NFL Predictions 2011: 7 Factors That Will Lead Chicago Bears to the Super Bowl

The Chicago Bears ended their 2010 season in wild fashion.

Jay Cutler left the NFC Championship Game against the Green Bay Packers with a knee injury in the third quarter. His performance before leaving the game wasn't one to be excited about. Then, backup quarterback Todd Collins came in for part of a quarter before also being injured, near the end of the third quarter. 

With their backs against the wall, the Bears brought in their last hope, Caleb Hanie. Hanie had a performance so wild that fans couldn't believe what they were watching—although some Bears fans had held hopes of seeing Hanie play in the clutch for one reason or another. 

In an improbable turn, Hanie rallied the Bears into a one-possession game, throwing a touchdown pass. 

Nevertheless, Hanie couldn't save himself from himself.  He threw an interception, which almost cost them the game.  Then he gathered his reserve of calm to bring the Bears on a last-minute drive to tie or win the game—only to throw into the hands of Packers defensive back Sam Shields in the end zone.

Even though the Bears had come one magical play away from the Super Bowl, the aftermath was colored with unwarranted criticism of Cutler and head coach Lovie Smith.  Many people questioned Cutler's toughness for not returning to the game after injuring his knee, but these cries were due partly due to ignorance and partly to resentment towards a player they dislike. 

Smith came under fire for bringing their emergency quarterback into the game before the fourth quarter—as if he weren't down to his last option. 

Anyone can criticize someone for a decision they don't have to make.

The Bears enter the 2011 season under fire when they should be running on wings of joy.

How could one forget that they came one play away from the Super Bowl?

First, all attention shifted to the lockout for about six months. Second, their offseason signings were headlined by two Dallas Cowboys washouts, neither of whom are much-needed offensive lineman.

Since the Bears came that close to the Super Bowl, one must wonder if they have what it takes to make it one more step to the big game.

Following are seven factors that could lead the Bears to Super Bowl XLVI.

Jay Cutler Can Still Improve

Jay Cutler is good, but can he be great?

In 2010, Cutler managed to transcend a miserably bad offense to lead the Bears to the NFC Championship game. Cutler was sixth in the NFL in yards per pass attempt (7.6) and eighth in pass touchdown percentage (5.3%). 

He came closer to being the fantastic quarterback he had been when he was with the Denver Broncos. He threw 16 interceptions, 10 fewer than in 2009. His interception index, which measures how many interceptions a quarterback throws relative to other quarterbacks, went from 75 in 2009 to 91 in 2010, much closer to average.

Cutler could still blame a few of his interceptions on the weak Bears' offensive line. His interceptions could still be reduced.

This is helped by his newfound mobility. During his rehab from his knee injury, Cutler has worked to improve his footwork. This has led to better rhythm and mobility. Due to his new and improved legs, Cutler can escape pressure better than he could previously.

Improved mobility can give extra life a quarterback like Cutler in the middle years of his career. Cutler will be able to get out of the pocket and make throws on the run. This could lead to significantly better numbers.

Heaven knows that his biological clock ticks faster the longer he stands behind that offensive line.

Without a doubt, a Super Bowl season hinges on Cutler being better than he was in his previous two years.

Caleb Hanie Needs to Be a Reliable Backup

Caleb Hanie is a lovable backup quarterback—just like any other backup.

However, he needs to reliable when the Bears bring him into the game. The Bears could need him at any moment during the season.

Mike Martz offenses tend to get quarterbacks hit often. Thus, the Bears could be faced with the situation where Cutler is out with a concussion or other serious injury.

Part of the reason that Hanie was able to rally the Bears against the Packers in the NFC Championship was that the Packers bumbled through the fourth quarter offensively. Hanie was lucky.

The Bears were keen to pick Idaho quarterback Nathan Enderle in the fifth round of the 2011 draft. Hanie needed a little competition to improve. Hopefully, this competition inspired Hanie to improve his game.

If it didn't, and if Cutler suffers a serious injury, then the Bears are in trouble.

Forget the Running Game

Bears fans love running the ball. Bears fans love talking about the inside run and about great Bears running backs such as Walter Payton and Gale Sayers.

However, the Bears would be best served sticking with the passing game, perhaps passing on 58 percent of total offensive plays.

Running the ball is not a good option for the Bears.

First, Matt Forte is a decent running back. He ran for 1,069 yards last year, averaging 4.5 yards per attempt.  He averaged 14.8 rushes per game, which is about right. Relying on him any more would be a misuse, because he isn't a game changer like Cleveland's Peyton Hillis or Tennessee's Chris Johnson.

Second, Marion Barber is an uninspiring second-string running back.  Due to his physical running style—which fits the ideals of Bears faithful—he has hit the autumn of his career earlier than others.  Barber ran for only 374 yards on 3.3 yards per carry in 2010.

He will likely gain fewer yards this year, which means that the Bears do not have a reliable change-of-pace back—unless by some stroke of luck Kahlil Bell becomes that back.

If the Bears are to fly, then they must stay with the air attack.

Johnny Knox and Devin Hester Need to Play Their Roles Right

Johnny Knox and Devin Hester need to be on track so the Bears don't step on themselves,.

Knox needs to continue his rise. Surprisingly, Knox became a fantastic receiver in 2010, catching 51 passes for 961 yards, the most receiving yards for a Bears wide receiver since Marty Booker in 2002.

His reward from offensive coordinator Mike Martz was to be dropped in the depth chart behind Cowboys outcast Roy Williams. Knox might jump Williams in the depth chart because at this point in his career Williams is simply not as good as Knox. Martz dropped Knox in the depth chart primarily to motivate Knox to take the next step.

If that did provide the needed motivation, then Knox could join the elite ranks among NFL receivers.

Hester will need to reinvent himself in the era of the new kickoff rules. Hester needs to learn to kneel the ball in the end zone whenever he needs to. Since he has lacked the awareness to make good decisions at times, someone might need to stand by him and tell him to kneel.

If he doesn't adjust well, then the Bears could start drives with very bad field position.

As far as Hester's receiving is concerned, he could garner more yards, but he does fairly well for his role.

He simply needs to minimize mistakes in order to avoid costing the Bears wins.

Pray the Offensive Line Is Passable

Gabe Carimi might be a godsend, but he isn't the second coming of Jesus Christ.

Carimi—or Bear Jew, as his teammates nicknamed him—will be a good NFL lineman, but no one can hold up an entire offensive line by himself.

Just ask Joe Thomas.

The Bears offensive line is a bit worse than it was last year. Roberto Garza and Frank Omiyale don't have the magic they once did. J'Marcus Webb is a horrible blocker. Chris Williams is good, but he won't save his partners. Fortunately, tight ends Kellen Davis and Matt Spaeth can block.

Also, it's a good thing that Jay Cutler can get out of the pocket. Once again, he will need it behind this line.

The Bears have good blockers, but the line is bad as a group.

The offensive line needs some magic to help Cutler carry the Bears.

Robbie Gould Needs to Center Himself

Robbie Gould needs to be more accurate.

After improving progressively in his first few years, Gould fell off last season.

Gould made 83.3 percent on field goals, which is reasonable for most kickers, but not good enough for someone who has been one of the most reliable kickers in the NFL.

On the bright side, Gould began hitting field goals from 50 yards or more, which brings him officially to the forefront among NFL kickers.

Gould needs to continue to hit from 50 yards and needs to be more accurate if the Bears are to go deep into the playoffs.

Adam Podlesh Needs to Be Strong Placing Punts

Adam Podlesh is a good punter, but he isn't what Brad Maynard was to the Bears.

Maynard could pin defenses back, dropping punts deep into the other team's end like few others could.

Last year, Podlesh placed 28 punts inside the 20 for the Jaguars, a good but not great number. 

The Bears defense will need help from Podlesh. He will need to punt longer than his 43.8-yard average last year and will need to place the ball a bit better to be a difference maker.

Prediction

Prediction: 10-6 Lose in Wild Card Round

The Bears will be able to manage on the wings of Jay Cutler despite their porous offensive line. 

Teams can make it with star power. Cutler has that star power. He will improve on last year, as will Johnny Knox.

Cutler will throw for 3,500 yards and fewer than 15 interceptions. 

Knox will have a 1,000-yard season. 

Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher will have another great season on defense. 

Robbie Gould will be a bit better. 

It'll be a good year, but they won't be able to make it to the Super Bowl.