Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: 5 Reasons Why He Has No Chance to Win the NASCAR Sprint Cup

After clawing his way into the Chase at Richmond for the first time in four seasons, Dale Earnhardt, Jr.’s prospects for postseason success are almost nonexistent. 

This is not to say that Junior has not had a great season thus far.  

Yet 2011 has the feeling of a building-block year with new crew chief Steve Letarte.  It is somewhat akin to an NFL wild-card team that slides into the playoffs after years of turmoil, only to get trounced in the first game without putting up much of a fight.

While Dale Jr. will not necessarily get trounced through the course of the Chase, his prospects of actually lifting the trophy are quite low, if not nil. 

Any fan should consider a final finish within the top five of the Sprint Cup Chase an overwhelming success.

Here is the evidence.

Lack of Consistency

While he has enjoyed some solid streaks during the season, including three top 10 finishes in a row, he also found himself out of the top 10 for the final five consecutive races of 2011.  

During the middle of the season he was out of the top 10 for six straight races.

Consistency is paramount in a 12-race program. 

Anyone can have a bad race—maybe two—but to enter the Chase starting 12 points down and lacking consistency is a death knell.

He Is Only the 3rd Best on His OWN Team

Hendrick Motorsports has an unarguably gifted stable of race car drivers.

Barring cataclysmic disaster, Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson will most definitely finish ahead of Dale Jr. in points when the last checkered flag flies at Homestead Miami. 

Both have been strong for the vast majority of the season compared to Junior’s extended spurts of mediocrity. 

This slide photo is not meant to mock Dale Earnhardt, Jr.'s accomplishments over the season, but it is representative: it is the closest he will get to the Sprint Cup trophy this year.

Body Language

He does not look confident.  He appears more content just to have made it back to the Chase.  Of course, he says that he wants to win, but saying it and believing it are completely different.

This quote, after the Richmond regular season finale, is the most telling of his outlook:

“I'm proud to be in the Chase. I feel like I'm a good enough driver to be in the Chase—my team is good enough to be there." 

Translation:  I feel that I am a competent driver with a decent team, but do not expect anything special from us after this race. 

That is simply not the requisite confidence needed for a driver to win NASCAR’s biggest prize.

He Loses to Chase Drivers Even When at His Best in 2011

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has a fairly solid resume at the regular season tracks in which he will get a second chance during the Chase:

Second Place: Martinsville and Kansas

Top 10: Charlotte, Texas, Phoenix and Talladega

Top 15: Dover and Loudon

This is solid, but what is consistent among these races is that a Chase driver won ALL of these races.  He is always behind the curve of the top drivers.  Just to be clear, this a list of the winners at the aforementioned tracks:

Martinsville and Charlotte: Kevin Harvick

Texas and Dover: Matt Kenseth

Kansas: Brad Keselowski

Loudon: Ryan Newman

Phoenix: Jeff Gordon

Talladega: Jimmie Johnson (though Junior did push Johnson to the win)

The Quality of the Competition

More than a handful of drivers look poised this year; Dale Junior looks the least poised, save for perhaps Tony Stewart.

The numbers speak for themselves: one pole and no wins.  The pole that he did win at the Daytona 500 was erased, and he had to go to the back of the pack.

His car is pictured here at the start of that race.  He is starting the Chase just as he began the season: last place.