Strikeforce Barnett vs. Kharitonov: Bleacher Report MMA Staff Predictions

Jordy McElroySep 8, 2011

Strikeforce brings the semifinals of its Heavyweight Grand Prix to the U.S. Bank Arena in Cincinnati, Ohio.

The main event features a semifinal bout between former UFC heavyweight champion Josh Barnett and Sergei Kharitonov.

Finally back in the mainstream spotlight, Barnett seeks redemption for a career marred by controversy.

He is coming off a second-round submission victory over Brett Rogers in the quarterfinals, which took place in June.

Labeled as the dark horse in the entire tournament, Kharitonov is coming off a devastating knockout victory over former UFC champion Andrei Arlovski.

In the second semifinal bout, top-10 heavyweight Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva meets U.S. Olympian Daniel Cormier, who is stepping in as a replacement for newly signed UFC heavyweight Alistair Overeem.

The card also features a Strikeforce middleweight title bout between Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza and Luke Rockhold.

The time has come once again for you to feast on some manly induced knowledge in preparation for the upcoming fights. Snatch a cold beverage out the fridge and get comfortable. It's prediction time.

The Bleacher Report MMA staff will be represented by yours truly, Jordy McElroy, John Heinis, Dale De Souza and Dwight Wakabayashi.

Pat Healy vs. Maximo Blanco

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Jordy

The Strikeforce card opens up with veteran lightweight Pat Healy stepping in for the injured Josh Thomson to take on former lightweight King of Pancrase Maximo Blanco.

With over a decade of experience, Healy is a journeyman in MMA. Over the years, he has defeated notable opposition in Carlos Condit, Paul Daley and Dan Hardy, but he has never maintained the consistency required to keep a spot on the mainstream stage.

On the other hand, Blanco has been plenty consistent, winning his last six fights in dominant fashion. This may be the first time he's fighting on American soil, but hardcore fans have been following "Maxi's" ventures in Japan's Sengoku and Pancrase promotions for the past four years.

Healy is a wily veteran that has the ability to capitalize on the smallest mistakes, but Blanco, a 2007 Pan American bronze medalist in wrestling, has the grappling edge to control the action.

When the fight hits the ground, Blanco has to be cautious in the grappling transitions against the crafty Healy. One mistake and Blanco's big U.S. arrival could be marred by a Healy submission.

There may be a few exciting scrambles, but fans should look forward to a grappling match, with Blanco maintaining a dominant position and picking up a workmanlike unanimous decision.

Maximo Blanco by unanimous decision

John

Maximo Blanco sounds like a character from an old Super Nintendo game or something. Still, definitely a cool name, and an at least equally cool nickname in "The Max Murderer."

A great freestyle wrestler (grabbing a bronze medal at the 2007 Pan American Games), with some serious power in his hands, the Venezuelan is pretty well rounded.

Perhaps we should tamper off expectations though since all 12 of his professional fights have taken place in Japan. I heard somewhere that the refs all wear earpieces in Japan...

Joking aside, I do think Blanco could be a serious contender, but his journeyman opponent, Pat Healy, is no slouch.

Healy has fought a lot of names at welterweight before, with wins over Paul Daley and Carlos Condit, as well as losses to Jake Ellenberger and Jay Hieron.

Since dropping to lightweight, he has won four of the past five, including handing Lyle Beerbohm his first professional loss in what was an all-out grappling war.

So cutting to the chase, Healy is a pretty decent grappler, but Blanco is an excellent wrestler with far better striking.

Healy doesn't get knocked out much (four times in 41 fights), but I'm going to go out on a limb and predict one more here.

Maximo Blanco via second-round TKO (punches)

Dale

Strikeforce continues its tradition of putting the veteran-vs.-prospect fight as the opening fight of the main card with Maximo Blanco vs. Pat Healy.

The skinny of this dipping is that Healy is a gamer who takes fights on short notice at times and always takes breaths away by putting up a fight, and realistically speaking, this is a fight that Healy's grappling is supposed to win on paper despite taking it on short notice.

However, MMA fights don't always play out as they do on paper, and Blanco is no exception.

Fans of showstoppers who put the show before the win will likely not find a great-enough reason to dislike Blanco after this bout with Healy, as he's been know to push a fast pace with his striking in every fights he's been in.

The only problem anyone has seen in Blanco's balls-out style—a "live by the sword, die by the sword, but always go out on the shield" style which encompasses a solid wrestling game as well—is that he can sometimes get too wild with his striking, and it either leads to a dirty move or a submission loss when he does.

Against a guy like Healy, who has beaten guys he was supposed to lose to but also lost to fighters he was supposed to run through, I believe Maxi's aggression will in fact be in check, as he forces Healy to play into his game plan, which will lead to Healy trying to make Vitor Belfort plays with amateur-level striking—not to say Healy can't finish Blanco, but he will get goaded into striking with Blanco.

Don't be surprised if what follows is Blanco rushing forward and causing Healy to collapse as the Zuffa welcome mat is rolled for Venezuela's gift to the already-loaded MMA lightweight scene.

Blanco by R1 TKO, R3 KO at the latest

Dwight

Pat Healy is generally a seasoned veteran fighter who has lost against the top-20 tier in his division. He is 26-16 in his career and known for winning decision fights. Maximo Blanco ranked even lower and in this fight both are looking to climb up for a shot at Gilbert Melendez. Blanco is an exciting striker and this is a step up for him.

I see Blanco having an advantage in the striking but that is were his chance ends and Healy will weather any storm he brings and dictate the fight from there out. Healy is more experienced and more importantly more well rounded and I see him winning a decision.

Healy (via unanimous decision)

Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal vs. Roger Gracie

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Jordy

In terms of styles, this is the most interesting fight on the entire card.

Roger Gracie is easily one of the most accomplished Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioners in all of MMA, and Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal is an NCAA Division II wrestling champion.

What will be Lawal's strategy in this bout?

This entire fight will likely be decided on the feet, which tends to be foreign territory for most of the Gracie clan.

Roger has developed a stiff jab and snapping leg kicks to work opponents over on the outside, but it's hard to envision the much stronger Lawal being denied from closing the distance and roughing the BJJ black belt up in the pocket.

As the superior wrestler, Lawal will dictate the action in this fight, and Gracie will be forced to either best the standup exchanges or try to pull guard.

There is always a chance that Gracie pulls a submission out of nowhere, but Lawal is competent enough to implement his game plan without getting careless. The main question mark that is often overlooked in this bout is Gracie's ability to absorb punishment.

How will he react when Lawal cracks him on the feet? Will he keep coming forward or turtle to avoid damage?

Look for the latter to happen, as Lawal blasts Gracie with a lunging hook and swarms with a barrage of punches that forces the referee to call a halt to the action in the first round.

Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal by Round 1 TKO

John

A classic fight between a high-level wrestler and a high-level jiu-jitsu guy.

King Mo actually has five knockouts in seven career wins. Gracie is even newer to the sport with a record of 4-0, but all have been via submission, three with a rear-naked choke.

Now, Lawal said he's not afraid to go to the ground with Gracie and he's not even ruling out the possibility that he can submit him.

I understand Lawal is a colorful personality and he likes to hype his fights...but there is no way anyone actually believes that, Lawal included.

If the fight goes to the ground, Gracie will submit Lawal. It's that simple. So the question is, does Lawal have the counter-striking and takedown defense to keep the fight standing?

Roger probably has the best striking of any Gracie that has embarked into MMA, but I think you still have to give King Mo the advantage in that category.

I'm really torn on this one, as Lawal has only faced two quality opponents and went 1-1, while Gracie has yet to really face anyone relevant (unless you still have some stock invested in Kevin Randleman).

I'm going to say Gracie via submission, but I'm not going to be astonished if King Mo scores a knockout either.

All I know for sure is that I'm not expecting a 15-minute fight.

Roger Gracie via third-round submission (rear-naked choke)

Dale

King Mo hasn't fought since the night Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante destroyed him and took his Strikeforce light heavyweight title, and for "Blackuraba," that's going to be the biggest issue coming into his bout with Roger Gracie.

Don't let the brief record of Gracie fool you, as he has torn through the ranks of the grappling scene, with only Jacare Souza, Marcio Cruz, Alexandre Ribiero and Jon Olav Einemo putting blemishes on Gracie's grappling record.

In the MMA world, however, he's used his size well enough to where the end result was always the same: Gracie found a way to take a body part, and he made his opponent squeal like a slaughtered pig.

I don't know if reach will be a factor for the Plano East Senior High alumnus to be concerned over, but for his sake, I definitely hope he has improved his hands and especially his hand speed.

I have this fear that if Mo believes Gracie will be lost once his wrestling kicks in, Gracie will trap the former 205-lb champion in what will be Gracie's first MMA win by triangle choke, and after facing that fear, I'm sticking with it.

Mo is a great wrestler, but there's no counter for a Jiu-Jitsu game like Gracie's unless you have an awesome top game or a relentless striking game, and until Saturday comes, I'm not going to convince myself that my fellow Texas native has either.

Gracie by R1 triangle choke

Dwight

Former Strikeforce light heavyweight champion Mo Lawal is coming off his first loss in Strikeforce and it was a very tough one at that. He lost his title to Rafael Calvacante last August and is looking for an immediate bounce back.

Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt Roger Gracie comes into this fight 4-0 in MMA and 2-0 in Strikeforce to date and this is a very interesting step up for him. All of his wins have come by submission and Lawal will pose a bigger problem for Gracie than he has seen to date.

Lawal is a large favorite in this fight and he will look to defend the takedown, land that fight-changing strike and test Gracie's chin throughout.

I believe that landing strikes will be the difference in this one and Lawal will have the upper hand on Gracie's grappling based on damage and will gain a TKO in the end.

Lawal (second-round TKO)

Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza vs. Luke Rockhold

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Jordy

Strikeforce is really reaching for middleweight title contenders. The fact that Luke Rockhold's name is slotted next to Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza's proves it.

Rockhold, who hasn't even competed since February 2010, is coming off wins over Paul Bradley, Jesse Taylor and Cory Devela. While all of these guys are respectable MMA veterans, a win over them doesn't warrant a title shot against one of the best middleweights in the world.

The potential is certainly there for Rockhold, who has demonstrated well-rounded skills in all six of his Strikeforce appearances. He has finished every fight by either TKO or submission in the first round.

Jacare is simply too big a step up for Rockhold. There is always a chance Rockhold lands a big strike on the feet, but Jacare's patience, superior athleticism and world-class grappling will shine through.

It won't take fans long to realize the gap in skill level as Jacare nabs a few takedowns and submits Rockhold in the second round with a rear-naked choke.

Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza by second-round rear-naked choke

John

Jiu-jitsu enthusiasts have to be excited to see Gracie and Souza fighting back to back on this card.

"Jacare" is on a four-fight win streak, and has picked up a couple of back-to-back quality wins over Tim Kennedy and Robbie Lawler.

Many have questioned Souza's chin after getting rocked multiple times by Lawler and even a handful of folks even think Kennedy beat Souza (but I mean literally a handful).

However, Luke Rockhold is not going to be the guy to exploit Souza's adequate (at best) striking.

Rockhold is a grappler all the way, with five submissions in seven career wins.

He has shown some nasty ground-and-pound as well at times, but this is still a horrible matchup for him.

Souza's black belt in BJJ and judo will trump any takedowns, submissions and sweeps the unknown Rockhold has to offer.

Just in case you were predicting a massive upset for whatever reason, also keep in mind that Rockhold hasn't fought in about 18-and-a-half months.

Jacare has an easy night ahead of him, but I give credit where credit is due: Rockhold is another guy on the card with an awesome name. Luke Rockhold definitely sounds like the alias of a comic book villain.

Ronaldo Souza via first-round submission (arm triangle choke)

Dale

It's AKA vs. Black House Team Nogueira, and as good a fight as it is, we all know why Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza is fighting Luke Rockhold.

Yes, Rockhold is an exciting AKA prospect with good Guerrilla jiu-jitsu, improved-by-the-bout striking and one good team in the American Kickboxing Academy, but there's one problem:

All the preparation in the world doesn't overshadow the date of Rockhold's last fight, which was late February of 2010, and again, we know why Jacare is facing Rockhold.

If the past few Zuffa cards haven't given it away, I will—as good as Rockhold is, and he is good, he is fighting Jacare because the only other sensible matchups left for Jacare in Strikeforce are either rematches or filler bouts against guys who have no business being in the cage for even 15 seconds with the champ.

Rockhold is the last of the sensible challenges left because even though Jacare has a great jiu-jitsu game and a competent striking game (although nothing that says "KO Power"), Guerilla jiu-jitsu is an unorthodox version of the standard format.

That said, don't expect Jacare to get lost and simply present Rockhold the belt if the fight hits the ground.

Robbie Lawler did drop Jacare hard, but Jacare still found a way to work his fluid jiu-jitsu game on him and score a submission.

Don't call it an upset if Jacare does the same to Rockhold.

Jacare by R2 guillotine choke

Dwight

One of the most feared fighters outside of the UFC in recent years, Ronald "Jacare" Souza is set to defend his middleweight title against Luke Rockhold on this card.

Like Roger Gracie, Jacare is considered one of the best jiu-jitsu practitioners in the world and will look to submit Rockhold if the opening presents itself. Eleven of his 14 wins have come via submission but Souza does carry some skills on the feet.

Rockhold is currently riding a six-fight win streak and he has also won the majority by submission. By all accounts this one appears to be a ground battle and Rockhold may want to prove he is the better man on the floor. I don't see a large advantage standing up for him and he may have no choice but to try to roll head to head with Jacare, and I don't like his chances at all.

Souza (third-round submission)

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Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva vs. Daniel Cormier

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Jordy

Alistair Overeem's exit from the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix has opened the doors for former U.S. Olympian Daniel Cormier.

Fresh off a dominant decision win over Jeff Monson, Cormier will jump right into the fire against top-10 heavyweight contender Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva.

While Cormier showed improved striking against Monson, it would be suicide to test the waters against Silva, who is one of the best strikers in the entire heavyweight division. Cormier needs to use his boxing to set up takedowns in the open.

It'll be hard to secure takedowns against the fence. For a large man, Silva has great balance and flexible hips, and it will be really tough taking him down in clinch situations.

Silva needs to stay on the outside and utilize his reach advantage to pick Cormier apart in the standup exchanges. He'll have to avoid getting sloppy and overzealous. Cormier will be looking for every opportunity to change levels and put the fight on the floor.

The vast majority will likely bank on Silva routing Cormier or picking up the TKO stoppage, but this journalist will put his money on the Olympian.

Cormier has served as one of UFC heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez's premier training partners for a reason. There are few heavyweights with the wrestling prowess of Cormier. He has the potential to be something special in the division.

Due to the contrast in styles, this won't be the most exciting bout.

Look for Cormier to rely on his superior wrestling to secure takedowns and outwork Silva for a close unanimous decision.

Daniel Cormier by unanimous decision

John

Too bad this isn’t Silva vs. Overeem like it’s supposed to be, because then, you know, people would care about this fight.

Honestly, it’s not that bad of a matchup, but you can’t sell this fight because only the most hardcore fans know who Cormier is.

Long story short, he’s an Olympic-level wrestler who is really yet to be challenged in his eight professional victories.

I would’ve preferred to see Chad Griggs fill in here, as I think Cormier has more potential and a loss here would really take the wind out of his sails for a while.

Anyway, Bigfoot has won three in a row after dropping a decision to fellow Brazilian Fabricio Werdum back in 2009.

Silva’s stock is sky-high after completely embarrassing Fedor Emelianenko in February.

While that win is a bit tainted after Fedor was KO’d by Dan Henderson, there is no questioning that Bigfoot is one of the most well-rounded heavyweights in the game.

He has a great chin, solid takedowns, heavy hands and incredibly smooth jiu-jitsu for a big man.

This is why I think Cormier matches up terribly here: He will be able to score some takedowns, but I don’t think Cormier holds Silva there long, considering he’s giving up a good 30-40 pounds here.

Cormier’s got a ton of heart so I think he hangs in there; I can’t see him winning though.

Antonio Silva via unanimous decision (30-27)

Dale

We know this story by heart now.

Daniel Cormier replaced Alistair Overeem against Antonio Silva, and now Overeem is facing Brock Lesnar at UFC 141.

Why that's on a Friday when it could happen on New Year's Eve, I don't know.

Anyway, the bare bones as I see it is that Cormier is a well-rounded mixed martial artist—a mix of great wrestling and some strong hands, among other sharpened tools—going up against the newest addition to the Black House/Team Nogueira family in the striker and jiu-jitsu black belt that is Silva.

Silva can sledgehammer guys on the ground at times, and if you don't crank hard enough on submissions, Silva can make you look like you're just starting out in MMA (ask Fedor Emelianenko).

Cormier is no joke, and there's no doubt in my mind that Silva can get taken down and controlled significantly by the AKA man-beast.

However, what Cormier has in potential, he lacks in experience, and although I wish nothing but the best for Cormier—who I feel could be the next big thing in the sport after Cain Velasquez, Junior Dos Santos, Alistair Overeem and the rest of the current crop fade—my mind is made up.

Without bias, the hands, striking and overall brutality that Silva is capable of will be too much for even the young prospect to handle.

Silva by mid-R3 doctor stoppage

Dwight

Silva is in a great spot in his career and has paid his dues along his way to true improvement in mixed martial arts. His game is solid and his size is imposingly unique.

Cormier is stepping in as a replacement for Alistair Overeem and this is his chance to dance with the big boys and burst onto the scene of heavyweight title contendership. Cormier has impeccable wrestling credentials and is on an eight-fight winning streak of his own.

Both of these men are big strong men and I see the strength battle being an even affair. In my opinion, the difference in this fight will come down to reach alone and with Silva at 6'4" with an 82" reach and Cormier at 5'9" and a 72" reach, the difference will be too much for Cormier to overcome

A. Silva (second-round TKO)

Josh Barnett vs. Sergei Kharitonov

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Jordy

Similar to Antonio Silva and Daniel Cormier, this bout will be a classic grappler versus striker matchup.

Sergei Kharitonov is trouble for any heavyweight on the feet. Along with vicious knockout power, he demonstrates great fluidity in his movement and a technical prowess that has helped him outpoint some of the best heavyweights in the world.

Josh Barnett has the striking acumen to hang in the standup exchanges, but it would be a monumental risk against a striker of Kharitonov’s caliber.

The ground is where Barnett’s world begins and ends. His legendary ground-and-pound often overshadows his world-class submission skills. A black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Barnett has finished 18 of his professional bouts by submission.

This is a tough bout for Kharitonov, who will constantly get pressured with takedown attempts. Barnett doesn’t mind being the villain, and all of the boos in the world won’t sway him from sticking to his strengths.

Kharitonov is better off his back than most credit him for being, but Barnett’s world-class wrestling and BJJ will likely overwhelm the Russian in this bout.

Unless Kharitonov lands a fight-ending shot on the feet, look for Barnett to rack up takedowns and pummel the former kickboxer for three rounds in a lopsided unanimous decision.

Josh Barnett by unanimous decision

John

There are plenty of other fights on this card I’d rather see as the main event, but this is not a bad fight by any stretch.

“The War Master” is a heavy favorite here but “The Russian Mercenary" is criminally underrated.

Kharitonov has gone 1-1 with Alistair Overeem, and also owns a split-decision victory over Fabricio Werdum.

I still can’t pick him to win here though, as Sergei simply has no ground game, at least not compared to Barnett he doesn’t.

Barnett is arguably the best heavyweight grappler, which is why I am really hoping that the finals will pit him against Bigfoot Silva.

Josh has won seven fights in a row, and while he hasn’t taken out any world beaters, he’s looked pretty dominant in each fight.

Also, Barnett has only been knocked out once in his almost 14-year career and that happened almost 10 years ago.

I don’t think Kharitonov can score the KO here, or keep it on the feet long enough to win the decision.

Barnett picks up another sub here.

Josh Barnett via second-round submission (armbar)

Dale

If you didn't have Overeem or Fedor in this GP, chances are you had either one of the four men in the GP semifinals and the chances are high that your pick might have been Josh Barnett or Sergei Kharitonov.

If it was Bigfoot Silva or even Cormier that you picked...well, you're still watching this fight, so suck it up.

Barnett is arguably one of the best catch wrestlers and one of the more colorful stick men in MMA, and neither his promo skills nor his submission prowess need to take much of a backseat to anyone.

The same can be said about Sergei Kharitonov's striking, as the man takes powerful shots from competent fighters but still manages to use his high-level striking to hurt people badly.

The only problem is that Andrei Arlovski got knocked out before we saw much of Sergei's takedown defense (not that we expected to see it), so that's the big question mark.

Then again, maybe Sergei's striking game is elite enough to where we may not need to see Barnett's takedowns stuffed.

Maybe Kharitonov's takedown defense is essentially putting Barnett in a position where he's simply unable to get a takedown attempt off.

If that is the truth of the matter, it'll be a short night for Barnett—and not in the way he wants it to be.

Kharitonov by R1 TKO

Dwight

Barnett is widely considered one of the most well-rounded and dangerous heavyweights in the world and Kharitonov is looking to establish himself on the elite big-man scene. Barnett is a superior shoot wrestler who will look to control this fight's pace and think his way to securing openings and then a victory while Kharitonov likes to come out blazing with striking from both hands and feet.

I see Kharitonov having a chance if the fight remains standing but Barnett is a master at stuffing his opponents strengths and frustrating them into making costly mistakes in the clinch and on the ground. I don't see Barnett getting hit by the big shot and I also don't see Kharitonov being patient enough to whether Barnett's smothering style.

Barnett via unanimous decision