Fantasy Football: Week 12 Preview, Part Two

As usual, let's start with a quick recap of last night's action.

The Steelers spent most of the game unable to get much of a running attack going against the Cincinnati front. Much of their attempt moved to a focus on short passes, using Mewelde Moore more often than I expected. Parker certainly still got his carries, and broke a couple decent plays, but Moore got the bulk of the work.

This lineup is going to make for some hard decisions for owners going forward. Personally, I'd downgrade Parker in most formats at this point.

Roethlisberger looked good. He didn't make mistakes, and that's largely what you needed on a night dictated by the weather. Tomlin worked a solid game plan, and Roethlisberger executed it very effectively in this case. Division matchups seem to have him right at home, and something to bear in mind moving to the second half of the year.

This was the first time I'd watched Fitzpatrick play. I liked a lot of things about the kid's game. His major problem is protection. He had nice rapport with Andre Caldwell, who likely bought himself some more playing time even when Chad Johnson comes back next week.

You want to know why Palmer looked awful early this season? The Cincinnati line play is abysmal, plain and simple.

FYI, the Steelers haven't allowed an opponent to crack 300 total yards all season. As an aside, how can the Steelers get away with have a field that plays like crap? They made the Patriots change to field turf, why not Pittsburgh? It's getting worked over left and right and footing on it, in bad weather in particular, is awful.

Let's get to the rest of the games.

Philadelphia at Baltimore

Who to Start: Donovan McNabb, Derrick Mason, Hank Baskett, DeSean Jackson

Who to Sit: L.J. Smith, Baltimore running backs, Joe Flacco

What to Expect: I'm torn here, really. On one hand, you should probably start a guy that has performed as well as McNabb. On the other, I'm bitter about last week (he cost me a Survivor pool and eight fantasy points).

I think that, in this case, the logical move is probably to hold off if you have better matchups. The Ravens held the Giants to 153 passing yards, and most of the damage was done on the ground.

Brian Westbrook hasn't been practicing this week, and that would add pressure to the passing game, allowing the Ravens to back off the run. That said, McNabb rarely puts up two stink-bombs in a row.

I'm trusting that he's not going to be phased by the Ravens in this one, and will put up around 260 with two touchdowns and an interception. Look for Baskett and Jackson to get in on it. These are two big-play threats, and that's how they'll be able to beat the Ravens secondary.

They don't lose much this time around if Buckhalter is in the backfield instead of Westbrook. The Eagles would have to use a short passing game as a running attack in this one regardless because of how tough the Baltimore front is. Both are capable of catching the ball well and would produce.

On the Ravens side, I avoid the running game entirely just because I don't know who will be the primary player in this one. Just doesn't make sense to mess with it this late in the season. The passing game should begin and end with Derrick Mason. Mark Clayton has been better lately, but Mason is the only one I would start, and only in deeper leagues.

Still unsure on McNabb? Pennington threw for 295, Rosenfels for 294, and even JaMarcus Russell put up 228 against Baltimore.

Sleeper Pickup: Baskett. Can stretch the field, and the Ravens are struggling in the secondary.

Oakland at Denver

Who to Start: Justin Fargas, Zach Miller, Peyton Hillis, Eddie Royal
 
Who to Sit: All other Raiders
 
What to Expect: Both teams are going to run the football here.

Justin Fargas has had decent success running against the Broncos in the past, and every team has had success running against them this season. With the struggles at the quarterback position more and more apparent in Oakland, they will need Fargas to perform in order to stay in this game.

It's all about ball control. Look for Fargas to put up 75 and a score in this one.

Zach Miller is the only piece to the passing game I'm touching. Same as every week, he's a decent outlet receiver for the guy Oakland decides to put under center.

On the Denver side, look for Peyton Hillis to take it to the house two times against one of the worst run defenses in the league. He has major upside in this one, and I think makes one of the better running back plays, potentially top-ten numbers against the Raiders.

Jay Cutler needs to be started, but he might not have luck finding Brandon Marshall. Marshall draws Asomugha, who has shut down every receiver to come his way. Look for Eddie Royal to pick up the slack and grab a touchdown.

A healthy Brandon Stokley gets one as well. Marshall's greatest value here is likely as a decoy and short possession guy. PPR leagues should still look to him, the yardage just won't be there.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Hillis. You have to love this matchup.

Carolina at Atlanta

Who to Start: Muhsin Muhammad, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Matt Ryan, Jerious Norwood
 
Who to Sit: Jake Delhomme
 
What to Expect: I'm starting almost everyone here.

Atlanta gives up big plays in the passing game, so Smith and Muhammad should make for decent plays. Delhomme, though, has managed to get himself in plenty of trouble recently, and is likely to make enough mistakes to make his play moot. I'll start Smith every time and use Muhammad as a flex in deeper leagues.

Obviously, though, Carolina's bread and butter is the running game. Use both backs this week, as there should be nothing stopping the Panthers from getting into the end zone there. Playing indoors will help them out too.

For Atlanta, you look to beat the Panthers on the ground, and they have two of the best. With Roddy White banged up, there will be more pressure on the Falcons to put the ball in the end zone using the running game. 

Turner is an obvious play, but Norwood shouldn't be overlooked in this matchup because of the injuries. I'd use him as a flex option as well, and look for him to find the end zone. Should be a good day.

Ryan is still a guy you start in deeper leagues. He's not a standard league play because of White's situation, but he hasn't disappointed and he doesn't make mistakes. Keep him active if you normally would.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Norwood. Just a feeling here.

New York Giants at Arizona

Who to Start: Tim Hightower, Ahmad Bradshaw, Steve Breaston
 
Who to Sit: Eli Manning
 
What to Expect: Eli Manning still hasn't broken 200 yards in nearly two months. He's on the road, against a decent secondary this week. The Giants are tough against the pass, but not deep in the secondary.

I'm not sold Brandon Jacobs will play this week. Even if he does, the knee injury is of enough concern that Ahmad Bradshaw jumps into a flex play in all formats this week. Bradshaw seems to be the primary ball carrier when Jacobs is hurt, with Ward getting the third-down work. In any case, the running game should account for two touchdowns here and 120 yards.

I'm still not sold on Manning as any sort of fantasy quarterback. It's time we stopped kidding ourselves here. He isn't going to break 200 yards this week either, and he's likely only throwing for one touchdown. I'll give it to Burress, though Boss is just as likely a target if it's in the red zone. Everyone seems sold on the Giants as legit. I'm just not buying.

On the Arizona side, the passing game is going to be interesting. I still think Warner is successful, it's just not going to be to Fitzgerald here. Against good pass defenses, slot receivers or third receivers tend to do well.

It's why I like Breaston in this game. I think he finds the end zone and gets 80 yards. That doesn't mean I'm benching Boldin and Fitz. Far from it.

In the running game, I'm giving Hightower one more shot at this one. Call it stupidity. I'm not using him in shallow leagues or as anything more than a RB3 in deeper leagues, but starting him isn't a bad call. If there are better options available to you, use them.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Bradshaw. He'll get the work without Jacobs.

Washington at Seattle

Who to Start: Jason Campbell, Antwaan Randle El, John Carlson, Washington Def.
 
Who to Sit: Matt Hasselbeck
 
What to Expect: The Redskins are playing Seattle. Seattle hasn't been very good.

The overall message here is that if you are starting Redskins normally, this matchup won't disappoint you. I'm going to be a believer in Campbell and Moss this week, as well as Cooley. If you're looking to reach or need some help for a potential steal, I'm liking Randle El this week as well. I like Campbell for two touchdown passes in this one.

We have seen Clinton Portis torch teams all season, and this will be no exception. Don't even have to say that this is a great matchup, but I will anyway. It's a great matchup.

On the Seattle side, we're still looking to see what Hasselbeck can do as he gets back in rhythm with the offense. It's what makes Carlson still viable in deeper leagues as a tight end. Because Hasselbeck is still seeing what he has to work with, Carlson is effective in that short yardage game.

He'll get five to seven targets a game at worse, and that makes him worth it to me. I don't like anything else surrounding the Seahawks passing attack until further notice.

In the running game, the Seahawks are in trouble. The Redskins are fifth against the run, giving up under 85 yards per game. Julius Jones isn't the guy to break through that barrier. Keep him down in this one.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Randle El. Against such a weak defense, I think even he grabs 80 yards of offense.

Indianapolis at San Diego

Who to Start: Anthony Gonzalez, Dominic Rhodes, Marvin Harrison, 
 
Who to Sit: Vincent Jackson, Chris Chambers
 
What to Expect: You beat both these teams by running the football. You can just beat San Diego more easily than Indy through the air.

Let's start with San Diego. You have to see a big game for Tomlinson in this one. Being at home is a boost initially, and Indy just cannot stop the run at all. I'd even take a look at Darren Sproles in REALLY deep leagues. He has the opportunity to score as well. But Indy has been better. They have held four of their last six opponents leading rushers under 73 yards.

The passing game is going to be tough going. This doesn't look like a matchup I would use Rivers in if I had another option. Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers are risk plays that I would avoid if there were better matchups on my bench. In most cases, there are.

For the Colts, look to get heavy doses of both Addai and Rhodes. Addai is the better play, but don't sleep on Rhodes this week. He's a good flex option or RB3 play for teams that need the help and are struggling finding decent matchups.

I'd expect Manning to be able to throw the ball effectively, and I'd keep all my Colts receivers active. I'm especially fond of the matchup for Gonzalez, as San Diego's top corners will be otherwised focused on Wayne and Harrison. This is going to be his game to do some damage.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Gonzalez. With the way Manning spreads the field, Gonzalez is in for a good game.

Green Bay at New Orleans

Who to Start: Deuce McAllister (potential injury), Pierre Thomas, Lance Moore, Jordy Nelson, Donald Lee
 
Who to Sit: Devery Henderson, Reggie Bush
 
What to Expect: Certainly do not expect a defensive struggle.

The Packers have had plenty of trouble stopping the run, and regardless of the guy in the backfield for the Saints, that makes for a good matchup. Deuce has been hurt and not practicing, and there is little indication regarding the availability of Bush for this weekend. That makes Pierre Thomas the best play as of right now. He should be cracking 85 with a score.

Drew Brees is going to be in for a tougher day than normal because of the physical nature of the Packers secondary, but should be started in all formats. You don't bench this guy.

Not a huge fan of the matchup for Colston, but I'll continue to plug Moore in there so long as he's scoring regularly. In PPR leagues, he's even better. Henderson is too hit or miss to be active in any league.

For the Packers, Ryan Grant should be able to find yards, but the end zone is going to be tough. The Saints have given up just five rushing touchdowns in 10 games this season. I'd look to see him break 100 yards, and I think he'll crack the end zone.

The scoring will be done through the air against the Saints. They give up almost 240 yards per game and have allowed 16 touchdowns in 10 games. I like Rodgers for 260 and two, looking to Nelson and Jennings. Driver would be a decent play in PPR leagues, but I'm not putting him in the end zone for this one.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Moore. Three straight with a touchdown.

Enjoy the games!