NFL Picks Week 2: Point Spreads Vegas Got Wrong

You can’t blame Vegas.

The betting lines they offer are based off what the public is betting on. If one side of the bet is getting too much action, the line shifts.

Essentially, you can take advantage of the stupidity of America. Scanning the lines in Week 2, there are two point totals that jump off the page.

Here’s your chance to outsmart America with these picks:

(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com)           

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets O/U: 39.5

Just glancing at the total and you’d probably think the line was about right.

Both teams rely on a strong running game and defense to get by. Yet there are certain trends that are impossible to ignore:

Over is 5-0 in Jaguars last five games following a S.U. win.

Over is 8-1 in Jaguars last nine road games.

Over is 8-1 in Jaguars last nine games as a road underdog.

Over is 19-7 in Jets last 26 games overall.

Over is 8-3 in Jets last 11 games as a favorite.

QB Mark Sanchez is finally becoming a pocket passer that can spread the field and the Jets are more than capable of securing a special teams or defensive TD. Assuming the Jags muster two TDs…the over is an easy bet.

Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Redskins O/U: 44.5

This just in: the Redskins are going to have one of the top defenses in the league.

They have a terrific back seven filled with speed and great tacklers. They’re a solid mix of young players and vets that balance everything out.

The Cardinals gave up a couple of long plays, but they did a decent job around the red zone and kept the Panthers out of pay dirt with the game on the line.

A week after these two teams got into shootouts, expect them to hit the under this week.

Trends:

Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

Under is 7-0 in Redskins last seven games as a home favorite.

Under is 10-2-1 in Redskins last 13 games as a favorite.