Michael Jordan: NBA All-Time Points Leader If He Hadn't Retired Early?

With the lockout still ongoing the lack of actual substance to write about leaves us extra times to consider things we wouldn’t have time for if there actual news beyond Derek Fisher playing in Los Vegas. So today, I got to wondering, what would have happened if Michael Jordan had never retired? Would he be the all-time leading scorer now?

So I took out my trusty laptop, opened up my excel spreadsheet and got to some number crunching. The first thing to consider is what is a reasonable “non-retirement career.” It’s doubtful if he had played to the age of 37 or 38 he would have had the Wizard years, so in the considerations the first thing we have to do before adding numbers is subtract some.

So first, let’s look at what his career numbers were before he played with Washington. 

PTS	TRB	AST	STL	BLK
29,277	5,836	5,836	5,012	828

The next thing we need to do is estimate what would have happened had he never retired the first time. Assuming 80 games per season in the two seasons that were affected by his retirement, it is safe to assume, based on career averages to that point, the following totals being added to his numbers. 

Span	PTS	TRB	AST	STL	BLK
Chicago Totals	29,277	5,836	5,836	2,306	828
No 1st Retirement	4,618	905	844	494	147
Total	33,895	6,741	6,680	2,800	975

That gives him 1600 more points than he presently had but it’s still not quite enough to put him as the NBA’s all-time leading scorer.

Here is how he would sit.

Player	Points	Difference
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	38,387	4,492
Karl Malone	36,928	3,033
Michael Jordan	33,895	NA

So now we have to wonder if he hadn’t retired initially and added a couple of years on to his career. He was still playing at an MVP level when he retired, and when he returned at 39 he was still a very good player.

I took his 34 year old season and deducted 10 percent for a gradual rate of decline for three successive years. These would be his projected totals if he played to 37.

Age	PTS	TRB	AST	STL	BLK
35	2,287	470	385	199	55
36	2,058	423	347	179	49
37	1,852	381	312	161	44
Total	6,197	1,273	1,044	539	149

Adding those totals to the other totals we come up with the following projections.

	PTS	TRB	AST	STL	BLK
Chicago Totals	29277	5836	5836	2306	828
93-94 projections	4618	905	844	494	147
98-00 Projections	6197	1273	1044	539	149
Totals	40,093	8,014	7,724	3,339	1,123

As you can see if he had not retired initially and just played to the age of 37, he could have comfortably been the all-time points leader. He also would have had enough steals to pass John Stockton as the all-time leader in that department. Furthermore, he would be 10 all-time assists and have the most of anyone who was not a point-guard.

Additionally, he would have 8014 total rebounds, and would have retired as the all-time leader among guards in that department, though Jason Kidd would have passed him this year. He is already the all-time leader in blocked shots for a guard.

We will never know if he would win more rings, but it’s not a stretch to figure that with him retiring as a defending NBA Champion twice, he very well could have won one or two more conservatively.

That’s just a snapshot of what could have been since we have nothing that is to talk about.