New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins: Week 1 Match-Up Breakdown

While the 2011 NFL season officially kicks off Thursday night when the Green Bay Packers take on the New Orleans Saints, most of the NFL will have to wait until Sunday to take the field.

Fans of the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins have the distinct pleasure of waiting an extra day to see their teams square off on Monday Night Football. An extra day of eye-gouging, hair-ripping analysis. Sweet.

Let's at least take advantage of it by going in-depth with both teams, exploring the possibilities in every phase and every aspect of the game. What else is there to do?

Erik Frenz is the co-host of the PatsPropaganda and Frenz podcast. Follow Erik on Twitter @erikfrenz.

Patriots Pass Attack vs. Dolphins Pass Defense

The first thing you look at in a breakdown of a pass attack is the quarterback. Tom Brady, one of the best there is in the game, always gives New England a chance to win.

There are times when it's not on him, though. The protection is the big thing to keep an eye on. This match-up will come down to the play in the trenches.

I could write a whole article on this match-up alone (maybe I will) but I'll spare you the long-winded stat-heavy response right now. Ultimately, this one will come down to Miami's ability to disrupt the Patriots pass attack.

It's not all about sacks, though, as the Patriots have gone 10-3 since 2009 in games where Brady is sacked multiple times. Two of those losses came in the playoffs against teams that were stacked with talent across the board, and the other came in a one-point loss to the Colts in which the loss fell more on the shoulders of a porous Patriots defense than the offensive line.

The Patriots receivers are admittedly at a huge size disadvantage to the Dolphins corners, as the Patriots receivers give up an average of two inches on Dolphins defensive backs.

That being said, the Dolphins ranked 28th in the league at defending tight ends according to these numbers from Football Outsiders, and had trouble in coverage overall.

They ranked 28th in the league against tight ends, and as we all know, the Patriots have two very good ones in Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski. The duo has had a strong training camp and preseason, and that should continue Monday night against a Dolphins defense.

Ultimately, this match-up will come down to the battle of the trenches. That battle is so close, that it could swing this game in either direction.

Advantage: Patriots

Patriots Rush Attack vs. Dolphins Rush Defense

There were multiple factors in play with the previous match-up, but this one's pretty straightforward. It will all boil down to which team controls the line of scrimmage better.

The Patriots can't become one-dimensional. The Dolphins simply have too much talent in the front seven with guys like Cameron Wake capable of disrupting the passing game. They must round it out with a legitimate rush attack.

That being said, the Dolphins did a great job of stopping the run last year, but couldn't make it translate to winning football games. They allowed just 3.58 yards per carry in 2010, a good number, but still went 7-9 and lost seven of those games when holding an opponent to below 100 yards rushing.

Although the Patriots ran for 4.35 yards per carry, it's less about their stout run-blocking offensive line (which they don't have) than it is about their ability to step on the gas and dictate the tempo. The Patriots rushed for over 100 yards the last eight weeks of the season as they rolled over every opponent they faced while getting off to an early lead.  

The Dolphins won't win the game simply by shutting down New England's rush attack, but their inability to stop the pass attack could mean another notch in the loss column by default.

Advantage: Patriots 

Dolphins Pass Attack vs. Patriots Pass Defense

The Patriots had one of the league's worst pass defenses last year, but is it really worth it to even talk about? So much has changed for the Patriots, from both a personnel and a scheme perspective, to draw any correlation between last year and this year. The defense we will see take the field on September 12 will be almost entirely different from the one we saw take the field in 2010.

With a defensive scheme that will be predicated on creating pressure and attacking Miami's offensive line, the pressure will be on the guys up front to make the right reads and to play their tails off to stop the vicious rush from guys like Albert Haynesworth, Vince Wilfork, Andre Carter, Shaun Ellis and others.

One guy I'm looking for to have a big season is Jerod Mayo. Playing outside linebacker in the 4-3, he will likely be uncovered a lot more often than he was as a middle linebacker in the 3-4. That will allow him to fly off the edge at the quarterback, even if just on occasion. His tackle totals may be down, but he will certainly be in position to have a higher sack total.

For the Dolphins, though, it doesn't come down to just their protection. Chad Henne has to be smart with the football and not make big mistakes like he did the last time these two teams squared off on Monday Night Football. Henne had a 3.9 percent rate of interceptions last year, and a well-below-average 75.4 passer rating. 

If there's one chance to exploit the Patriots, it's on the deep ball. They have recently released two of their three key safeties in their rotation, and have a lack of depth on the back end of their defense.

Guys like Sergio Brown and Josh Barrett could be asked to step up, but with very little game experience, they are still big question marks. The Dolphins would be wise to test them out early.

Overall, it looks like the Patriots defense has made improvements, at least from what they were last year. The fact of the matter, though, is that the Patriots pass defense could be as porous as it was last year, and if Henne hasn't improved over where he was last year, the Patriots pass defense will likely still give him fits.

Advantage: Patriots

Dolphins Rush Attack vs. Patriots Rush Defense

This is another area with a lot of turnover on both sides. The Dolphins added Reggie Bush via trade this offseason, and bid farewell to both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, their bellcows in the backfield for the past few years. Bush certainly adds a new dynamic to the offense with his ability to catch passes out of the backfield, but how much he'll impact the running game remains a question mark.

The Patriots weren't a great run defense last year, and could actually take a step back in that regard with the 4-3 as they focus less on the run in favor of disrupting the passing game more effectively.

The Dolphins weren't a very effective running football team last year, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. The Dolphins are hoping to get more out of their attack by adding Mike Pouncey inside, but Bush has never been an effective inside runner anyway. Bush's durability issues have to be a red flag for the Dolphins not to run him into the pile too frequently in his first time out there.

Bush could also be a change-of-pace back to Daniel Thomas, who is more of a between-the-tackles power back. The Dolphins have a multi-faceted backfield, and that makes this an interesting match-up. That being said, the complete turnover in the backfield and new faces on the line of scrimmage for both teams make this one impossible to predict at this stage.

Advantage: Unknown 

Special Teams

The Patriots have been through quite a few long snappers over the past year, including Jake Ingram, Matt Katula, James Dearth and are now on Danny Aiken. Whether the rapid fire changes at long snapper will come back to haunt them remains to be seen, but the bond between the trio of specialists (kicker, punter and long snapper) can't be understated.

It's the sole reason the Chargers were a 9-7 team last year and not wildly more successful.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, have consistency on their side. The trio of long snapper John Denney, kicker Dan Carpenter and punter Brandon Fields has been together since 2008. That being said, consistency came unraveled in Week 4 of the 2010 season when the Patriots exposed several weaknesses in Miami's special teams.

The Patriots turned three special teams plays into points. Although one of those came from the recently-released Brandon Tate, the weaknesses of Miami's special teams may be a lingering concern, and the Patriots certainly know how to open up those weaknesses.

Advantage: Patriots

Coaching

The Dolphins beat the Packers and Jets last year, on the road. They also hung with the Pittsburgh Steelers, losing to them by a point on a very iffy call. They hung with the Jets in their other game, too, losing by just four points at home to the Jets.

The only team the Dolphins couldn't hang with? The New England Patriots. They lost both of those games by 27 and 31 points, respectively. 

Bill Belichick holds a 4-2 advantage over Tony Sparano in their duels, and one of those losses came in the infamous Wildcat game in which the Dolphins completely blindsided the Patriots with a gameplan straight out of college.

Barring another Wildcat-like surprise, it's safe to say this advantage lies firmly in the Patriots court.

Advantage: Patriots

Conclusion

A lot like Tom Brady's 2010 MVP campaign, the vote is unanimous. There isn't a single area where the Dolphins hold an advantage over the Patriots, and though the advantage may be minimal in a few categories, the fact remains that the Dolphins are fighting an uphill battle on their home field in Week 1.

The key factor in this game will be the trench play of the Dolphins defense against the Patriots offense. As mentioned earlier, that battle is close enough to where it could swing the game either direction. If the Dolphins are able to control the line of scrimmage and get some pressure on Brady while at least disrupting the patterns of the Patriots receivers, they could have a fighting chance.

Final prediction: Patriots win 24-21