Andrea Bargnani vs. Dirk Nowitzki: How They Compare After 25 Years of Life

Andrea Bargnani is 25 years old, and many have already clamoured that he has peaked. Since he was drafted, he has always been compared to German forward Dirk Nowitzki. That being said, at 25 years of age, no one expects AB to turn into the new NBA Finals MVP. However, let us look at their statistics and compare to see just how different they are as players.

Before we analyze the numbers, it is evident that Bargnani has not turned out to be as great a rebounder as many had hoped. Even with his size, his terrible rebounding numbers are way too low. Even Dirk isn’t that great a rebounder because he gets so many of his boards on defense (roughly seven-plus a game for his career). So even if Bargnani could get more defensive rebounds, the naysayers would cool off a bit.

Here are Dirk’s numbers vs. AB’s:

Dirk Nowitzki:

Age	Year	FGM	FG%	3FG%	FT%	OREB	DREB	AST	STL	BLK	PPG	Min/GM
21	1999	2.9	40.5	20.6	77.3	0.9	2.6	1.0	0.6	0.6	8.2	20
22	2000	6.3	46.1	37.9	83.1	1.2	5.2	2.5	0.8	0.8	17.5	36
23	2001	7.2	47.4	38.7	83.8	1.5	7.7	2.1	1.0	1.2	21.8	38
24	2002	7.9	47.7	39.7	85.3	1.6	8.4	2.5	1.1	1.0	23.4	38
25	2003	8.6	46.3	38	88.1	1.0	8.9	3.0	1.4	1.0	25.1	39

Andrea Bargnani:

Age	Year	FGM	FG%	3FG%	FT%	OREB	DREB	AST	STL	BLK	PPG	Min/GM
21	2007	4.1	42.7	37.3	82.4	0.8	3.1	0.8	0.5	0.8	11.6
22	2008	3.6	38.6	34.5	84.0	0.6	3.1	1.1	0.3	0.5	10.2	23:53
23	2009	5.5	45.0	40.9	83.1	0.9	4.4	1.2	0.4	1.2	15.4	31:30
24	2010	6.7	47.0	37.2	77.4	1.3	4.9	1.2	0.3	1.4	17.2	35:00
25	2011	8.0	44.8	34.5	82.0	1.1	4.1	1.8	0.5	0.7	21.4	35:42

If you look at their statistics, Nowitzki has clearly outperformed Bargnani in every category (as expected). However, we must look deeper into the statistics to outline some trends.

Dirk has always played more minutes than Bargnani. If you alter their PPG from last season per 48 minutes, then it is Dirk: 30.88PPG/48 AB: 29PPG/48. Therefore, Bargnani's points per game have come close to Dirk at age 25.

The percentages throughout their careers have been somewhat similar. Dirk has always shot between 46-47 percent. Bargnani had a down year this past year, but it can be attributed to the fact that the Raptors were a terrible team and all of the defensive fronts focused on AB.

All of the other statistics (asts, stls, blks, offensive rebounds, turnovers, %’s) all seem to be quite similar (although Dirk averaged more than a steal per game while AB was at about 0.5), so where is the underlying difference?

The biggest difference, hands down, is defensive rebounds. Nowitzki averaged nearly double the defensive rebounds per game at the age of 25 (Dirk: 8.9 DREBS AB: 4.1 DREBS). This really needs to improve, but alas, there is another reason why this is the case.

Bargnani is playing centre. Nowitzki has always played power forward. The centre position is notorious for having excellent offensive rebounders (Howard, McGee, Wallace, Hibbert). Of the top 30 offensive rebounders in the NBA last season, 22 of them were centres. That being said, Bargnani has a much tougher chance at garnering as many defensive rebounds at the five than Dirk did at the four. Therefore, if Bargnani played the four, he would be in a better situation to succeed and grab more defensive rebounds. Read my previous article for more information about the Raptors situation at the four.

I am not saying that Bargnani would become a great rebounder with a position change, but it wouldn’t hurt!

So although the stats are clearly in Nowitzki’s favour across the board, the differences aren’t that overwhelming. Now we need to address the greatest factor that shows why these two five year careers are very different.

That factor is Steve Nash. Dirk Nowitzki came into the league and got to play with Steve Nash at the helm. Think of how much better Bargnani would be, to date, had he played his whole career with Nash. Nash always puts you in a position to succeed and drives the defense away from you so that you can catch and shoot. It is impossible to gauge his impact on a team, but he makes everyone around him better, much better… just look at Shawn Marion’s statistics once he left Nash.

Not only was Nash better than the Ford-Calderon mash-up, but there was continuity; Nash and Dirk remain close friends to this day. Nash and Dirk grew together and became dominant together. Oh, and we cannot forget Michael Finley, who averaged over 20 PPG during Nowitzki’s first five years in the league. So not only did Dirk have one of this generation’s best distributors of the ball, they also had an option on the wing that would net them 20 a game.

I would say that this is a MUCH better situation than the one AB has been in, in Toronto. If Dirk had Calderon and Bargnani had Nash, do you think the first five years of their respective careers would have been the same?

Don’t forget that the quality of the team ran farther than Nash and Finley. From 2000-2001 to 2002-2003 (Dirk years three to five), the Dallas Mavericks went 170- 76, whereas from 2008-2009 to 2010-2011 (AB years three to five), the Toronto Raptors went 95-151. This makes it much tougher for Bargnani to equal Nowitzki’s numbers based solely on the quality of the rest of the team.

After comparing Dirk and AB after their first five seasons in the league, the edge clearly goes towards Dirk. But we must remember these external factors (playing centre, Nash vs. Calderon, quality of the team around them) that play into Dirk becoming a dynamic player and AB looking lost.

Bargnani is still only 25 years old, and with a dynamic point guard and wing scorer, should be able to improve. He has had a lot of unfair pressure and expectations put on him because he was the No. 1 overall pick (Dirk was No. 9). Don’t give up on him yet!