.

What happened?

The ‘08 Bills roared out to a 4-0 start before the wheels came off the wagon, the floorboard collapsed and the cab caught fire.

Trent Edwards averaged less than 200 passing yards per game for the season and Buffalo eventually slipped to 7-9.

There’s hope that the 2011 offense has more "go" than 2008’s zombie unit, but, at the very least, "hope" is once again a relevant word in Buffalo.

The Green Bay Packers Are...

The 2007 Indianapolis Colts

Coming off a Super Bowl win with a superstar quarterback at the height of his powers, the 2007 Indianapolis Colts showed no signs of slowing down. A closer-than-expected win against Tennessee turned a few heads in Week 2, but no major concerns surfaced surrounding Tony Dungy’s always-steady Colts.

In the past two weeks, the story in Green Bay has been much of the same.

The defending champs have let opponents stick around, showing something reminiscent of a Super Bowl hangover, but ultimately overwhelming foes with the blinding talent of their star signal caller. Aaron Rodgers isn’t Peyton Manning yet, but, much like Manning and the Colts circa ‘07, the Packers feel like heavy favorites in every game the Cali product starts.

What happened?

The Colts steamrolled to a 7-0 start, a 13-3 overall record and a first-round bye.

Close losses to the New England Patriots and San Diego Chargers constituted the only real blips in a fairly ferocious title defense. All of that came to a screeching halt, though, in a stunning divisional round loss to those same San Diego Chargers.

Postseason fate not withstanding, Packers fans should feel good about this comparison. The Packers already feel like a consistently dominant team, on par with the great Colts squads of the mid-2000s—even though they’re just two years removed from a 6-10 season.

Green Bay has gotten that good, that fast.

The Detroit Lions Are...

The 2006 San Diego Chargers

With LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates and Shawne Merriman all at the apex of their resplendent careers, the 2006 Chargers needed a centerpiece to coordinate all of that athletic fury.

So, San Diego turned to a touted young quarterback in his third NFL season, a talented player long overdue for his shot on the first string. Philip Rivers responded by leading the Bolts to 27-0 and 40-7 routs in the regular season’s first two weeks.

Now, no team’s back story truly fits the Detroit Lions’, largely because no team has been so bad for so long.

But in a lot of ways, looking at all the talent Detroit has on its roster, the maturation and continued health of Matthew Stafford mirrors Rivers’ ascent in San Diego. Also in his third professional season, Stafford headlined two impressive wins to start the season in Detroit with a flourish reminiscent of the Chargers’ sterling 2006 start.

What Happened?

The Chargers finished the season on a nine-game winning streak and posted a 14-2 record—the best mark in franchise history. A division-round exit against the New England Patriots put a damper on a breakthrough season, but one that nonetheless presaged a period of prolonged success for the franchise.

I’m not sure the Lions really stack up against those 2006 Chargers. For starters, a lot of San Diego’s core players had already played on top teams led by Drew Brees. Winning wasn’t new fare for these Chargers.

A less-flattering comparison for the Lions might be the 2008 Green Bay Packers, a team that also started 2-0 under first-year starter Aaron Rodgers before skidding to 6-10. Despite poor results and a few bad breaks, that Green Bay team showed flashes of the dominance to come. At the very least, we’ll see plenty of that from the 2011 Detroit Lions.

The tropes between the 2006 Chargers and the 2008 Packers are remarkably similar—as are the results—and I expect this year’s Lions squad to fall somewhere in the middle.

The New England Patriots Are...

The 2007 New England Patriots

At this point, only the New England Patriots compare with the New England Patriots.

After acquiring a troubled, free-agent star in Randy Moss, the 2007 Patriots rattled off back-to-back 38-14 wins and over 800 yards of total offense to start the year.

This year, the Patriots doubled up on their troubled free-agent acquisitions—Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth—and manged to actually improve their offensive output over the first two games. Belichick’s boys have already amassed over 900 yards and look closer to unstoppable than any team since that 2007 bunch.

What Happened?

I think you’ll recall that the Patriots finished the 2007 regular season undefeated, before Eli Manning, Michael Strahan and the peculiar physics of a football pinned against Tyree’s helmet brought their quest for perfection to a dramatic conclusion.

The Washington Redskins Are...

The 2007 Detroit Lions

No one wanted Jon Kitna. The veteran quarterback threw as many interceptions as touchdowns during his five-year run as a Cincinnati Bengal, and when Detroit signed him in 2006, the Lions simply needed a body to throw behind center from week to week.

In 2007, that equation changed, as Kitna led a resurgent Detroit team to a surprise romp in Week 1 over Oakland and a tightrope overtime victory in Week 2 against Minnesota.

The Washington Redskins picked Rex Grossman off the scrap heap in similar straits. Initially intended as a backup option and discontent with starter Donovan McNabb, the Redskins threw Grossman into a starting role, where he’s played surprisingly well since then.

Early results in 2011 continue to vindicate the former Bear, with a huge win over the division rival New York Giants in Week 1—giving the Redskins momentum-a-plenty.

What Happened?

Kitna kept the magic going through mid-season, staking the Lions to a 6-2 start that had fans and pundits hooked. Then, one day, Jon Kitna looked in the mirror, realized he was Jon Kitna, and proceeded to play the rest of the season as if he was, indeed, Jon Kitna.

Kitna threw 14 picks over the season’s final eight games—including a five-interception meltdown against San Diego—and the Lions limped to a 7-9 finish.

The Redskins hope Rex Grossman never has that man-in-the-mirror moment, and that his play continues to defy his track record.

For a best-possible scenario, they can turn to another NFC team that signed a forgotten Super Bowl quarterback: the 2008 Arizona Cardinals. In the Cardinals' case, however, their forgotten quarterback was former MVP Kurt Warner. That might be setting the bar a bit high for Rex.

The Houston Texans Are...

The 2008 Carolina Panthers

Same coach (John Fox), same quarterback (Jake Delhomme), same star wide receiver (Steve Smith)—the 2008 Carolina Panthers didn’t make many adjustments coming off of a pair of seasons that saw them go 8-8 and 7-9.

They just kind of hoped they would get better, which they did.

Two impressive wins, one on the road against San Diego and another at home against Chicago, signaled the return of a once-dormant organization.

Likewise, the Houston Texans have rolled out a fifth-straight season of Matt Schaub throwing passes to Andre Johnson under the direction of Gary Kubiak, despite that trio’s consistently mediocre output.

Two key differences between this year and past campaigns give the Texans two reasons for optimism: an improved defense under defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, and a weakened division missing its perennial bully, Indianapolis.

What happened?

The Panthers turned in one of the more surprising 12-4 seasons in recent memory, riding the halfback tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart to a first-round playoff bye. There, they fell victim to the Arizona Cardinals and the worst night of Jake Delhomme’s life (non-virginity-related, that is).

Not the best finish for the Panthers, but I think Houston would take a playoff appearance.