January Hits San Antonio Early: Can the Spurs Stop a Fatal Skid?
The team that has spent this decade devouring opponents with superior intelligence may have finally outsmarted itself.
Here lies the San Antonio Spurs, an injury-plagued pile of wreckage awaiting the return and rescue of two All-stars, holding out hope that acumen once again trumps athleticism and adolescence in the win column.
There are as many reasons to believe this South Texas paladin can hang another banner in the AT&T Center rafters, despite sporting the NBA’s oldest roster, as there are ones why it will fall out of title contention.
Crippled by foot injuries to should-be Hall of Famers Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, both of whom could return before December, the Spurs are stomaching an early version of the January skid that has hallmarked their years of perennial contention.
And if they hope to reclaim the NBA’s highest throne and enjoy another parade down the Riverwalk, they’d better hope this is it.
The Good—Defense
The Spurs don’t beat teams. They tear them into thousands of psychological shards and then throw what’s left of the mess into a bottomless well. Since the youthful Miami Heat spanked them at home 98-83 two weeks ago, signs of life and hope have returned.
The suffocating defense that has made so many teams feel like they just slammed into a haywire meat grinder is still as sharp as ever.
The sinking offense without Parker and Ginobili, and at times with them, will sometimes negate the team’s ability to stop opponents. At many junctures, the Spurs will stop themselves. But, since defense wins championships, if this team of supposed old timers can keep up the smother, it will have a chance to win the fifth championship of the Tim Duncan era.
Since Parker came down awkwardly on his ankle against the Heat, and Dwyane Wade’s brilliance made them look like the least talented bunch in the league, the Spurs are allowing opponents just 86 points per game on 42 percent shooting.
They also sit at 5-6, just a game below .500, better than most expected for a team relying on Roger Mason, George Hill, Ime Udoka, Anthony Tolliver, and Matt Bonner to pick up the scoring slack. Who, who, who, who and who?
Take for example the final possession of a close affair against the Houston Rockets last Friday in San Antonio.
With the Rockets 14-point lead evaporated, and a collapse imminent, sophomore speedster Aaron Brooks drove to the hoop and thought he could redeem Houston’s horrid fourth quarter with a game-winning lay-up. Instead, he met Tim Duncan at the rim, and the greatest to ever play at his position promptly swatted away Brooks’ shot.
Duncan’s defensive position on the play was impeccable, and more importantly, he kept the ball in play, which forced the Rockets to foul Roger Mason. The fifth-year hybrid guard missed one free throw, offering the Rockets a glimmer of hope.
The Spurs stifling defense forced Ron Artest into an off-balance, fade-away three pointer. He was open enough, but given his well-document shooting struggles in Houston, giving him some space from that angle was the right move.
It’s smart defensive plays like these that have defined the Spurs approach to winning. While most pedestrian fans hunger for spectacular swats into the third row, the result of those two plays is what wins that coveted gold trophy.
Or, maybe the final period in Sacramento last Sunday offers a better example. John Salmons had sliced through the Spurs defense for three quarters, driving to the rim, nailing perimeter shots and drawing fouls.
He finished with a spectacular 30-plus point night, but scored only five in the deciding quarter. Mason and Bruce Bowen took turns bottling up the Kings’ premier weapon with Kevin Martin on the shelf, and Salmons could not deliver. Salmons missed two potential game-tying shots that were well defended.
Yes, the Spurs scraped by a probable lottery team, and leaned on Duncan for a game-winner, but there will be a lot of that with Ginobili and Parker in street clothes.
The Bad—Offensive Offense
The same hideous scoring droughts that wrecked the Spurs hopes at the franchise’s first repeat—a five point first quarter at the AT&T Center last season against the Atlanta Hawks comes to mind—will be a greater issue in the next eight to 10 games that two-thirds of the team’s star trio sits.
Even when Ginobili and Parker return, there are no guarantees that this roster has enough firepower to escape the rugged Western Conference.
In that game against the Kings, the Spurs blew an 11-point advantage that set up the drama-packed finish. Most would-be champions would prefer to avoid one-possession games against lottery-bound squads. The Spurs asked Duncan to hit the clinching shots in the Rockets and Kings games and he delivered.
A few nights earlier against the Bucks, a team with a surprising winning mark against the Spurs, Duncan missed a six-foot hook that would have secured the victory. Instead the Spurs lost 78-82.
There will be a lot of close finishes in the next month, but the number of those the Spurs can convert into the win column will determine whether they tread water or fall too deep into the rut.
A sub-.500 record is not a death sentence in the thus far underwhelming Southwest Division, but how much longer will that be the case? Will the Hornets teeter between not deep enough and title contender for another month?
With the Rockets continue wandering between brilliant and lethargic, lacking a leader with the cojones to set things straight? Does the Mavericks’ three-game win streak signal a turn around or will this often-gutless bunch of mental midgets continue its seesaw from hopeless to great?
Hey, at least the Grizzlies are the Grizzlies.
The Good—George Hill and Roger Mason Jr.
Corey Maggette spurned the Spurs for a $50 million stint with the Golden State Warriors and it may preserve their title chances.
The explosive scorer promised more points but also carried a label as an unenthusiastic defender, and his signing in Oakland shows that he values playing time and money more than a championship.
The brief pursuit of Jannero Pargo also flamed out.
Had either of these signings succeeded, draft pick George Hill would languish on the bench and Roger Mason might still be in Washington.
The Spurs wanted Frenchman Nicolas Batum, but when the Rockets selected him first and then traded his rights in a confusing draft-night deal, team management went to choice B. Batum showed flashes of his stunning athleticism and defensive talent in the Portland Trail Blazers early 100-99 victory over the Spurs.
He stole a pass from Parker and ran the floor for a rousing jam. He threw in some threes and also a nifty hook. The Spurs, however, are lucky that choice A flopped. The once unknown guard who played at an “it’s called what?” school (IUPUI) might be the team’s smartest selection since landing Parker in 2001.
He is already a terrific NBA-level defender, and he provides a youthful, athletic scoring option off the bench. Most of all, Gregg Popovich has asked Hill to morph from a score-first college guard into a starting point guard in a matter of months, and he has yet to wilt under that tremendous pressure.
Hill will experience growing pains, he will throw up 0-for-8 shooting nights, he will net costly turnovers and this high-profile role will test his confidence and composure. With veteran Jacque Vaughn as mentor, he can become at least a dynamic backup to the still young Parker. No other championship contender added a rookie as ready to contribute on both ends as Hill.
I have followed Mason the last two years as a player who would fit in the Spurs system. No one could have known just how well he fits. He cannot remedy the loss of Ginobili or Parker, but when those two return, he provides the fourth scoring punch the team lacked last year. He also defends with intelligence, shoots well from the foul line and adds another stand-up character to a roster already loaded with them.
Could the Spurs have picked a smarter, nicer guy to join the fray?
He nailed a gutsy game-winning trey against the Clippers in Los Angeles on Monday night, and has scored at least 14 points in all but two of the Spurs contests this year. He takes pressure, as any true Spur should, and does not allow it to eclipse his respectful confidence.
Mason has given the Spurs more than they could have expected from Maggette. Consider also that Maggette nursed a hamstring ailment for weeks and would not be playing. Mason should rank high on any most improved player list and may soon become the steal of the summer.
The Bad—This Isn’t January
Those who believe ZZ Pop’s beard cursed the Spurs season should shudder at the thought of another January. Or, the month where two seasons ago, fans in San Antonio suffered through an agonizing 10-10 month that included losses to the Milwaukee Bucks and other lottery teams.
The Spurs did win a title that year, number four, but that was predicated on an excellent start in November and a ferocious finish after the All-Star break.
Will that early 1-4 start doom them beyond repair?
The Spurs can ill afford another comatose stretch after Parker and Ginobili return. The team must find and keep its brilliance, and avoid the usual speed bumps, to survive the West grind. With the early overload on Duncan, is that possible?
The Good—Early Schedule Favors Poor Health
The Spurs could not have asked for a better opening schedule given the swath of injuries. An early visit from the Knicks, road games against last year’s lottery teams, a manageable number of back-to-backs, and of course, two dates with the Clippers should allow Ginobili and Parker to return to full health before the worst of the grind starts.
The Lakers first play the Spurs in January, and the Hornets first arrive in mid-December. The return of the All-Star backcourt will allow the Spurs depth to materialize.
Kurt Thomas and Fabricio Oberto can regain lost minutes and contribute on the boards and the defensive end. I assume they have lost minutes because of their slumping offensive output.
The full health of Parker and Ginobili will also allow the Spurs to see what they can get from athletic big men Ian Mahinmi and Anthony Tolliver. With more proven offensive threats off which to play, they could become effective role players.
The schedule’s structure bodes well only if that pile of wreckage doesn’t grow.
The Bad—Loaded Western Conference Will Injure Spurs Approach to Season
The last time Duncan hoisted a championship trophy, the Spurs had jumped from third in the conference, a 23-loss mark, and phenomenal regular seasons from the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns, to get there.
These Spurs like to coast through parts of the season and turn on the jets when the losses start counting. Problem is, the rest of the West caught up, and suddenly, those games in December and January that were mere blemishes become potentially fatal losses.
Whereas the Spurs could afford to lose 92-95 at home against the Charlotte Bobcats two seasons ago, with vastly improved playoff competition, those contests now become must-wins. If they cannot get those, how can they expect to best the Lakers, Jazz, Hornets, Rockets and other sexier contenders?
The Good—Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker and ZZ Pop
Popovich asked Duncan in these first weeks of the season to carry the scoring load and the first-ballot Hall of Famer did. His lowest scoring output, 12 points on 4-13 shooting with 11 rebounds, came in an 81-91 Wednesday home loss to the Denver Nuggets. Talk of his decline is a fabrication by Spurs haters who enjoy wishful thinking.
He remains the best power forward in the game on either end, and his intelligent and fiery leadership will always give the Spurs a chance to win a title, even if most non-fans know none of the players around him. Their loss.
In the opening night fumble against the Suns, he scored at will, whenever he wanted, and abused rookie hustler Robin Lopez on the low block.
Because of Duncan and Popovich, Tolliver, Udoka, Mahinmi, Hill and Mason are no longer unknowns. Each of them competes in their own right, but it is the All-Star foundation that allows them to score off double teams, lay in post passes and do the dirty work.
If he retains his durability, he could play six more years, and retire in his late-30s/early-40s, as did Kareem Abdul Jabar. Duncan played through nearly two seasons with a crippled foot and helped the Spurs win a championship, the Southwest Division twice and 55-plus games twice.
They do call it a “big three” for a reason. Ginobili pours in 13 points in fourth quarters to help close out the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers in championship series, Parker hits 20-footers to clinch close out wins against the Phoenix Suns and New Orleans Hornets earlier this year, the latter on the road, or Duncan nails a lefty hook to win game six in Seattle two years ago.
Few teams can saddle this trio four out of seven times in the playoffs, and as the Lakers discovered last year, an injury to one of them helps.
Ginobili limped and played on a bum ankle for the entire second and third rounds.
But, it’s what Popovich can do with his collection of stars and role players that allows them to move in concert. Once a traditionalist, he abandoned that philosophy in hacking Shaquille O’Neal,
Brian Skinner and even Tyson Chandler in the 2008 playoffs. Mathematics beat O’Neal for the umpteenth time in his career.
Down three points in game one of the playoffs to O’Neal’s Suns, most coaches would have inserted Brent Barry to throw an extra shooter on the floor. Popovich sent in Fabricio Oberto to set the screen that opened up Michael Finley’s tying three.
The Bad—Draft Blunders Continue to Sting
R.C. Buford and Popovich carry the Spurs’ reputation as a team that drafts well for its usually low position. Finding Tony Parker in the late 20s and Manu Ginobili in the mid 50s can do that.
But, how many major rotation players has San Antonio landed in Secaucus since Parker in 2001?
Before Hill, and possibly Mahinmi, the answer is none.
Buford and Popovich can look back at the last seven years of misses and know that hindsight is not a consolation prize.
It would be hard to get anyone to listen to a whine fest about bad karma in the draft, when the greatest luck in the world allowed all of this to happen. With Duncan anchoring the lineup, some would argue that the Spurs didn’t need the draft to continue succeeding.
Notable misfires
Just after the Spurs had finished off Jason Kidd’s New Jersey Nets in the 2003 NBA Finals, the front office traded away its 28th first-round pick to clear more cap space so it could further court the star point guard. Duncan flew Kidd to San Antonio, drove him around, and tried convincing him to leave the asbestos of the Atlantic for the heat of South Texas.
Had the Spurs landed Kidd, his salary would have forced Parker to sign somewhere else, and no one can guarantee those two championships would still see fruition. Parker is Popovich’s brilliant “stallion” point guard and Kidd’s decision to stay in New Jersey turned out to be a gift. The two players available at that position play for conference rivals—Leandro Barbosa and Josh Howard.
While Barbosa’s one-dimensionality, defenselessness and inability to thrive in a half-court game makes him expendable, letting Howard go could haunt this team for years. Were he in a silver and black uniform, the Maverickss would likely not have beaten them in the 2006 playoffs, and that in-state rival might still be searching for a second wheel.
How could Popovich, who made Stephen Jackson a champion and great teammate, not reign in Howard and prevent this recent slew of public relations debacles?
Tiago Splitter, the first-round pick in 2007, could help the Spurs a lot with his interior scoring and bruising defense. They traded away the five-year-old draft rights to Luis Scola because they thought Splitter would fit better with Duncan.
At the time, it seemed like an honorable move, helping an Argentine with a ridiculous buyout price achieve his NBA dreams. Splitter startled the Spurs this summer with news he would sign for two more years with his European club.
Scola plays valuable minutes for the rival Rockets, and if Splitter doesn’t show up in the next two seasons and contribute as expected, this one will also agonize management for years.
Mahinmi, a first round selection in 2005, oozes athleticism and talent but has yet to exhibit that he can play five minutes without committing a silly foul. Even in his 2007-08 All-D League season with the Austin Toros, brainless fouls limited his playing time.
Popovich thinks the French forward can help his squad on the NBA level this year, and will throw him into the rotation once he recovers from a minor injury. Even a small contribution from Mahinmi, coupled with Hill’s progression will prove this team can still find draft steals when it needs them.
The Good—Philosophy of Champions
If the Spurs seem to value bargain players who fit the roster more than talented athletes, they are guilty as charged. The league-wide hatred of this four-time champion is understandable given the remarkable production they milk from the players no one else wants.
Popovich turned Bowen from an undrafted journeyman to the league’s most despised defensive stalwart, Jacque Vaughn wins more games with his steady hand, acuity and hustle than you think and Fabricio Oberto performs garbage work as well as any role player.
While other teams stockpiled dazzling, 20-something dunkers, the Spurs snatched up cheap veterans who most thought were throwaway benchwarmers and used them to beat those more exciting youngsters.
If I coached as much talent as Mike D’Antoni did in Phoenix and lost annually to three All-Stars surrounded by exceptionally used veterans, I might bolt for the Eastern Conference, too.
That same economy now threatens to derail the Spurs’ season. Without Parker and Ginobili, those specialists are not talented enough to fill in the offensive blanks against the elite teams.
Then again, Mason Jr. and Hill look like extraordinary finds who could bolster a bench in sore need of more than the return of an Argentina slasher.
With full health and accelerated maturity from Hill, this team boasts the guts, coaching and sagacity to beat the favored Lakers and Hornets in a playoff series. Could is an important operative here, and the Spurs must also hope the same lottery ball luck that produced Duncan still exists in San Antonio.
One thing is certain for this veteran bunch, and you can thank the above philosophy for it. No one outsmarts the Spurs. Except themselves.
