College Football Realignment: Will We See the SEC 16, Big 16 and ACC 16?

“The Train Wreck of the Super Conferences is Fast Approaching.” 

Money, money, money, this ain’t funny, the football world is turning upside down.

Before the super conferences have even chosen sides, we can look into the future and see from the reflection of the past the train wreck that is coming. The WAC tried a 16 team conference in 1996 that lasted only until the creation of the Mountain West in 1998. What does that tell you?

The PCC (now the PAC) tried 10 and couldn’t do it. The reasons for the fall out were simple. Long travel distances for both teams and fans. Multiple time zones that had some teams playing at nine in the evening at their home time in an away game. Fans were falling asleep before half time.  

The “travels well” turned into “does not travel” as expenses in air fare sky rocketed for those trying to follow a team. Old rivalries were replaced with “What’s their mascot? It’s a what?” 

Experience showed that regional pride and prominence was lost and diluted. The schools in strong recruiting areas excelled, along with schools with large endowments and big state budgets.

The smaller schools, got smaller, and smaller, and…faded away to become the door mat or relegated to an inferior conference. The pressure quickly led to dividing the conference into two divisions and four quadrants with four teams each.

Nobody was happy with it. The result: lost interest by fans and lost fan support.  

Does Texas A&M think that playing Kentucky or Tennessee will be exciting to their fans when those fans can’t afford the time or expense to drive to the game, or fly? What about Texas and Oklahoma State flying to play a game with Washington State?

It won’t all be about A&M versus Arkansas or LSU, and Oklahoma versus USC. TCU in the Big East is laughable. Who cares if they are playing Connecticut, Cincinnati or South Florida?  

Texans want to see TCU playing Baylor, A&M playing Texas, Texas Tech, SMU, Oklahoma and…wait, wasn’t there a conference like that called the Southwest Conference? What happened? 

Money. Even though TCU could hold its own with two national championships, the schools drifted apart in size and the endowments that made the schools what they are. The same went for Montana and the University of Idaho, former members of the PAC-12. With current enrollments of 15,000 and 12,000 respectively, they couldn’t compete with schools like UCLA, who has 40,000 students, or University of Washington’s 47,000 students. Nor could they compete with Stanford’s 12.6 billion or USC’s 2.6 billion in endowment funds. 

Parity in a conference is found not only on the football field. On any given day, any team can beat any other team, Appalachian State proved that against Michigan in 2007, as did James Madison in 2010 against Virginia Tech. Oregon State found that out against Sacramento State last week and national champion Auburn nearly joined that club if an onside kick had not fallen into their hands.  

School parity that develops long standing rivalries and fan interest isn’t only on the football field. It is within a population. BYU-Utah, affectionately known as “the Y” and “the U” in Utah, is a great rivalry because of their location and population competition. The same with Alabama-Auburn, USC-UCLA, Florida-Florida State, Michigan-Michigan State, Colorado-Colorado State, Texas-Texas A&M, Oklahoma-Oklahoma State and many others.  

Is there really an interest in Los Angeles that Baylor, or Texas Tech or Oklahoma State is coming to town to play? Not much. I was born in LA, and grew up there, and the excitement was always about UCLA-USC, Washington, Cal or Stanford and who will play in the Rose Bowl. The lack of interest will translate into attendance, and TV ratings, and memorabilia sales, and everything else that surrounds the game. The PAC (formerly known as the PCC) learned that with Montana and Idaho.

Size and fan interest matters.  So does competitive balance. 

If you go into a grocery store in Texas you see Texas and Texas A&M shirts, sweaters, and caps for sale. It is heated to see someone pick out one, and you even hear a friendly jab now and then. It’s what makes the rivalry so great and so fun. The camaraderie with opposing fans. We are Texans.

Will that exist as Texas whups-up on Oregon State? Ho hum. “Catch the game? Yea, we won. How boring.” 

And in the end, that boredom, like in the WAC two decades ago and PCC (PAC), will kill the conferences. Because, in the end, who will care that Oklahoma State, or Texas Tech, is playing Oregon State, Washington State, or Arizona? Not the fans, and like the saying goes, “they pay the bills.” And when they lose interest, the conferences will come to a screeching halt at a dead end.