Victor Ortiz Has No Chance Against Floyd Mayweather Jr.

On Saturday, September 17, 2011, Victor Ortiz will take on unquestionably the most difficult opponent he’s ever faced in his brief ten-year boxing career, Floyd “Money” Mayweather Jr. While most have already written off Ortiz, thanks in large part to his loss to Marcos Maidana in 2009, where many think he quit in the fight, Ortiz somehow maintains a confident bravado that leads one to believe that he actually expects to beat Mayweather next Saturday.

I, however, am not one of those believers. I know I’m not going out on a limb picking the 41-0 champion, but, in my opinion, Ortiz just isn’t ready for the kind of speed and technique that Mayweather brings. That’s not to say Ortiz doesn’t have the potential to one day dethrone Mayweather, but at this stage in his career Victor is too raw and too emotional to go through twelve rounds of championship level boxing with Floyd. He likely understands he won’t be able to knock Mayweather out; Floyd is too fast and too smart to allow anyone close enough to get off a power shot. Mosley came the closest, but was still far, far away from being able to finish Mayweather off. That being said, Victor’s only shot at a win is to out-point Mayweather, and that’s a task I’m not even sure Pacquiao could be asked to perform.

The only real variable working in Ortiz’s favor for this fight is the fact that Floyd, coming off a 16-month layoff, “could” show signs of ring rust. Do I believe that’s actually going to play a role in the fight? No. Not even a little. Mayweather works harder than anyone I’ve seen in the professional sports world. He’s truly a student of the game and doesn’t rely on pure athletic ability. People may not respect him because of his swagger or arrogance, but to watch the man work is truly something hyperbole cannot begin to describe.

Admittedly, Ortiz is one of the biggest fighters size-wise Mayweather will have seen, but, to an extent, I think that actually works in Floyd's favor, as he should have an added quickness advantage over the 5’ 9” Ortiz. It’ll be interesting to see whether Ortiz attempts to cut off the ring and force Mayweather into the corners, fighting a strategic match, or if Ortiz will choose to stalk Mayweather in an attempt to land a power shot. Given his strength and size (and youth), all signs point to Ortiz looking to land power shots at the expense of ring awareness and punching volume. He’s notoriously willing to stand and trade punches even if it means getting knocked to the canvas a few times, and while Mayweather probably won’t pose as much of a knockout threat as Victor’s previous opponents, Floyd thrives on opponents who “think” they’ll be able to catch him. It’s with these stylistic matchups that Mayweather is able to cerebrally pick apart his opponents without ever really being threatened in the fight.

On paper, Ortiz doesn’t really have the pedigree to be in this fight, and next Saturday I think this point will become abundantly clear. But, in all honesty, this could be one of the best fights long-term for Victor to learn from. He’s only 24 years old and has a bright future ahead, so long as he learns from his shortcomings and hitches his wagon to the right people (see: De La Hoya, Oscar).

Currently, lines-makers have Mayweather as a 7-to-1 favorite over “Vicious” Victor Ortiz and, sadly, I still feel there’s value in this line, Floyd wins this fight 10 out of 10 times, each the result of a unanimous decision victory, which in my opinion is the more telling sign of a dominant fight, one in which the fighter relies on the technical aspects of a sport to win rather than always looking for that one-punch night-ender (see: St. Pierre, Georges).

Having said all that, I still think it’ll be a fight worth watching, and hopefully it will serve as the platform for what could finally prompt Mayweather/Pacquiao sometime in 2012, because unless Mayweather decides to move up in weight class, there are no more opponents for Floyd to face outside of Manny.

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