College Football Predictions Week 3: LSU Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs

The No. 3 LSU Tigers (2-0) and No. 25 Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-1) are set to face off Thursday night in front of a nationally-televised audience on ESPN.  Kickoff from Starksville, MS, is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET inside Davis-Wade Stadium.

It's a series that has been entirely one-sided recently, as LSU will be looking to win its 12th straight contest against Mississippi State.

The Tigers opened up as 4.5-point road favorites but have since been bet down a full point at most places, while the total stands at 48.5.

Let's take a look at five things that will ultimately determine Thursday's against-the-spread winner.

Chris Relf, Mississippi State QB

Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Chris Relf was shaken up in more ways than one in last year's 29-7 defeat at Tiger Stadium as 7.5-point road underdogs.

The senior completed 5-of-8 passes for 35 yards but threw two interceptions that contributed to the team's five total turnovers.

He leads the team with 40 rushes but will have to complete some passes downfield, allowing the offensive line an opportunity to open up holes against the conference's top rushing defense.

The Bulldogs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games in this series.

Turnover Battle

It's no secret that Les Miles wants his aggressive defense to create turnovers, and it has led to a lot of victories in six-plus seasons in Baton Rouge.

The Tigers have proven victorious in 11 consecutive contests when winning the turnover battle, while also going 27-4 when forcing more opponents' miscues than they commit.

LSU won last year's turnover battle against Mississippi State by a 5-1 margin and comes in with a plus-three differential through two games this season.

The Tigers are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings against the Bulldogs.

Vick Ballard, Mississippi St RB

Mississippi State leads the SEC in averaging 321 rushing yards a game and has ran for more than 200 yards in 10 of its past 11 games overall extending back to last year.

Senior running back Vick Ballard comes in with a team-leading 301 rushing yards but was limited to just 28 yards on 11 carries in last year's meeting against the Tigers.

It will be tough sledding against an LSU defense that limited Oregon to just 95 rushing yards in the season opener at Cowboys Stadium.

The Bulldogs are 8-3 ATS after gaining more than 200 yards rushing in their prior contest.

Jarrett Lee, LSU QB

LSU Tigers quarterback Jarrett Lee has completed 19-of-32 passes for 231 yards and two touchdowns this year but is still just 7-4 as a starter.

Miles will never truly be comfortable with him under center and has another option emerging with transfer Zach Mettenberger making some noise on campus.

He's still the best option for an SEC road opener—not throwing an interception in 105 straight passes entering Thursday night.

Bettors will find that the Tigers are 21-15 ATS as a road favorite.

LSU's Record in Night Games

It's well-documented but can't be ignored.

The LSU Tigers are 46-4 straight-up in night games under Miles.  It's such a dominating statistic due to the program's 18-13 record during his tenure when playing during the day.

One of those contests was a 45-0 victory against Mississippi State in Starksville to open up the 2007 campaign as 19-point road favorites.

That game also served as the first non-holiday Thursday night game in school history.

On the other side, Mississippi State is 6-9 ATS when playing on Thursday in its last 15 opportunities.