NFL Picks against the Spread, Week 2: Where's the Smart Money Going?

The 2011 National Football League regular season is underway, and the betting markets have changed dramatically in just a single round of games.

Oddsmakers were inclined to send out three teams as double-digit favorites, including the Green Bay Packers on the road—something that didn't happen the entire 2010 campaign.

Smart money is focused on finding overly-inflated lines based on public perception after just a week of action.

Let's take a look at all 16 games and find out if smart money is involved.

Chicago at New Orleans (-6.5)

Lose on Thursday night and everyone forgets about you over the weekend.

Smart money joined in the parade of getting down on the Chicago Bears as seven-point underdogs initially, enabling the line to drop by a half point.

That's when the major move came in—playing the New Orleans Saints at the magic number of 6.5.

Casual bettors will see that the Bears have won four straight meetings, but sharps notice who ended up winning the statistical battle.

Also, all of those aforementioned meetings occurred in the Windy City.

The big money is expecting the Saints to improve upon their 14-5 ATS mark following a straight-up loss, while the Bears are 8-22 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.

Kansas City at Detroit (-9)

Worst Performance in Week 1 Award definitely went to the Kansas City Chiefs, as everyone was expecting the Indianapolis Colts to struggle without quarterback Peyton Manning.

Nobody should lose to the Buffalo Bills at home by 34 points—unless Hall of Fame inductees Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas are back in the fold.

Sharp money initially got involved on the Chiefs as 8.5-point road underdogs due to the Lions' public perception being at levels not seen since Barry Sanders was in the backfield.

The loss of safety Eric Berry is seen as a huge blow in the secondary, especially when matching up with one of the top passing offenses in the league this week.

Too tough to call at this point, but the Lions 19-37 ATS record as favorites will draw some underdog bettors at any price.

Jacksonville at New York Jets (-9)

Smart money immediately took the Jacksonville Jaguars (+10) off the board at some of the sharper books around, but some of the softer books are offering a higher number with inflated juice.

It's safe to say that the value was on the underdog at that point, as the New York Jets were double-digit favorites just once last year, registering a 26-10 home win over the deflated Cincinnati Bengals.

After looking at the line and finding that the home team will be on the road for three consecutive weeks after this contest, smart bettors may elect to lay the points in the end.

Oakland at Buffalo (-3.5)

The Buffalo Bills win a game by 34 points, and all of a sudden, they are going to be in Indianapolis for the Super Bowl.

Not so fast.

Smart money immediately grabbed the Oakland Raiders as four-point underdogs, as most professional bettors were actually impressed with the Silver and Black on Monday night. 

Not many teams can commit 50 penalties and win a game versus a division rival.

Buffalo was sent out as a favorite just three times in 2010, posting a 2-1 ATS mark in those contests, but one of those covered the number by the slimmest of margins.

A blowout road win as an underdog and the biggest look-ahead game of the year on deck is always going to entice smart money to go the other way.

Arizona at Washington (-4)

Smart money is never going to back a team that hasn't played as a home favorite since the 2009 season.

Another advantage for the Arizona Cardinals is the fact that quarterback Kevin Kolb is familiar with the NFC East division due to his time in Philadelphia.

Could be the biggest score of the weekend.

Baltimore (-5.5) at Tennessee

The only reason the Baltimore Ravens didn't move from six-point road favorites to a touchdown is why I'm writing this slideshow.

Smart money.

They didn't even bother driving up the line to the magical number of seven, feeling confident that the plus-seven in turnover differential Ravens will suffer a major letdown.

Coming off a game against the Steelers is never an easy task the following week, as NFL teams are 22-39 ATS the following week.

Watch out.

Seattle at Pittsburgh (-14.5)

Smart money quickly grabbed the Pittsburgh Steelers (-13.5) at the opening number and went away from this game in a hurry.

A double-digit point spread in Week 2 isn't going to make this one of the more attractive games to wager on Sunday.

Let's move on.

Green Bay (-9.5) at Carolina

One of the more interesting market movers since the Green Bay Packers were released as 10.5-point road favorites Sunday night.

The linesmakers were definitely aware of Cam Newton's exploits in Week 1 but also know that the Packers are perceived to be the easiest bet—outside of the New England Patriots in the NFL.

Smart money is definitely on the underdog, but not to the extent that makes it worth following.

Tampa Bay at Minnesota (-3)

This is one of those situations that the linesmaker is going to entice smart action on the Minnesota Vikings. 

Las Vegas knows that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 7-0 ATS as a road underdog last year.  It's one of those trends that doesn't get lost in the desert.

Realistically, Tampa Bay could have been sent out as a one-point road favorite based on public perception, and people still would have made the wager.

One of those situations that the book is going to keep this line at three points until it ABSOLUTELY has to move it.

Minnesota is definitely a smart-money play.

Cleveland (-1.5) at Indianapolis

Take a quick look at the handicapper line that I published for this game and it tells you everything you need to know.

Cleveland has dropped by 1.5 points since the line was released.

Beware—virtually all value is gone at this point.

Dallas (-3) at San Francisco

The Dallas Cowboys were a one-yard fumble away from scoring the straight-up road underdog victory over the New York Jets.

Smart money is waiting on the sidelines to see if oddsmakers move this line off one of the key numbers in football.

America's team always draws a crowd at the betting windows but don't be surprised if some sharp bettors place some money on the silver-starred helmets early in the week.

In my opinion, one of the sharpest lines of the week.

Houston (-3) at Miami

One of the few lines that I'd ask bettors to step away from for a minute and analyze what the oddsmaker is doing.

The Miami Dolphins kicked off as seven-point home underdogs against the New England Patriots, which is certainly no surprise.

Houston travels on the road for the first time this season and is already laying a key number.

Would you lay money on a team that has never covered back-to-back games as favorites in franchise history?

Smart money wouldn't either.

San Diego at New England (-7)

This matchup is one of the marquee games in Week 2 but isn't getting bet like it yet due to New England playing on Monday night.

Oddsmakers have also pulled a fast one by sending out the Patriots as seven-point home favorites.  A key number that will likely remain for at least another day.

Too many other options attracting smart money on the board at this time.

Cincinnati at Denver (-4.5)

Smart money flowed directly into the Cincinnati Bengals as six-point road underdogs that it took less than a minute to move the line.

After a furious 90 minutes of receiving consistent underdog action, the line has settled in at its current spot.

Now that the best number is off the board—sharps could pull a fast one and elect to take the Broncos if it drops even further.

After all, if Week 1's results would have turned out differently for each side, Denver would have likely been sent out as a full touchdown favorite.

Stay tuned.

Philadelphia (-2.5) at Atlanta

In the land of public perception, linesmakers dropped an incredibly sharp line on this contest.

It's no secret that bettors love Sunday Night prime-time matchups that offer numbers that make either side enticing to wager on.

Another one of these situations that may entice smart bettors to actual lay the Philadelphia Eagles as a road favorite against last year's No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs.

From what I can see, smart money was more interested in playing the under at 50.5, which has made it drop a full point in most places.

In my opinion, a very smart decision.

St. Louis at New York Giants (-5.5)

Too many potential injury questions in this early season matchup, as the line was just released Tuesday night at around 9:30 p.m. ET.

A wait-and-see approach.