Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs Victor Ortiz: 10 Factors That Could Spell Upset

I'm not going to lie: I am pretty certain Floyd Mayweather Jr. is going to win this fight. My official prediction is Mayweather 118-109. I think Ortiz gets soundly out boxed and knocked down at some point. 

Still, this is a case where I would love to be wrong. And since I blew my GI Bill and Army College Fund on cheap beer and studying philosophy, for better or worse, my only true talent is the ability to see an argument from every available side.

So, I can think of all kinds of reasons why Vicious Victor might just turn out to be the livest underdog this sport has seen in years. 

The Law of Averages

There is a reason that there are so few undefeated professional boxers. Beyond that, there is a reason why almost all those undefeated boxers receive a heavy amount of criticism for having weak opposition.

No matter how good you are, if you do enough three minute rounds inside a 20-square-foot ring with other elite level boxers, eventually something bad is going to happen to you.

Anybody who doesn't think Ortiz could possibly hurt Mayweather better go re-watch the Mosley fight. For over 90 percent of that fight, Mosley was thoroughly outclassed and never in a position where he could hurt Mayweather.

He did rock Mayweather early, however. Sugar Shane had him in deep water for the better part of a round. Mayweather proved he was tough and had heart, despite what his legion of haters would like to believe. He swam through the round and re-established his dominance the rest of the way.

When Mosley rocked Mayweather, there was a real sense that it was a last grasp at greatness by a old vet. When it didn't play out, Mosley faded—predictably.

If Ortiz touches up Mayweather early, it's going to be nothing like that. It's going to be a hungry young wolf getting his first taste of really prized blood. It's going to be the rising star Victor Ortiz realizing he truly does belong at the highest level of the sport.

Let's say Mayweather survives one of those scary sort of rounds with Ortiz: He's not going to come out after the one minute break and find a 38 year old man partially deflated because his big play didn't pan all the way out.

He's going to find Victor Ortiz drooling with the hunger of a fighter entering his defining moment. That's an entirely different fight to have to reassert control over.

This point plays into my next one... 

Ortiz Has Power and Will Be Aggressive Enough to Exploit It

The Victor Ortiz who earned this shot by beating Andre Berto in what is currently this year's leading candidate for "Fight of the Year" is a relentless, pressure fighter who will show up on September 17 looking to get in Mayweather's face and beat the snot out of him. 

Mayweather has traditionally done well against this kind of fighter. Against Arturo Gatti he resembled an expert matador slowly killing a wounded bull. 

However, Jose Luis Castillo came the closest anyone has come to beating Mayweather by cutting off the ring and pressuring him back against the ropes. A lot of people believe Castillo actually won that fight, and not just people who hate Mayweather. 

If Ortiz can impose a tough, physical fight on Mayweather without getting counter-punched into oblivion, he has a solid shot to pull this thing off. That's a big if, and he will have to be smart like Castillo, not merely macho like Gatti. 

And consider this: Those two tough fights with Castillo were nine years ago, when Mayweather was a young phenom and Castillo the well-traveled veteran.

The $100 million question then has to be was Castillo simply a crafty old pro exploiting weaknesses that a young Mayweather has long since shored up? Or, did Castillo show the blue print for beating Pretty Boy Floyd nearly a decade ago—a blue print that the hungry, 24 year old Ortiz will be better able to carry out physically against the now seasoned Mayweather?

Mayweather Will Need to Throw More Punches Than Usual to Discourage Ortiz

Floyd Mayweather Jr. is an extremely quick and accurate puncher with more power than the casual fan often gives him credit for. But, he has a history of hand problems and as his career has gone on, he has shown increasing reluctance to unload with multiple punch flurries. Against a pressure fighter like Ortiz, this might cause him problems. 

Mayweather's footwork is so good that he often finds himself in attacking positions that most fighters would never get into. He has been able to pile up scoring, and even completely break opponents down during fights, simply by throwing one or two extremely accurate punches at a time.

This strategy could be dangerous for Mayweather against a fighter like Ortiz, who is willing to take shots and keep coming forward aggressively. Ortiz will still have to land his own punches, of course, which is always easier said than done against Pretty Boy Floyd.

The longer Mayweather allows him to hang around, the more opportunities he gets to roll those dice.

Ortiz Truly Seems to Believe This Is His Destiny

Victor Ortiz claims he first became convinced he would some day beat Floyd Mayweather Jr. when he was only nine years old. In his mind, that was a kind of Holy Revelation of his destiny being revealed to him. The Victor Ortiz we have seen profiled on the HBO 24/7 series is a supremely confident young man. 

Of course, the history of sports going back to the Ancient Greeks is the history of supremely confident young men seeing the dream they have expected to come true forever turn into dust as they crash in defeat. So ultimately, a positive, can-do, sense of self belief doesn't mean a damned thing if the talent to compete just isn't there.Yet, without it, no professional athlete has a prayer.

In a one-on-one combat sport, where the objective is to impose your will on an opponent in close range, this kind of mental edge is that much more important, and often that much more difficult to dredge up. 

Ortiz Seems to Have Found His Perfect Weight

The big knock on Ortiz is he doesn't really have enough heart; based on his disappointing six round TKO loss to the 140-pound Marcos Maidana.

I am more inclined to believe that 140 lbs was simply a terrible weight for Ortiz, who looks to me like a pretty big welterweight. He has said that the cut drained him, and who can deny that against the explosive Berto. At 147 lbs he looked like an entirely different fighter.

I don't think Ortiz is as good of a boxer as Juan Manuel Marquez, who Mayweather handled easily. Marquez, however, was fighting Mayweather as a welterweight (as he will do against Manny Pacquiao in October), and is a natural lightweight.

Even though I don't think Ortiz is as good as Marquez, I think he's a big, rugged welterweight, and that will present much more of a challenge for Mayweather.  

Ortiz Is a Southpaw

When you are a boxer like Floyd Mayweather Jr., who relies upon slick, precise footwork, facing an opponent who fights from the left side can be extremely unsettling. Suddenly, everything you do so smoothly, so automatically, is all wrong.

The exact same patterns of movement that have allowed you to make so many other boxers look like stumbling clods can lead directly to a mouthful of glove against a southpaw.

I don't want to over hype this point, because Mayweather and his team are clearly capable of preparing for a southpaw. He has fought six left handed opponents and not had a tremendous amount of difficulty with any of them. I even think people tend to somewhat overstate how well Zab Judah did against him in the first four rounds of their fight. 

Still, it is a factor to consider. Even if it doesn't cause Mayweather major defensive problems, it could easily make it more difficult for him to create the same angles he's used to seeing for his sniper-punching.

It definitely increases the odds of him getting caught flush with a punch. 

Ortiz Has the Oscar De La Hoya Factor

One of the most interesting segments of the HBO 24/7 show has been watching Oscar De La Hoya visit with Ortiz, even giving the young fighter a motivating pep talk.

It's impossible not to wonder what tips De La Hoya might be giving Ortiz off camera. De La Hoya has a brilliant boxing mind and in losing to Mayweather by split decision, he at least gave him about as close of a fight as anybody else has, aside from Castillo.

You have to think De La Hoya might have some very valuable insights into what kind of strategies might work for a younger fighter who is better equipped to pull the trigger than he was during his shot at Mayweather.  

Could Mayweather's out of Ring Distractions Finally Be Too Much?

I'm going to say that this point is my weakest one, at least for talking about a guy like Money Mayweather. His life appears to have been a soap opera with many plot lines for as long as he's been fighting. None of it them have ever prevented him from being 100 percent focused and ring ready.

He's one of the sport's only true superstars, and it's a roll he embraces fully. And it's never hurt his game. He returned after a nearly two year lay off and an embarrassing clown show in the WWE and proceeded to shut out all-time great Juan Manuel Marquez.

But Floyd's more recent distractions have been a whole lot less fun than headlining with Big Show and hanging out with the Kardashian girls. And he's older, too (34). He's almost legally old enough to be president. Like the old Bob Seger song says, a man comes to a point in his life when it starts to tire him out to always be running "against the wind."  

I have to say, though, that the Mayweather we have been seeing on the 24/7 show, despite looking like a moron when pretending to use a stack of $100 bills to talk on the phone to his good pal, Fifty Cent, has looked entirely focused and intense during every training session that has aired. 

Will Ring Rust Slow Mayweather Down?

Floyd Mayweather Jr. has fought just twice in the last three years and nine months. Victor Ortiz has fought 11 times during that span. The 24 year old challenger might not have the natural skill of "Money," but expect him to come in as sharp as he can possibly be.

Two years ago, Mayweather came back from a 21 month layoff to look spectacular in shutting out perennial pound-for-pound contender Juan Manuel Marquez. But, Marquez is a natural 135-pounder and has been around the block a few times.

Ortiz is fresh, hungry and a very solid 147 lbs.

Mayweather is two years older than Ortiz, which leads me to my final slide and the one factor that gives me the most pause before casually checking off Mayweather for another one-sided victory cruise...

Age Really Could Be a Factor

I know that in this age of Bernard Hopkins and Glen Johnson it can be hard to remember that once upon a time, 34 years old was considered to be a bit long in the tooth for a professional boxer.

This is a sport where great champions often grow old in a single night inside of the ring. This sudden drop-off in talent is perhaps most common among the truly gifted prodigies, like Mayweather—those wizards who for years coasted on vastly superior reflexes and hand speed. Look no further than Roy Jones Jr.

Ortiz is a young, hungry fighter, and that is something Mayweather has not faced in a long time. As Eric Raskin noted in The Ring this month, Mayweather has not fought anybody under 28 years old in six years.

At the very least, seeing an all-time problem child, like Floyd Mayweather Jr., finally being cast as the old master going up against the young gun is another compelling side story to this highly anticipated bout.