Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs Victor Ortiz: 10 Things that Will Decide the Fight

Saturday, September 17, 2011, Floyd Mayweather Jr. returns to the boxing ring at the MGM Grand Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada, when he meets WBC welterweight champion, and current No. 2 ranked 147-pounder, Victor Ortiz.

It is "Money" Mayweather's first fight since his relatively unexciting, one-sided decision over Shane Mosley on May 1, 2010. Ortiz last fought on April 16 of this year, winning a thrilling unanimous decision, and his alphabet title, over Andre Berto in what is a front-runner for 2011 "Fight of the Year" Honors.

This fight has been greeted with mixed enthusiasm among boxing observers and sports fans in general. With the MGM Resorts opening line set at Mayweather -$750 and Ortiz +500, you know a lot of the smart money people expect another fairly one-sided victory for the Michigan native.

But a professional boxing match, like any form of combat sport, is a controlled chaos situation, anarchy with a few rules imposed as a formal nod to civility and sportsmanship. Shocking surprises emerge from such situations. 

Throw in a hungry and physically rugged young challenger who has overdosed on his own kool aid and we have at least the possibility of an historic night. Greater upsets have happened in this sport, though not recently.  

Bottom line: This is a fight and "anything can happen." A saying doesn't get to be a cliche without being true. 

The following list are the ten variables that have the greatest chance of influencing the outcome of this fight. 

Whether or Not Mayweather Is Looking Past Ortiz

The ghost of Manny Pacquiao has hung like Hamlet's old man over the entire build up to this fight. The Philippine welterweight and number one pound-for-pound boxer in the world is the only man that a high percentage of fans really want to see Mayweather fight. 

If everything goes as expected and Mayweather wins an easy victory Saturday night, the very first question he will be asked in the post-fight interview is probably going to be: "So are you finally going to fight Pacman?" 

It is unfair to Ortiz, who has worked hard to earn a fight like this, but to the casual fan he is seen as little more than "the guy Mayweather decided to fight instead of Manny." Even many knowledgeable boxing observers see Ortiz as somebody Mayweather selected as a warm-up opponent for Pacquiao—another less talented and experienced, southpaw to test out his footwork against before taking on the big prize.

But, in any sport, at any level, looking past an underdog opponent can spell disaster. In no sport is this more true than boxing. When you are talking about standing in front of another man and trying to punch each other, being more fully "in the moment" can be a decisive advantage.  

How Well Ortiz Handles the Big Moment

While Mayweather's challenge is to resist looking ahead and to stay focused on the "here and now," Ortiz's biggest mental challenge is perhaps more daunting. He must adjust himself to a "here and now" that he has never known before: The glaring spotlight of a major Las Vegas pay-per-view prizefight, against a truly elite and singularly talented opponent. 

Just based on what I have seen from Ortiz during the HBO 24/7 program, it is tough for me to imagine him getting a "deer in the headlights" look. But, Saturday night he will be swimming in unfamiliar waters, and that is a factor that could decide his performance. 

How Ortiz Handles His out of Ring Distractions

Floyd Mayweather Jr.'s life appears to have been a soap opera with many plot lines for as long as he's been fighting. None of it has ever prevented him from being 100 percent focused and ring ready.

He's one of the sport's only true superstars, and it's a role he embraces fully. And it's never hurt his game.

He returned after a nearly two year lay off and an embarrassing clown show in the WWE and proceeded to shut out all-time great Juan Manuel Marquez.

But Floyd's more recent distractions have been a whole lot less fun than headlining with Big Show and hanging out with the Kardashian girls. And he's older, too (34). He's almost legally old enough to be president. Like the old Bob Seger song says, a man comes to a point in his life when it starts to tire him out to always be running "against the wind."  

I have to say, though, that the Mayweather we have been seeing on the 24/7 show, despite looking like a moron when pretending to use a stack of $100 bills to talk on the phone to his good pal, Fifty Cent, has appeared mentally and physically focused on preparing for another great fight. 

How Well Mayweather Can Shake off Ring Rust Against a Young, Aggressive Fighter

Saturday night's bout will make just the third fight for Floyd Mayweather Jr. in the last 45 months. Historically, ring rust has not been a problem for Mayweather. He returned from a 21 month lay off in September of 2009 to win a shut out decision against pound-for-pound contender and Ring lightweight champion Juan Manuel Marquez. 

But that was two years ago, and during the intervening 24 months Mayweather has fought just once, against the clearly past-his-prime Shane Mosley. For Mayweather, now 34, facing the determined young Ortiz, 24, will be an entirely different affair. 

While I would rate Marquez ahead of Ortiz in terms of pound-for-pound, I give the younger, larger Ortiz much more of a chance to make a competitive fight. 

In this age of Sergio Martinez and Anderson Silva, not to mention Bernard Hopkins and Randy Couture, fans have come to think of 34 as still relatively young for a fighter. Traditionally, it is not. Fighters at that age historically begin to lose a little bit off from their speed and reflexes.

Mayweather maintains near peak condition year round and has been absorbing boxing knowledge literally since he was in diapers, so he would seem perfectly set up to age gracefully as an athlete. But the first thing many will be looking for on Saturday night is any small hints that Mayweather has lost something during his partially retired 30's.    

Whether or Not Mayweather Can Throw Enough Punches

Floyd Mayweather Jr. is an extremely quick and accurate puncher with more power than the casual fan often gives him credit for. But, he has a history of hand problems, and, as his career has gone on, he has shown increasing reluctance to unload with multiple punch flurries. Against a pressure fighter like Ortiz, this might cause him problems.

Mayweather's footwork is so good that he often finds himself in attacking positions that most fighters would never get into. He has been able to pile up scoring, and even completely break opponents down during fights, simply by throwing one or two extremely accurate punches at a time.

This strategy could be dangerous for Mayweather against a fighter like Ortiz, who is willing to take shots and keep coming forward aggressively. Ortiz will still have to land his own punches, of course, which is always easier said than done against Pretty Boy Floyd.

The longer Mayweather allows him to hang around, the more opportunities he gets to roll those dice.

How Well Mayweather Can Handle a Southpaw

Veteran trainer Joe Goossen is quoted in the current issue of The Ring as asserting that Ortiz can give Mayweather trouble: "He's a big, powerful and quick-handed southpaw. That's a combination that will trouble any fighter, including Mayweather."

Indeed, the "southpaw element" will always be among the most talked about factors of any fight involving a left handed fighter.

Mayweather has fought six southpaws in his career, and some of his dicier moments have come against lefties. DeMarcus Corley managed to rock Mayweather, although with a right hand, in the fourth round of an otherwise one-sided unanimous decision. Zab Judah gave Mayweather four competitive rounds before Mayweather clobbered him down the stretch.

There can be no question that Ortiz's left-handed stance improves his odds of catching Mayweather with a damaging punch.  

Who Can Control the Footwork

In order for Mayweather to efficiently handle Ortiz's southpaw stance he will need to circle out and away from Ortiz's left hand, looking to punish the younger fighter with counter punching. If he can do this, he will be able to frustrate and parry Ortiz all night, forcing him to miss and then stinging him in return. 

Ortiz, by contrast, will need to keep his front right foot outside of Mayweather's lead left, looking to cut off the ring and trap Ortiz along the ropes, where he can look to unload with fight-changing power shots. 

A lot of people believe Jose Luis Castillo won his first encounter with Mayweather by using a pressure style and excellent footwork to cut off the ring on Mayweather. The pressure-fighting southpaw, Ortiz, would seem as likely as anybody not named Manny Pacquiao of duplicating that blue print. 

Whether or Not Ortiz Can Establish an Effective Jab

Ortiz has often won without relying much on his jab, instead stalking his opponents and throwing power shots off from counters. But, if he lets himself get drawn into a counter-punching war against Mayweather, he is going to lose every exchange, all night long. 

To implement the kind of footwork he needs to use and to fully capitalize on any edge he might derive from being a southpaw, Ortiz is going to have to find a way to establish a stiff and active jab against Mayweather.

Whether or Not Ortiz Can Hit Mayweather in the Body

Victor Ortiz is going to need to pressure and bully Floyd Mayweather Jr. if he wants to win. That means hitting him in the body. 

This slide is really a continuation of the previous three. In order to get close enough to hit Mayweather in the body he is going to have to use his jab to close distance and his footwork to cut off the ring and take away Mayweather's space to retreat. 

In broad strokes, it is not really a complicated game plan. If Ortiz can implement it, he has a chance to make history. 

Whether or Not Ortiz Can Capitalize If He Hurts Mayweather

In his last fight, Shane Mosley demonstrated to the world that it was possible to hurt Floyd Mayweather Jr.

However, as that fight also clearly demonstrated, hurting Mayweather and actually capitalizing on it are two completely different things. Mayweather used his superior defensive skills, razor sharp reflexes and well honed instincts to cruise fairly smoothly out of trouble and retake control of the fight in the very next round.

It won't be that easy if he gets rocked against Ortiz. If Ortiz manages to hurt Mayweather, he will be the proverbial shark smelling blood.

When the 38-year-old Mosley was unable to take advantage of his opportunity against Mayweather, he was more or less shot for the rest of the fight. If Ortiz has a similar exchange with Mayweather, expect him to come out of it hungry for more.

Ultimately, it is exactly this very live possibility of  a "puncher's chance" that will have boxing fans turning in on Saturday night.