NFL Picks Week 1: From Green Bay to Denver and Every NFL Team in Between

Ladies and gentlemen: Start...your...tailgate!

Yes, we will have to endure endless pregame festivities (except for those of us who actually want to hear the President speak). Yes, the pomp and circumstance can be a little thick. 

Oh, come on, admit it—we all love the whole "championship banner to the rafters, insane cheering Cheeseheads, reveal the Lombardi Trophy" spectacle. As the moment draws nigh, we will all breathe a collective sigh of relief.

We really, truly will have football in 2011. Starting now!

Green Bay Packers vs. the New Orleans Saints: Which Champ Wins?

Straight-Up: GB

Against the Spread: Green Bay -4

Over/Under: Over 47

You know that NFL ad with the footballs flying across America? It's here! Brees, Rodgers and their respective offenses seem ready to roll into 2011 with high scores and dazzling catches.

However, Gregg Williams’ D was embarrassed badly in their last game so I figure they will come out swinging. Ah, but the Pack has the best five wideout set in the league, so good luck with stopping that. The only way for this D to win is to put Rodgers on his butt throughout the game. I’m not sure that they can do that with the GB running game back in full force. Plus, if you blitz, one of those 25 Green and Gold WRs is going to get open. Advantage Green Bay.

GB has a solid kicker; NO has a neurotic kicker. But the Saints have Darren Sproles. So special teams is a draw.

The New Orleans offense looks fairly awesome, but they are facing one of the best secondaries in the league. If Green Bay can get to Drew with their front line, it’ll all be over. Otherwise, the Saints will force the Packers linebackers to try and stop their four-headed rushing attack—and then pass all over them.  Draw.

Rookie Note

Mark Ingram has impressed just about everybody in football nation thus far in his NFL career. He’s still backing up Thomas, but he should get plenty of chances to touch the ball tonight. And I’m pretty sure that Clay “Bloodline” Matthews will be there to meet him—hair flying. Ingram has a rep for never fumbling. I’m sure Clay will have something to say about that.

Almost Rookie Note

Green Bay TE Jermichael Finlay is very anxious to prove that he deserved his 2010 draft status.  Injured for all of last year, this will be Jermichael’s first chance to wow us. And he wants to.

Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Lions Are the Vets?

It’s going to be hot and rainy in Tampa. Advantage Bucs. 

S/U: Detroit

Against the Spread: Detroit +3

O/U: Under 41

Despite a lot of early injuries on both sides (particularly on defense), I think this is about maturity. Tampa Bay is so undeniably young across the board that the lockout killed them. They’ll start clicking in October and then we’ll talk.

As long as Stafford is upright, he is an incredible talent. And, for now, he’s healthy. However, the starting runner has a concussion (but Motor City did bring in former Redskin K. Williams to tote the rock).

Normally I would give this to Tampa Bay, but their young D-line has injuries and Jahvid Best—if he can play—is so elusive that he will run around them. In the meantime, focus in on Tampa Bay RB Blount versus that soon-to-be-legendary Detroit D-line.

Intangible Note

Tampa Bay will be very fired up because Detroit is the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season.

Feel-Good Moment

LeGarrette Blount is turning out to be quite the redemption story—not to mention post-draft steal. A raw talent who had to be told what to do on every play last season (when he wasn’t simply bulldozing over the opponents), Blount paid a heavy price for one sucker punch.

No one was willing to take a risk and Tampa Bay was the second team he landed on in a one-month period. So far, Blount has been a very pleasant surprise off the field and Freeman says his football knowledge has improved vastly on it. That’s a little frightening if you are playing the Bucs this year; did you see that highlight of him hurdling a defender last season? That’s kind of like asking a Humvee to pull an "Edwin Moses!"

Pittsburgh Steelers at the Baltimore Ravens: Slug Fest Part I

S/U: Baltimore

ATS: Baltimore -1 (do not go over 2.5)

O/U: Under 36

I give this one to Baltimore simply because they want it more. Or at least they should want it more. Flacco has been criticized all offseason as not being good enough and not developing fast enough (see Mark Sanchez when we get to the Jets). Well, that would make me mad and I’m not an alpha male.

I don’t know what people expect out of him—he’s consistently led his team to the playoffs and played pretty well in those playoffs. It wasn’t his fault that all of his 2010 WRs  “jumped the shark” at the same moment. Then there’s Ray Lewis who is, well, Ray Lewis.

It’ll be raining, which might curtail Pittsburgh’s passing game a bit. That helps Baltimore a bit. RB Rice is ready to rock and rain will make him happy.

But the Steelers offense looks even better so far this year and they are a returning group whereas Baltimore has a bunch of new and very young guys trying to catch passes. So, it’s going to be up to the Baltimore D to throw Ben off his stride and shut down Mendenhall. I frankly think Ed Reed needs to come down with one for the Ravens to win. Because, seriously—unless you’re from Steel Town—aren’t you tired of the Steelers?

Personal Philosophy Moment

Ben got married. The famous Barbara Bruno “honeymoon theory” has it that players have a down year every time they get married. I’m just saying.

Philadelphia Eagles at St. Louis Rams: Sorry They Ever Said "Dream Team"

S/U: St. Louis

ATS: St. Louis +5

O/U: Over 44

No, I’m not picking St. Louis just because I do not like Vick. I’m picking them because in a lockout year, I think that the Philly All-Star team hasn’t had time to gel at all. Of course, it wouldn’t be the first time that a team had a miserable preseason and then made it on a Super Bowl run—the Pats do it all the time.

But I’m a big Sam Bradford fan, plus a lot of people have not been noticing the logarithmically improved Rams D. Well, what did we expect—they hired the guy who crafted the Giants’ Super Bowl D!

In addition, WR Smith had surgery on his knee and is new to the team, WR Jackson is a loose cannon who is going through a big contract pout and WR Jeremy Maclin is (thank God) recovering from a very serious illness. Not a good combination. As usual, it will all come down to whether or not the St. Louis defense can keep Vick from beating them single-handedly—something I am afraid he is very capable of doing. 

Philly will be a powerhouse this year, just not this soon. Besides, Sam Bradford has all-time (or at least in the past eight years) RB superstar Steven Jackson back there to carry the load—something he is very capable of doing.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. the Cleveland Browns: It's on in the Rust Belt!

S/U: Cleveland

ATS: Cleveland  -6.5

O/U: Over 35, but barely, especially if it’s raining an hour before kickoff, which it might be—but thunderstorms could really mean anything

Oh my god! I know that a computer schedules this stuff—but who on earth thought this up? Two orange teams going at it. One has a second-year QB who is poised for stardom and one has a rookie QB who is pretty darn smart. Dalton is catching on quickly to the NFL game, but we cannot expect him to win in the Dog Pound after five weeks in the NFL.

In the "oh dear" column, Cincy’s star RB just spent five days in jail after two assault arrests this offseason. Two? Anybody else would have gotten six months. Ugh. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s RB is on the cover of Madden. Advantage Cleveland.

The jury is still out on both of these defenses as far as I’m concerned. We’ll learn a lot from how they play this Sunday, but I just cannot see Cincy pulling it together to win.

By the way, they swear Colt McCoy is 23 years old, but I would like to see proof. He still looks 15 to me.

Tennesse Titans vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars: It's Cold in Florida Today

S/U: Tennessee

ATS: Tennessee +3

O/U: Under 39—rain (gee, in Florida in September? What a surprise.)

The Jags just took out a full-page national ad that Blaine Gabbert will be starting by the end of the season—they fired David Garrard. So, Luke McCown will start and Blaine is No. 2. Frankly, I think this is tacky as you-know-what. I know that Garrard had a dismal preseason, but this is about the money—you know it is. Based on what I saw out of the O-line in terms of pass protection, it is a good thing that McCown is relatively mobile—or Gabbert would be starting by the third quarter.

On the other hand, I thought that despite two new QBs, some new WRs and a holdout RB, the Titans O looked pretty sharp in August. And their defense was better than I expected. Remember, new head coach Munchak was promoted from within the organization, so the systems aren’t that different. And Matt Hasselbeck is one of the most underrated QBs in the game. When given time, No. 8 is as accurate as Brees.

But it’s all on the O-line—they have to keep him upright. Because, due to Chris Johnson’s holdout, this is going to have to be a passing game despite the weather. I just hope that Johnson doesn’t pull a hammy in the first five minutes.

Jack Del Rio is so screwed. He’s got one of the best running backs in the game (the best if you go pound for pound)—and that’s it. I think he would have been fired if it hadn’t been for the looming lockout. I hope I’m wrong—I think Del Rio is good and I’d like to see the team do well. But, man, did they look awful in August.

New Face

New LB and defensive signal-caller Barrett Ruud seems to be right at home directing traffic after coming over from Tampa Bay. The rest of the team’s respect for him is palpable.

Oh Dear, Part II

Tennessee WR Kenny Britt managed to get arrested three times during the lockout. The league decided that they can’t suspend him because he wasn’t technically an employee at the time. So, let’s see if Kenny can manage to stay out of jail until Sunday.

Extra credit for those of you who understood the Bette Davis reference.

Buffalo Bills vs. the Kansas City Chiefs: Palko Who?

S/U: Buffalo

ATS: Buffalo

O/U: Under 40

It’s sunny in KC this weekend, but even if the Chiefs starting QB (Matt Cassel) does play, he has a fractured rib. Ouch. Plus, nobody on the KC offense seems to recall the art of football-catching and now star TE Moeaki is out for the season. That leaves their rather awesome running game with Jamaal Charles and the perennially under-appreciated Thomas Jones.

Todd Haley is a good coach, but how much can he do? They looked downright awful in the preseason. On both sides of the ball. (By the way, have you noticed the Bruce Willis facial hair?)

When it comes to Buffalo, I may be 100 percent wrong and buying into preseason hype, but I think they look better. Fitzpatrick is probably the most dismissed QB in the NFL and, when he has someone to pass the ball to, gets it there with alacrity. C.J. Spiller seems to have decided to join us in the professional game, while Fred Jackson has always been an excellent running back.

And the defense certainly appears to be much improved. Certainly, we’ll find out how much. But probably not this week facing that KC offense.

Can't tell the players without a scorecard. If Cassell can’t play the starting QB, it will be Tyler Palko under center. He has played just about everywhere including the CFL. As iffy as that sounds, he looked downright "not bad" in August. And let’s not forget that Theismann, Moon, Garcia and Flutie all visited north of the border.

Indianapolis Colts vs. the Houston Texans: Are We Scared Yet?

S/U: Texans

ATS: Indy +9

O/U: Under 43 (but who knows really?)

It’s very sad that this game is of course nothing like what it should have been, that Peyton Manning is missing his first start since he was 13 years old and that the white elephant in the room is he may never be the same again. 

From NFL.com's Wire Reports/Associated Press:

"

“Colts left tackle Anthony Castonzo was 10 years old when Manning’s streak began. Veteran center Jeff Saturday has never snapped the ball to another quarterback to start a game during his pro career. In fact, no player on Indy’s roster has participated in a regular-season or playoff game for the Colts without No. 18 at the controls.”

"

It’s interesting: Fans and pundits debate endlessly about who the best QB in the NFL is—but ask any defensive player (except those who played for New England—what do they know, they didn’t play against Brady) and they will absolutely pick Peyton Manning every time.

I listened to Marcellus Wiley the other day on ESPN Radio. He said:

"

“When you played against Tom Brady you felt like you’d been in a fight, that sometimes you lost that fight and sometimes you weren’t even sure why you lost. But when you played against Manning you felt like you had been put on the operating table and surgically dissected no matter what you tried to do to stop it.” 

"

Former Jacksonville Jaguar LB Kirk Morrison said a few months ago that, after playing against Manning twice last season, “He single-handedly took that team to the playoffs.” I believe it. I hope it’s not over, but ask Sterling Sharpe and Michael Irvin about neck injuries.

Anyway, Kerry Collins gives the Colts a much better chance than poor unprepared Painter. But unless Indy is ahead by at least two touchdowns going into the fourth, I don’t think the Colts defense can hang on to win. Unless Freeney and Mathis can get past the Texans O-line—a lot. 

And, with the Texans' new toughness on defense, I’ll be surprised if the Colts will be able to run the ball. I actually expect Collins to have at least a 300-yard day, with a TD or two. Unless rookie LT Castonzo can’t hold the line—yikes. If young Anthony C. can keep people from tearing Kerry’s head off, the Colts should keep it within a TD. We’ll see how everyone’s conditioning holds up on a 90-degree day.

Meanwhile, the Texans have two very good running backs (one if Arian Foster’s hamstring keeps him out—which it could). But Ben Tate is another one of those rookies whose first season was a total loss to injury. He is chomping at the bit to prove he can handle the rock at this level. And if you don’t know how dangerous Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are you have no business being in an office football pool.

Atlanta Falcons vs. the Chicago Bears: Matty Ice Stepping Up

S/U: Atlanta

ATS: Chicago +3

O/U: Over 40.5—I’m pretty sure about this one.

I’ll bet Atlanta is very thankful that this game is in September and not December. It’s even supposed to be sunny!  Happy Matt Ryan. 

Actually, I think Ryan is pretty happy all the way around these days. I mean how many toys does one QB need? Talk about an embarrassment of riches. Unless someone gets hurt or the O-line collapses, this should be a high-scoring year in Hotlanta. But wait, center McClure is out with a hamstring injury. Is that Brian Urlacher I see smiling?

Now, it’s about that defense. I’m not in that locker room, but it doesn’t take a defensive genius to know that Cutler has no protection whatsoever and you had better come after him from snap one. This defense worries me, but they were horribly embarrassed last January versus Aaron Rodgers and a rookie running back, so I know that they will want to make a statement.

Since Cutler has no TE safety valve, two good-but-not-great WRs, one bust WR (what the heck happened to Roy Williams anyway? He was terrific in Detroit) and no discernible pass protection, the Atlanta D could have a good day. Unless they forget about Matt Forte. Who could kill them.

If Cutler can stay reasonably clean and if the fresh Chicago D can force some turnovers, which they are fully capable of doing, Da Bears could win at home. Ultimately, it still comes down to whether the Atlanta defense has been able to fix anything in four weeks.

Seattle Seahawks vs. the San Francisco 49ers: Do We Really Care?

S/U: San Francisco

ATS: San Francisco

O/U: Over 37.5, but barely—the weather will of course be windy and iffy.

This pick is based on:

1. I never thought I’d say this, but Alex Smith is actually a better quarterback than someone. That someone is Tarvaris Jackson. I maintain that Carroll should be drug-tested for bringing in Jackson and Bevell from the Vikings. Jackson couldn’t execute the Vikings offense in Minnesota—that’s why they brought in No. 4, remember?

2. The 49ers are at home, where hopefully they will have crowd support.

3. The 49ers have a running game. Actually, they have a magnificent running back in Frank Gore—who is fresh and has a fresh contract. Rock on.

4. I think that the San Francisco D is better—but I could be selling the Seahawks short on this count. Still, Patrick Willis is darned impressive.

5. Did I mention that Okung, Gallery, Rice, Lynch and Mike Williams are all hurt?

6. Even without one single NFL coaching game under his belt, Jim Harbaugh is a better coach than Pete Carroll. Of course, that’s not saying much.

Frankly, I think the only way for Seattle to prevail here would be for Leon Washington to carry the ball on 1st through 4th down continuously—and return punts. Of course, based on the shameless way that Carroll wore him out in August, he might be too tired even for that.

Other than all of the above, do they really have to play this game? Can’t we not and say we did?

Carolina Panthers vs. the Arizona Cardinals: Welcome to the NFL

S/U: Cardinals

ATS: Cardinals -7

O/U: Under 37

Any game in which Larry Fitzgerald plays is worth watching. Particularly when it looks as if Kolb may even be capable of getting him the football. I’m so sorry for rookie RB Ryan Williams. Arizona is a great fit for him and he’s out for the year.

I guess we’ll find out if Beanie Wells comes close to deserving his recent high draft status. Thus far he seems to be taking the C.J. Spiller, Ryan Matthews course in under-impressiveness. But this might be his week. You never know.

Rookie Cam Newton has a few good things going:

1. I have to admit that his attitude and approach are so far beyond what I expected that I may have to re-write my draft review on the Panthers.

2. He has one of the very best one-two punches at running back in the league.

3. He has two of the best pass-catching TEs in the league ready and willing and able to bail him out on every passing down.

4. Steve Smith is still a stud.

5. The Arizona secondary is in very bad shape due to multiple injuries.

Depending on how the Carolina D plays, this could even turn out to be marginally close. That’s the best I can do.

New York Giants vs. the Washington Redskins: Old Rivalries, New Team

S/U: Washington (see homer disclaimer below)

ATS: Washington +3

O/U: Under 37.5

Okay, so I don’t really think Washington will win, but they’re my guys so I have to be loyal. I do think they’ll cover, though. Eli has had a dreadful preseason and his WRs are dropping like flies. Unless Jacobs and Bradshaw can get every 1st down in the game but three, New York doesn’t have an offense right now.

Of course, the ‘Skins are starting Grossman so anything could happen. However, Santana Moss can still catch even if he’s gotten downright slow, Tim Hightower has found the scheme he was born to play, Anthony Armstrong is proving to be a legit deep threat and Banks is a sneaky return man with jets for feet. We will find out this Sunday if this offense has improved as much as we think it has as they face the Giants’ still-tough D.

A few questions will be answered about the Redskins defense, too. Even with Eli in a slump, the Giants are a grown-up NFL team, while Washington is just regrouping after a decade of disaster. Okay—more than a decade, but don’t rub it in. Much as I have the distinct feeling Shanahan is a cold egomaniacal SOB, he has turned the team into, well, into a team. And that’s something Washington has not seen in quite a while.

Minnesota Vikings vs. the San Diego Chargers: Anything Could Happen

S/U: Chargers

ATS: Chargers -8

O/U: Under 42

Nothing would make me happier than to see Donovan McNabb have a blow-it-up great season. This guy has had the worst luck: He played for a coach that couldn’t have cared less about protecting the QB or having any kind of power rush and yet also didn’t believe in hiring talent at WR. You know McNabb goes home at night and thinks, “Now Andy decides to hire top-tier receivers and a real running back?”

(No offense to the ultra-talented Brian Westbrook. But Brian is a Marshall Faulk back, not a John Riggins.)

Actually, I hope that he goes home and is just happy to be a good guy with a family and another shot. He deserves it. Of course, he also deserves an O-line—but wishin’ ain’t gettin’. It continues to mystify me that, for the past three seasons, the Vikings have had an O-line that was excellent in the run game and totally inept at pass protection. It wasn’t all Favre’s fault, folks.

And it looks as if nothing has changed in 2011. I certainly hope that No. 5’s legs are fresher than I think they are—he’s going to need them.

Of course, there is Adrian Peterson. Plus, McNabb seems to have gotten Bernard Berrian to remember how to catch a football—hallelujah! Harvin is a talent and Shincoe probably has another year in him. But if the O-line doesn’t improve, Ponder’s going to get his shot far too soon.

Meanwhile, the Chargers have it all. Except a coach. Oh, they’re got a terrific offensive coordinator and a wonderful human being. But I can’t see San Diego making it all the way with Turner. I just can’t.

There are no weaknesses on offense and no weaknesses on defense and no…well, yes there were weaknesses on special teams. Let’s see if improvement in the return game has occurred. For Southern California fans, I hope so. Otherwise, this team will put on a clinic in beautiful offense and stingy defense—and still lose. Again.

Dallas Cowboys vs. the New York Jets: 'Boys Take on the Gang

S/U: New York

ATS: New York -4

O/U: Under 40.5—it’s supposed to rain

The most blustery coach in the NFL versus the most blustery owner. America’s Team versus Gang Green. Cool. Let the entertainment begin. If you cannot enjoy this matchup, just don’t even bother to call yourself a football fan.

Tony Romo versus Mark Sanchez: a newlywed who can be a bit of a head case and a very young man with very high expectations and just a little pressure. I wouldn’t want to be either of them. But then, the chance to be a hero is right at their fingertips. Literally.

I never count on a newlywed, so this matchup is a draw. Especially since the Jets secondary is better than the Cowboys secondary (particularly with Newman hurt).

Did I mention Bruno's rule on newlywed slumps? Beware, Tony.

Everything matches up evenly except for the running game. If he stays healthy, Felix Jones is going to tear it up this season whereas I just don’t know what is ever going on with New York’s Shonn Greene. I’m starting to think that he has a touch of the “head case” too. But at least the team has four running backs of different talents, so there is recourse if Green hits a wall.

Special teams might be a factor here. Dallas’ Buehler has struggled, while I think Folk is solid—although I don’t know about new punter Conley. However, Dallas has Dez Bryant seeing some return action and he scares me to death every time he gets anywhere near the football. So don’t go to the fridge on kicks.

Social Note on This Presidential Address Night

It's nice to see two American quarterbacks of Latino/Hispanic heritage taking the field for two marquee franchises. It's not the first time (that was Romo and Garcia a few years ago). But it's heartwarming.

New England Patriots vs. the Miami Dolphins: Cringe

S/U: New England

ATS: New England -7. I hate picking against a home underdog, but I’m sorry—Miami is a mess

O/U: Under 45.5. Let’s see, it’s hurricane season in South Florida—think it might rain?

I’ve worked on television shows where you knew you were in artistic and ratings quicksand: No matter what anyone tried, you just couldn’t save it. Don’t you think that’s how Sparano has to feel right about now? The only thing on his offense that is working is Larry Johnson. Great.

Randy Moss’ return to the Pats would be great, but they don’t need him to win this one. It is beyond me how Brady can win games with a solid running game and two TEs. But he does it. He did it all year last season. Now he has Chad Ochocinco. It doesn’t matter that Chad is having a very hard time picking up the rhythm. Someone still has to cover him. And someone still has to cover Branch. Just in case they catch it.

Incidentally, Belichick has managed to convince the football world that Green-Ellis is just an average back. Over 1,000 yards last year, guys. And a bunch of TDs. Don’t believe it.

The Patriots defense is still rocky and young. But, again, it won’t matter this week. I’m sorry, I wish I could say something nice about Miami. Ummm…

Oakland Raiders vs. the Denver Broncos: Can We Play Ball in the West?

S/U: Denver

ATS: Denver -3

O/U: Over 40

Those of you on the East Coast need to TiVo this game. It is going to be interesting. The Raiders secondary is still trying to find itself after Nnamdi, the D-line and linebackers are much better than they have played in August, all of the running backs look good and Jason Campbell is doing okay.

Remember, this is a young man who has had a different offensive coordinator and scheme every year since his freshman year in college—except for twice. This is one of those two times as new head coach Jackson was the offensive coordinator last season. I wish Jason well. He has talent and I’d like to see it blossom.

Then you have the most unappreciated man in football, Kyle Orton, going quietly about throwing touchdown passes with about as much personality as a flounder. Read the stats, guys, not the vanilla press bytes. And aren’t Fox and Elway thankful that they couldn’t unload him for $9 million in August? They would be up you-know-what without a QB were it not for Orton.

Human Interest Moment

I feel so badly for Tebow. It is not his fault that the Broncos tried to believe he was something that he may, or may not, ever be but certainly is not now: a franchise QB. Tim is trying. You can tell. But he has a lot to overcome and now the team has all but thrown him on the rubbish heap. Poor guy.

Well, barring catastrophe, we will not see Mr. Tebow on the field any time soon. For the Denver offense it will be Orton, WR Brandon Lloyd, RB Moreno (if he can focus) and RB McGahee (if he can’t).

I think that the Silver and Black have the talent to stop that Denver offense; I’m simply not sure that they will. But a little voice inside me says that this Richard Seymour-led squad is the sleeping monster that will awaken at kickoff now that the games count. I’m thinking that the Denver O-line had better be ready.

The less said about the 2010 Bronco defense the better. We will learn Monday whether or not this 2011 version, coached by defensively focused headman Fox, can stop the run. Stopping the pass could go either way. They should undoubtedly be better. How much remains to be seen.

Everyone gather 'round the big TV, now.

And they're off!