Green Bay Packers-New Orleans Saints Preview

In my picks for the week, I had this game a toss-up even though the Saints are favoured by two-and-a-half points. Rather than flipping a coin, I gave it to the Saints because I had already picked eight road teams to only seven home teams.

Now that I have looked at the match-up in more detail, I cannot believe the Saints are favoured: on paper, this does not look all that close. That being said, there are things to consider that do not appear on the stat sheet.

For instance, New Orleans has missed time with Reggie Bush, who is expected to return for this game. Conversely, most of the Packers players who are now active but have missed time are in the secondary, where the stats are great anyway. However, about half of the season so far featured defensive end Cullen Jenkins and all but last week featured linebacker Nick Barnett, both of whom are out for the rest of the season.

In addition, looking at special teams, offensive and defensive rankings does not consider things like turnovers and points. The Packers are +7 and the Saints -5 in the turnover ratio department, and the Packers have a league leading seven defensive touchdowns that contributes to the 27.4 point average that is fourth in the league. Defensively, the Packers give up 20.9, 12th in the NFL; the Saints score 26.6 (6th) and yield 24.9 (24th).

In other words, I would say the disadvantageous injury status of Green Bay is more than modified by the turnover and scoring advantages, as well as the more difficult schedule to date (.520 vs. .480). Here is a look at each unit match-up:

Packers passing attack vs. Saints pass defense: huge advantage for Green Bay

The Packers pass for 222 yards a game, 11th in the league; New Orleans yields 235.2 yards a game, which ranks 26th. Aaron Rodgers will have time to pass and targets to hit.

Packers rushing attack vs. Saints run defense: toss-up

Both units are ranked 19th in the league, with the Packers averaging 108.3 per contest and the Saints giving up 111 per game. Ryan Grant has been hitting the same second half stride he did last season, with his only three 100-yard games coming in the last four weeks; he should get that again if the Packers have a lead in the fourth quarter.

Saints passing attack vs. Packers pass defense: toss-up

Drew Brees is my pick for MVP thus far because he does not have quite as much receiving talent that Kurt Warner does. Without Brees, the Saints would not be competitive in this tough division; the Cardinals could probably still win the weak NFC West with Matt Leinart. Moreover, the Saints have the league's top-ranked passing attack with a whopping 319.7 yards per game.

However, the Packers are one of maybe three defenses New Orleans does not have an edge in the passing game against. The Packers not only rank 3rd against the pass, but force turnovers and have a healthy backfield for only the fourth game this season. Brees will be the season's best test for this unit, but I believe the only way the Saints pass for 300 yards is if they get a little garbage yardage.

Saints rushing attack vs. Packers rush defense: slight edge to New Orleans

The Saints are ranked 28th running the ball (91.8/game) and the Packers ranked 27th against the run (147.4 per game), seemingly an extremely slight advantage to Green Bay. And I do think the Saints will not get much more than 100 yards on the ground, but only because they will be playing from behind late and not wear down the Packers defense.

However, as previously mentioned, there are reasons to believe the Packers run defense could be even worse than it is on paper; likewise, there are reasons to think the Saints rushing attack may not be quite as bad as it appears. They have a thunder-and-lightning combination in Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush that will keep the Packers defense working, and if the game is close enough, it will wear down late.

Special Teams: edge to New Orleans

Despite less stability in the kicker and punter, the Saints have a slight edge there. Both teams have missed the same number of field goals, although the Saints have attempted more. New Orleans is averaging 9.7 more net punting yards than their opponents compared to the Packers 5.2 yard advantage. The Saints average 1.3 fewer yards per kick return than their opponents, but the Packers average 2.3 fewer yards per return.

Both the Packers and Saints have two punt touchdown returns against the Minnesota Vikings, whose punt coverage is so bad those scores are not that impressive. However, the Packers had one more game against Minnesota to benefit from, and the Saints have one legitimate touchdown return against the rest of the league; the Packers do not.

Prediction: 35-31 Green Bay

Even with homefield advantage I don't see this one going New Orleans' way. In fact, I really think this score will not be a bit misleading because it will include a late score.

So far, I have a 7-3 record on Packers games, predicting one loss that did not happen (Colts) and two wins that did not materialize (Buccaneers, Falcons).